Yield curve and business cycle dynamics in South Africa: new evidence from a Markov switching model
- Authors: Rotich, Mercyline Chepkemoi
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Yield curve , Business cycles South Africa , Markov processes , Recessions South Africa , Multivariate analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434739 , vital:73101
- Description: Globally, several empirical studies have demonstrated the ability of the yield spread to predict a recession in a country. In South Africa, previous studies have not only shown the yield curve's predictive power but have further demonstrated that it outperforms other commonly used variables, such as the growth rate of real money supply, changes in stock prices, and the index of leading economic indicators. However, some recent studies have shown that the yield spread (the spread between 10-year bonds and 3-month Treasury bills) gave false signals of recession. In this study, we explore the possible reasons for the false signals of the yield spread by addressing the following questions. Does the yield spread used matter? Does the measure of the business cycle used matter? And do the estimation techniques used matter? To address the first question, unlike the previous studies, this paper uses four different yield spreads- depicting short-term, medium-term, and long-term government bonds against the backdrop of a changing structure of bond holding, which reflects the increasing risk eversion of investors in South Africa. Second, the paper used different measures of business cycles, namely industrial production index, lagging, coincident, and leading economic indicators. The empirical models were estimated using both univariate and multivariate Markov switching models. As economic theory suggests, the univariate Markov switching model was used to determine if each variable exhibits a significant regime switching. The multivariate Markov switching model was estimated for each business cycle and yield spread variable, with each of the other variables serving as a non-switching explanatory variable, thereby addressing potential endogeneity concerns and the predictive power of the explanatory variable. Finally, the multivariate Markov switching model was estimated for three monthly sample periods, a full sample for 1986 to 2022, and two sub-samples – 1986 to 2009 and 2010 to 2022. This analysis consistently reveals significant regime-switching behavior across all the series thus, affirming the superiority of the regime switching model over the standard model used in previous studies. By analyzing the transition probabilities and the expected durations between these regimes, we find that including the spreads in the business cycle model improves the models’ predictability, with the medium-term bonds spread performing better than the usual long-term spread. The smoothed regime probability of the best-performing models is compared with the SARB recession dates; the two closely resemble each other, proving that the Markov switching model can help predict the turning points in the business cycle in South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
- Authors: Rotich, Mercyline Chepkemoi
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Yield curve , Business cycles South Africa , Markov processes , Recessions South Africa , Multivariate analysis
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434739 , vital:73101
- Description: Globally, several empirical studies have demonstrated the ability of the yield spread to predict a recession in a country. In South Africa, previous studies have not only shown the yield curve's predictive power but have further demonstrated that it outperforms other commonly used variables, such as the growth rate of real money supply, changes in stock prices, and the index of leading economic indicators. However, some recent studies have shown that the yield spread (the spread between 10-year bonds and 3-month Treasury bills) gave false signals of recession. In this study, we explore the possible reasons for the false signals of the yield spread by addressing the following questions. Does the yield spread used matter? Does the measure of the business cycle used matter? And do the estimation techniques used matter? To address the first question, unlike the previous studies, this paper uses four different yield spreads- depicting short-term, medium-term, and long-term government bonds against the backdrop of a changing structure of bond holding, which reflects the increasing risk eversion of investors in South Africa. Second, the paper used different measures of business cycles, namely industrial production index, lagging, coincident, and leading economic indicators. The empirical models were estimated using both univariate and multivariate Markov switching models. As economic theory suggests, the univariate Markov switching model was used to determine if each variable exhibits a significant regime switching. The multivariate Markov switching model was estimated for each business cycle and yield spread variable, with each of the other variables serving as a non-switching explanatory variable, thereby addressing potential endogeneity concerns and the predictive power of the explanatory variable. Finally, the multivariate Markov switching model was estimated for three monthly sample periods, a full sample for 1986 to 2022, and two sub-samples – 1986 to 2009 and 2010 to 2022. This analysis consistently reveals significant regime-switching behavior across all the series thus, affirming the superiority of the regime switching model over the standard model used in previous studies. By analyzing the transition probabilities and the expected durations between these regimes, we find that including the spreads in the business cycle model improves the models’ predictability, with the medium-term bonds spread performing better than the usual long-term spread. The smoothed regime probability of the best-performing models is compared with the SARB recession dates; the two closely resemble each other, proving that the Markov switching model can help predict the turning points in the business cycle in South Africa. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
Willingness to pay for marine-based tourism within the Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve, Mozambique
- Authors: Daly, Clare Amelie Keating
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique -- Marketing , Ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Coastal zone management -- Mozambique , Marine resources conservation -- Mozambique
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1102 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013304
- Description: Marine and coastal ecosystems face widespread degradation largely because market failure hides the economic value of the goods and services provided by them. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can serve as a structure that ensures the continuing function of marine and coastal ecosystem goods and services. Yet, to be effective and sustainable, MPAs must be able to prove their economic worth and generate revenue. User-fees are a common system used to partially finance multi-use MPAs. This study applies contingent valuation as a method of economic valuation within an MPA in southern Mozambique. The objectives of this study are to determine the willingness to pay of combined user groups and of individual user groups for use of the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve and to investigate the potential for the reserve to increase revenues for conservation through the implementation of a user-fee for marine based activities. The payment card contingent valuation method was employed to determine willingness to pay of dolphin swim tourists, scuba divers and fishermen. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews of 120 respondents within two popular tourist locations in the PPMR. Results show that visitors within the PPMR are mainly South Africans, loyal to the area. Probit and OLS regressions were used to determine the effects of various independent variables on willingness to pay. Results from the Probit model indicate that African residency, activity and environmental awareness were significant factors that influenced visitors being WTP more than R20 per person per day as a user fee within the PPMR. The OLS model examined independent variables that influenced visitors being willing to pay as well as the impact of the variables on the amount visitors were willing to pay. The OLS model found income, African residency and environmental awareness to be significant factors influencing visitors being willing to pay. The mean WTP was R43.75 per person per day. Using data supplied by the PPMR, conservative estimated annual revenues based on the implementation of this fee amount would range between R1.46m – R 3.3m.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Daly, Clare Amelie Keating
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Ponto do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Marine ecotourism -- Mozambique -- Marketing , Ecotourism -- Economic aspects -- Mozambique , Coastal zone management -- Mozambique , Marine resources conservation -- Mozambique
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1102 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013304
- Description: Marine and coastal ecosystems face widespread degradation largely because market failure hides the economic value of the goods and services provided by them. Marine protected areas (MPAs) can serve as a structure that ensures the continuing function of marine and coastal ecosystem goods and services. Yet, to be effective and sustainable, MPAs must be able to prove their economic worth and generate revenue. User-fees are a common system used to partially finance multi-use MPAs. This study applies contingent valuation as a method of economic valuation within an MPA in southern Mozambique. The objectives of this study are to determine the willingness to pay of combined user groups and of individual user groups for use of the Ponta do Ouro Partial Marine Reserve and to investigate the potential for the reserve to increase revenues for conservation through the implementation of a user-fee for marine based activities. The payment card contingent valuation method was employed to determine willingness to pay of dolphin swim tourists, scuba divers and fishermen. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews of 120 respondents within two popular tourist locations in the PPMR. Results show that visitors within the PPMR are mainly South Africans, loyal to the area. Probit and OLS regressions were used to determine the effects of various independent variables on willingness to pay. Results from the Probit model indicate that African residency, activity and environmental awareness were significant factors that influenced visitors being WTP more than R20 per person per day as a user fee within the PPMR. The OLS model examined independent variables that influenced visitors being willing to pay as well as the impact of the variables on the amount visitors were willing to pay. The OLS model found income, African residency and environmental awareness to be significant factors influencing visitors being willing to pay. The mean WTP was R43.75 per person per day. Using data supplied by the PPMR, conservative estimated annual revenues based on the implementation of this fee amount would range between R1.46m – R 3.3m.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Why has South Africa been relatively unsuccessful at attracting inward foreign direct investment since 1994?
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Fulton, Mark Hugh John
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- Africa, Southern , Investments, Foreign -- Chile , Investments, Foreign -- Botswana , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic development -- Developing countries , Political corruption -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy -- 1994-
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1097 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013056
- Description: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into South Africa have been very low for several decades, and this research examines the reason(s) why this has been the case since 1994. There is a common belief amongst economists that there is a positive relationship between the amount of FDI received and economic growth, thus the desire to attract greater FDI inflows. A literature review was conducted to establish the determinants of FDI globally and then data were collected and assessed to test which causes are most important. The performance of developing nations in attracting FDI was first compared with that of the developed nations. Thereafter, a regional breakdown of FDI flows was presented, with a particular focus on the Southern African region. FDI inflows to South Africa since 1994 were compared against the identified determinants of FDI, as well as with FDI inflows into two other major mining economies, Chile and Botswana. The friendliness of the government towards business was identified as a significant determinant of FDI inflows and the importance of this factor in explaining FDI inflows into environment in South Africa was looked at in more depth. It was found that many investors perceive the South African government as hostile towards business and as corrupt and/or inefficient. The empirical results show that this negative perception helps explain the FDI inflows attracted by South Africa since 1994. Therefore, increased friendliness to business by the government should increase future inward FDI flows into South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Water footprint and economic water productivity of citrus production: a comparison across three river valleys in the Eastern Cape Milands
- Authors: Danckwerts, Lindsay
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Water in agriculture -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water consumption -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus fruit industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/141064 , vital:37941
- Description: South Africa is a semi-arid, water scarce country. The nation has suffered a spate of severe droughts in several regions in recent years, which have significantly impacted the country’s economy. Global warming, population growth, and rising demand for water intensive products are only expected to intensify water supply problems in the future. The agricultural industry is the largest consumer of water in South Africa, accounting for the majority of total surface water withdrawals. As such, the agricultural sector is faced with complex and difficult management decisions in the face of a potential water supply crisis. The water footprint (WF) and economic water productivity (EWP) of citrus production across three river catchments located in the Eastern Cape Midlands (situated in the vicinity of the settlements of Adelaide, Cookhouse and Fort Beaufort respectively) were calculated and compared. In the long-term average (LTA), blue WF weighted across all three regions accounted for the greatest proportion of total WF (53%), followed in turn by green and grey WF (30% and 17% respectively). LTA blue and grey WF was lowest in the Adelaide region, while green WF was smallest in the Fort Beaufort region. Blue, green and grey WF were found to be greatest in the Cookhouse region. LTA EWP was greatest in the Fort Beaufort region and smallest in the Adelaide region. Of all variety groups assessed, lemons were found to have the lowest LTA crop water use and blue, green and grey WF when considering citrus production averaged across all three study regions. Satsumas has the second smallest LTA blue, green and grey WF, followed by navels, mid-season mandarins, and finally, late mandarins. Lemons had the greatest LTA EWP of all varieties, followed in turn by satsumas, late mandarins, mid-season mandarins and navels. Blue crop water use was consistently lowest in the designated wet year and highest in the dry year. However, this same trend was not necessarily true for WF findings. WF and EWP are useful indicators of water use which can be used to help guide complex water management decisions. However, these indicators are single-factor productivity measures applied in a multi-factor environment. It is therefore important that factors outside of water use are considered when making water management decisions. Moreover, it is important to examine the impact that the various components making up WF and EWP have on the resultant figures, rather than merely considering the superficial results themselves. Factors such as CWU, orchard maturity, crop choice, potential yield, climate, irrigation system, economic return, water allocation and water availability should all be taken into account.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Danckwerts, Lindsay
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Water in agriculture -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water consumption -- South Africa -- Economic aspects , Water supply, Agricultural -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Citrus fruit industry -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/141064 , vital:37941
- Description: South Africa is a semi-arid, water scarce country. The nation has suffered a spate of severe droughts in several regions in recent years, which have significantly impacted the country’s economy. Global warming, population growth, and rising demand for water intensive products are only expected to intensify water supply problems in the future. The agricultural industry is the largest consumer of water in South Africa, accounting for the majority of total surface water withdrawals. As such, the agricultural sector is faced with complex and difficult management decisions in the face of a potential water supply crisis. The water footprint (WF) and economic water productivity (EWP) of citrus production across three river catchments located in the Eastern Cape Midlands (situated in the vicinity of the settlements of Adelaide, Cookhouse and Fort Beaufort respectively) were calculated and compared. In the long-term average (LTA), blue WF weighted across all three regions accounted for the greatest proportion of total WF (53%), followed in turn by green and grey WF (30% and 17% respectively). LTA blue and grey WF was lowest in the Adelaide region, while green WF was smallest in the Fort Beaufort region. Blue, green and grey WF were found to be greatest in the Cookhouse region. LTA EWP was greatest in the Fort Beaufort region and smallest in the Adelaide region. Of all variety groups assessed, lemons were found to have the lowest LTA crop water use and blue, green and grey WF when considering citrus production averaged across all three study regions. Satsumas has the second smallest LTA blue, green and grey WF, followed by navels, mid-season mandarins, and finally, late mandarins. Lemons had the greatest LTA EWP of all varieties, followed in turn by satsumas, late mandarins, mid-season mandarins and navels. Blue crop water use was consistently lowest in the designated wet year and highest in the dry year. However, this same trend was not necessarily true for WF findings. WF and EWP are useful indicators of water use which can be used to help guide complex water management decisions. However, these indicators are single-factor productivity measures applied in a multi-factor environment. It is therefore important that factors outside of water use are considered when making water management decisions. Moreover, it is important to examine the impact that the various components making up WF and EWP have on the resultant figures, rather than merely considering the superficial results themselves. Factors such as CWU, orchard maturity, crop choice, potential yield, climate, irrigation system, economic return, water allocation and water availability should all be taken into account.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Volatility transmission across South African financial markets: does the bull – bear distinction matter?
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Jaramba, Toddy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Foreign exchange -- Mathematical models , Bond market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1106 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013396
- Description: The volatility transmission in financial markets has important implications for investment decision making, portfolio diversification and overall macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses volatility transmission across four South African financial markets that is the stock, bond, money and foreign exchange markets, using daily data for the period 2000-2010. It also shows whether the volatilities in the SA financial markets present a different behaviour in bull and bear market phases. The effects of the international markets volatility to the local markets volatility was also looked at in this study. To obtain estimates of market volatility, the study experimented with various volatility models that include the GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH. To examine volatility interaction and the transmission of volatility shocks, a VAR model was estimated together with block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The study found that there is limited volatility transmission across the SA financial markets. The study also found that the money market is the most exogenous of all markets since the other three financial markets volatility is insignificant to the money market (see impulse response results). For the bond market, volatility transmission was characterized with a decreasing trend. With regard to international markets volatility, it concluded that, the shocks in the international markets will eventually affect the movement in the local markets. The results also highlighted that, world and local markets are important in accelerating the volatility transmission in SA financial markets depending on whether they are in their bull or bear phases. In the case of South Africa, the study found that volatility transmission across markets is higher during bear market periods than bull market periods. Basing on the study results which show that the volatility transmission is limited across SA financial markets, the implication to local and international investors is that there is a greater potential for diversifying risk by investing in different South African financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Volatility spillovers and determinants of contagion: a case of BRICS equity and foreign exchange markets
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Volatility , BRIC countries , Financial crises , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Nyopa, Tšepiso
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Volatility , BRIC countries , Financial crises , Regression analysis
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/164590 , vital:41146
- Description: This study investigates the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) using Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index. The study also identifies macroeconomic fundamentals that can enhance contagion in these markets using panel dynamic ordinary least squares regressions. The study spans the period from 1997 to 2018. We find that there are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The spillover indexes also indicate significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets. This provides evidence for contagion during crises periods. We also find that fundamental indicators and trade linkages are major drivers of increased volatility spillovers (contagion) in BRICS; and global risk indicators, such as VIX and oil prices, explain volatility spillovers in BRICS. These results hold across both equities and foreign exchange markets. , Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Unearthing the essence of nature and the perception of the natural landscape among the amaXhosa in the Eastern Cape : an exploratory study
- Authors: Mogano, Lydia Lehlogonolo
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Xhosa (African people) -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Conservation of natural resources -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Biodiversity conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Cultural pluralism -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Human ecology -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1072 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007742
- Description: The recognition of the close link between the lifestyles of 'indigenous' and 'local' people and biodiversity is widely acknowledged as crucial, not only for the survival of biological diversity but also for the protection of cultural diversity. Most discussions centre on the argument that cultural diversity can, through a wide variety of uses and practices, sustain and conserve biodiversity, particularly in many developing countries. However, local people's relationship with natural landscapes and the extent to which they value biodiversity has not been fully explored and is in most cases misunderstood, which in fact undermines the bio-cultural diversity link. This misunderstanding exists primarily because the majority of environmental or ecological research conducted so far has been oriented towards economic valuation, in quantifying the estimated value of plants and fauna utilised by local people. As a result, biodiversity is primarily treated as a commodity, with wild harvested plant products being classified as either having subsistence, or commercial and medicinal value. This approach is narrow and conceals the critical, profound noneconomic values of biodiversity among local communities in everyday life. Literature indicates that biodiversity and natural landscapes also include less tangible values such as spiritual, cultural, psychological and social values (e.g., sense of place, place attachment, and psychologically restorative effects) which are crucial to human well-being. This suggests that human-nature interaction is complex, and that the meanings and values that people ascribe to natural landscapes cannot be solely reduced to economic values. Nevertheless, to date, studies investigating these less tangible values have received little attention in South Africa. As a result, we have very little understanding of what local and indigenous communities value or appreciate with regard to natural landscapes, beyond their general economic significance. This study seeks to address this particular limitation by exploring non-economic values of natural landscapes and their significances to local people while illuminating the complexities inherent in human-nature interactions. I argue that the purely economic valuation of natural resources is simplistic and biased, and therefore does not represent the complete meaning and significance that natural resources may hold for local communities and households. Therefore, this study takes an innovative psychological approach to explore in detail the everyday lived experiences of the amaXhosa in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. It seeks to investigate the cultural, spiritual, and psychological values that ordinary people attach to natural landscapes in the peri-urban and urban communities of Ndlambe Village l and Grahamstown respectively. This research also aims to study the general perceptions of and meanings ascribed to the natural landscape (referred to by the amaXhosa as ihlathi lesiXhosa). In addition, it carefully integrates the Phenomenological and Transactional approaches to investigate how the amaXhosa engage, interact, and find meaning within the natural landscape. Furthermore, the study explores the impact of such landscape experiences on local people's spiritual and psychological well-being, demonstrating it link to bio-cultural diversity and conservation. The major findings in this study reflect that ihlathi lesiXhosa provides a place for peace and tranquillity to enhance psychological restoration. Moreover, ihlathi contributes towards redefining and strengthening personal and cultural identity; and provides spiritual satisfaction in everyday life. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that i!liathi lesiXhosa plays a profound role in both the personal and social lives of many amaXhosa in the Eastern Cape in that it appears to improve their lives. Therefore, the evidence in this study suggests that, among the amaXhosa, biodiversity and natural landscape management processes should not aim to address and promote ecologicallbiological and economic values in a compartmentalized manner independent of other social, cultural, psychological, and more specifically the spiritual values of these features. An increased understanding of these more intangible values and local people's value system of biodiversity could help towards implementing improved biodiversity conservation and landscape management strategies in South Africa. These insights would not only help us to address the challenges of the previous conservation framework but would also encourage a more inclusive, mutual benefiting process that respects local people's values and needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Mogano, Lydia Lehlogonolo
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Xhosa (African people) -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Conservation of natural resources -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Biodiversity conservation -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Cultural pluralism -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Human-plant relationships -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Human ecology -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1072 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007742
- Description: The recognition of the close link between the lifestyles of 'indigenous' and 'local' people and biodiversity is widely acknowledged as crucial, not only for the survival of biological diversity but also for the protection of cultural diversity. Most discussions centre on the argument that cultural diversity can, through a wide variety of uses and practices, sustain and conserve biodiversity, particularly in many developing countries. However, local people's relationship with natural landscapes and the extent to which they value biodiversity has not been fully explored and is in most cases misunderstood, which in fact undermines the bio-cultural diversity link. This misunderstanding exists primarily because the majority of environmental or ecological research conducted so far has been oriented towards economic valuation, in quantifying the estimated value of plants and fauna utilised by local people. As a result, biodiversity is primarily treated as a commodity, with wild harvested plant products being classified as either having subsistence, or commercial and medicinal value. This approach is narrow and conceals the critical, profound noneconomic values of biodiversity among local communities in everyday life. Literature indicates that biodiversity and natural landscapes also include less tangible values such as spiritual, cultural, psychological and social values (e.g., sense of place, place attachment, and psychologically restorative effects) which are crucial to human well-being. This suggests that human-nature interaction is complex, and that the meanings and values that people ascribe to natural landscapes cannot be solely reduced to economic values. Nevertheless, to date, studies investigating these less tangible values have received little attention in South Africa. As a result, we have very little understanding of what local and indigenous communities value or appreciate with regard to natural landscapes, beyond their general economic significance. This study seeks to address this particular limitation by exploring non-economic values of natural landscapes and their significances to local people while illuminating the complexities inherent in human-nature interactions. I argue that the purely economic valuation of natural resources is simplistic and biased, and therefore does not represent the complete meaning and significance that natural resources may hold for local communities and households. Therefore, this study takes an innovative psychological approach to explore in detail the everyday lived experiences of the amaXhosa in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. It seeks to investigate the cultural, spiritual, and psychological values that ordinary people attach to natural landscapes in the peri-urban and urban communities of Ndlambe Village l and Grahamstown respectively. This research also aims to study the general perceptions of and meanings ascribed to the natural landscape (referred to by the amaXhosa as ihlathi lesiXhosa). In addition, it carefully integrates the Phenomenological and Transactional approaches to investigate how the amaXhosa engage, interact, and find meaning within the natural landscape. Furthermore, the study explores the impact of such landscape experiences on local people's spiritual and psychological well-being, demonstrating it link to bio-cultural diversity and conservation. The major findings in this study reflect that ihlathi lesiXhosa provides a place for peace and tranquillity to enhance psychological restoration. Moreover, ihlathi contributes towards redefining and strengthening personal and cultural identity; and provides spiritual satisfaction in everyday life. Overall, the findings of this study indicate that i!liathi lesiXhosa plays a profound role in both the personal and social lives of many amaXhosa in the Eastern Cape in that it appears to improve their lives. Therefore, the evidence in this study suggests that, among the amaXhosa, biodiversity and natural landscape management processes should not aim to address and promote ecologicallbiological and economic values in a compartmentalized manner independent of other social, cultural, psychological, and more specifically the spiritual values of these features. An increased understanding of these more intangible values and local people's value system of biodiversity could help towards implementing improved biodiversity conservation and landscape management strategies in South Africa. These insights would not only help us to address the challenges of the previous conservation framework but would also encourage a more inclusive, mutual benefiting process that respects local people's values and needs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Transitions into informal employment: an analysis of South African panel data: 2008-2012
- Authors: Muttze, Takudzwa
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4498 , vital:20682
- Description: South Africa’s labour market is characterised by high unemployment but relatively low levels of informal employment, making it distinct from other developing countries. The existing literature appears to show evidence of high mobility rates of labour across labour market states. The coexistence of high labour mobility rates, yet high unemployment and weak informal employment in South Africa’s labour market is therefore puzzling. Considerable research has been done to explain this phenomenon and has suggested that barriers to informal entrepreneurship form the key reason why informal employment is relatively low in South Africa compared to other developing countries. Worker transitions have however not been a focal question in the literature. Using data from the National Tncome Dynamics Study (NTDS 2008-2012), this study sought to examine the characteristics of workers who move into informal employment, attaching importance to those who become self-employed. Transition matrices are constructed showing the proportion of workers who stayed or moved into different labour market states between 2008 and 2012, and linking the movements to 2008 personal characteristics. Churning between labour market states was found to be relatively high, albeit formal wage employment exhibiting immobility. Transitions out of informal employment were high, reflecting its survivalist nature. Conversely, those from unemployment into informal employment, particularly self-employment were low. Using the probit regression model, transitions to informal employment were found to be more associated with workers who are generally marginalised from formal employment opportunities. The results suggest that the South African labour market is to a larger extent not reflective of the Dualist narrative of ease of movement of workers from unemployment into informal employment and barriers into informal entrepreneurship are high. To date, policies which have sought to encourage informal entrepreneurship have not been a success. A central challenge to policymakers is to create an enabling environment for the unemployed to start their own informal businesses. This has the potential of reducing unemployment and poverty rates in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Muttze, Takudzwa
- Date: 2016
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4498 , vital:20682
- Description: South Africa’s labour market is characterised by high unemployment but relatively low levels of informal employment, making it distinct from other developing countries. The existing literature appears to show evidence of high mobility rates of labour across labour market states. The coexistence of high labour mobility rates, yet high unemployment and weak informal employment in South Africa’s labour market is therefore puzzling. Considerable research has been done to explain this phenomenon and has suggested that barriers to informal entrepreneurship form the key reason why informal employment is relatively low in South Africa compared to other developing countries. Worker transitions have however not been a focal question in the literature. Using data from the National Tncome Dynamics Study (NTDS 2008-2012), this study sought to examine the characteristics of workers who move into informal employment, attaching importance to those who become self-employed. Transition matrices are constructed showing the proportion of workers who stayed or moved into different labour market states between 2008 and 2012, and linking the movements to 2008 personal characteristics. Churning between labour market states was found to be relatively high, albeit formal wage employment exhibiting immobility. Transitions out of informal employment were high, reflecting its survivalist nature. Conversely, those from unemployment into informal employment, particularly self-employment were low. Using the probit regression model, transitions to informal employment were found to be more associated with workers who are generally marginalised from formal employment opportunities. The results suggest that the South African labour market is to a larger extent not reflective of the Dualist narrative of ease of movement of workers from unemployment into informal employment and barriers into informal entrepreneurship are high. To date, policies which have sought to encourage informal entrepreneurship have not been a success. A central challenge to policymakers is to create an enabling environment for the unemployed to start their own informal businesses. This has the potential of reducing unemployment and poverty rates in the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Toward universal sustainability: strategies and guidelines
- Authors: Robertson, Struan Ross
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Sustainability , Sustainable development , Economic development , Social planning
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71591 , vital:29922
- Description: This research considers the notion of universal sustainability, which involves the three well-known pillars of sustainable development, namely, economic development, social development, and environmental sustainability. Critical to achieving this unity of purpose in the aligning of economic and social aspirations with the limits of the natural environment is the enhancing of human capability and the development of political institutions capable of representing the interests of all people by leveraging resources responsibly. Universal sustainability differs from the concept of sustainable development in that the emphasis is cast not on merely achieving economic development despite the challenges presented by social and environmental concerns, but on seeking to understand what a better society might look like that integrates outcomes in-line with these three factors. Universal sustainability is about re-thinking the purpose of material progress to realign this with the need for social cohesion and to reposition human values and expectations safely within ecological boundaries. In other words, strategies and guidelines that promote the realisation of universal sustainability would recommend a society that values economic and technological progress with equal measure to social development and environmental sustainability, as well as all the other factors that promote human wellbeing. Consequently, this research also considers the inter-linkages that are found between economic development (i.e. technological advancement) and social (i.e. normative progress) and societal (i.e. long-term institutional differentiation) development with respect to labour markets, the formation of skills, the scope of welfare regimes and hence, the trajectory of the social reproduction of society. The prospects of environmental sustainability, like that of societal development, are found to be influenced by the values that a society holds and the ability of economic and social factors to adapt in response to the environmental challenges that face societies in socially workable ways. This research concerns the great quest for meaning and purpose that humans have undertaken throughout history, and asks how human wellbeing – in its best, most expansive sense, can be improved and how societies can advance and prosper going forward while keeping the avenue of individual self-actualisation open as a possibility in the everyday lives of citizens? In achieving this end, this research looks at what economic development strategies suggest as tenable against these aspirations. Furthermore, this research looks at the experience of advanced democratic societies to better conceive of how material progress, social cohesion via education and welfare, and environmental sustainability can be attained. The selection of these countries ensures understanding for the kind of political arrangements that safeguard human wellbeing and give voice to freedom, material opportunities, and civic responsibilities. Critical to both these assessments is defining the mechanics that underlie the processes that achieve material and moral progress in human societies. The main goal of this research is to recommend strategies and guidelines for developing countries like South Africa that wish to develop and thrive. Therefore, this research presents an assessment framework for understanding both universal sustainability and how to achieve it. This research concludes that mindfulness about the natural environment and the services it supplies, as well as mindfulness about what drives economic development and what supports the conditions for human flourishing, are necessary for universal sustainability strategies and guidelines to work. Indeed, the ideologies that societies subscribe to and the values they hold are important 84 to creating the right conditions for economic tools to work to advance economic development, material improvement, socio-environmental justice, and ultimately for achieving universal sustainability. But central to both economic and environmental futures is an understanding that at the heart of the matter is a concern for apprehending what drives human behaviour and aspiration, and what creates social cohesion.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Robertson, Struan Ross
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Sustainability , Sustainable development , Economic development , Social planning
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71591 , vital:29922
- Description: This research considers the notion of universal sustainability, which involves the three well-known pillars of sustainable development, namely, economic development, social development, and environmental sustainability. Critical to achieving this unity of purpose in the aligning of economic and social aspirations with the limits of the natural environment is the enhancing of human capability and the development of political institutions capable of representing the interests of all people by leveraging resources responsibly. Universal sustainability differs from the concept of sustainable development in that the emphasis is cast not on merely achieving economic development despite the challenges presented by social and environmental concerns, but on seeking to understand what a better society might look like that integrates outcomes in-line with these three factors. Universal sustainability is about re-thinking the purpose of material progress to realign this with the need for social cohesion and to reposition human values and expectations safely within ecological boundaries. In other words, strategies and guidelines that promote the realisation of universal sustainability would recommend a society that values economic and technological progress with equal measure to social development and environmental sustainability, as well as all the other factors that promote human wellbeing. Consequently, this research also considers the inter-linkages that are found between economic development (i.e. technological advancement) and social (i.e. normative progress) and societal (i.e. long-term institutional differentiation) development with respect to labour markets, the formation of skills, the scope of welfare regimes and hence, the trajectory of the social reproduction of society. The prospects of environmental sustainability, like that of societal development, are found to be influenced by the values that a society holds and the ability of economic and social factors to adapt in response to the environmental challenges that face societies in socially workable ways. This research concerns the great quest for meaning and purpose that humans have undertaken throughout history, and asks how human wellbeing – in its best, most expansive sense, can be improved and how societies can advance and prosper going forward while keeping the avenue of individual self-actualisation open as a possibility in the everyday lives of citizens? In achieving this end, this research looks at what economic development strategies suggest as tenable against these aspirations. Furthermore, this research looks at the experience of advanced democratic societies to better conceive of how material progress, social cohesion via education and welfare, and environmental sustainability can be attained. The selection of these countries ensures understanding for the kind of political arrangements that safeguard human wellbeing and give voice to freedom, material opportunities, and civic responsibilities. Critical to both these assessments is defining the mechanics that underlie the processes that achieve material and moral progress in human societies. The main goal of this research is to recommend strategies and guidelines for developing countries like South Africa that wish to develop and thrive. Therefore, this research presents an assessment framework for understanding both universal sustainability and how to achieve it. This research concludes that mindfulness about the natural environment and the services it supplies, as well as mindfulness about what drives economic development and what supports the conditions for human flourishing, are necessary for universal sustainability strategies and guidelines to work. Indeed, the ideologies that societies subscribe to and the values they hold are important 84 to creating the right conditions for economic tools to work to advance economic development, material improvement, socio-environmental justice, and ultimately for achieving universal sustainability. But central to both economic and environmental futures is an understanding that at the heart of the matter is a concern for apprehending what drives human behaviour and aspiration, and what creates social cohesion.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
The yield spread as a predictor for buy or sell signals for sectoral indices of the JSE
- Authors: Roeber, Christine
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Yield curve , Rate of return South Africa , Yield spread , Interest rate , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419687 , vital:71666
- Description: The predictive nature of the yield curve has been of interest to researchers for years. In this thesis, the evidence for the yield curve as a predictor is examine, specifically as a predictor for bear markets in the JSE stock market for 8 sub-sectoral indices. The study explores a dynamic market timing strategy for timing the South African stock market compared to a normal buy-and-hold strategy. First, probit models are estimated for each of the sectoral indices which did not prove to have tracked well all the bear market phases. Then a dynamic market timing portfolio is simulated against a buy-and-hold only strategy, the dynamic market timing portfolio proved to have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy for almost all the indices. Thus, a Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability was done on these sub-indices. The research finds that the yield curve in South Africa is not a useful tool for a buy-sell strategy for most of the sub-sectoral indices of the JSE. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
- Authors: Roeber, Christine
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Yield curve , Rate of return South Africa , Yield spread , Interest rate , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419687 , vital:71666
- Description: The predictive nature of the yield curve has been of interest to researchers for years. In this thesis, the evidence for the yield curve as a predictor is examine, specifically as a predictor for bear markets in the JSE stock market for 8 sub-sectoral indices. The study explores a dynamic market timing strategy for timing the South African stock market compared to a normal buy-and-hold strategy. First, probit models are estimated for each of the sectoral indices which did not prove to have tracked well all the bear market phases. Then a dynamic market timing portfolio is simulated against a buy-and-hold only strategy, the dynamic market timing portfolio proved to have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy for almost all the indices. Thus, a Henriksson-Merton parametric model test which tests for market timing ability was done on these sub-indices. The research finds that the yield curve in South Africa is not a useful tool for a buy-sell strategy for most of the sub-sectoral indices of the JSE. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
The yield curve as a forecasting tool : does the yield spread predict recessions in South Africa?
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Khomo, Melvin Muzi
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1040 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004722 , Recessions -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Economic indicators -- South Africa , Business cycles -- History -- 20th century , Business cycles -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
The value of non-native fish species : a study of recreational angling in the Amathole district
- Authors: Kinghorn, James Wolmarans
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Fishing -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Introduced fishes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Fisheries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Non-native fish species , Recreational angling , Amathole district
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:930 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001456
- Description: Experience has shown that effective fisheries governance requires a sound understanding of fisheries as systems incorporating both ecological and human dimensions. The Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries requires that the human components of these systems be considered when developing management and governance frameworks. While the potential for inland fisheries to contribute towards societal welfare and the development of rural livelihoods is becoming increasingly apparent, developing South African inland fisheries requires a careful consideration of both their positive and negative impacts, given that they revolve mainly around five of the world‟s top 100 invasive species. This thesis aimed to explore the value of inland recreational fisheries to rural livelihoods in the Amathole District of South Africa, to the regional economy, and to anglers themselves. Three methods were used to isolate this value. Economic impact analysis was used to estimate the combined total economic impact of the 2011 Divisional Tournament (n=31) and the 2012 Amatola Bass Classic (n=100) on the regional economy of the Amathole District, estimated to be R106 625. The travel cost method was applied to data from the 2012 Amatola Bass Classic in order to estimate the social welfare generated by this tournament. The Negative Binomial model, corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification, estimated this value at R 1 960 090. The sustainable livelihoods framework was used to conduct a broad-based analysis of the value of Amatola Wild Trout, the firm which constitutes the fishery surrounding the rural village of Cata. It was found that the fishery had been responsible for a modest pecuniary impact on the community of Cata within its first two years of establishment, although significant improvements in human capital were found to have resulted from the development of the fishery. These results provide insights into the economic dimension of fisheries in the Amathole District, and will prove useful when weighing up the positive and negative impacts of non-native fish species, particularly when informing decisions regarding their potential eradication.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Kinghorn, James Wolmarans
- Date: 2013
- Subjects: Fishing -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Introduced fishes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Fisheries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Non-native fish species , Recreational angling , Amathole district
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:930 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001456
- Description: Experience has shown that effective fisheries governance requires a sound understanding of fisheries as systems incorporating both ecological and human dimensions. The Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries requires that the human components of these systems be considered when developing management and governance frameworks. While the potential for inland fisheries to contribute towards societal welfare and the development of rural livelihoods is becoming increasingly apparent, developing South African inland fisheries requires a careful consideration of both their positive and negative impacts, given that they revolve mainly around five of the world‟s top 100 invasive species. This thesis aimed to explore the value of inland recreational fisheries to rural livelihoods in the Amathole District of South Africa, to the regional economy, and to anglers themselves. Three methods were used to isolate this value. Economic impact analysis was used to estimate the combined total economic impact of the 2011 Divisional Tournament (n=31) and the 2012 Amatola Bass Classic (n=100) on the regional economy of the Amathole District, estimated to be R106 625. The travel cost method was applied to data from the 2012 Amatola Bass Classic in order to estimate the social welfare generated by this tournament. The Negative Binomial model, corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification, estimated this value at R 1 960 090. The sustainable livelihoods framework was used to conduct a broad-based analysis of the value of Amatola Wild Trout, the firm which constitutes the fishery surrounding the rural village of Cata. It was found that the fishery had been responsible for a modest pecuniary impact on the community of Cata within its first two years of establishment, although significant improvements in human capital were found to have resulted from the development of the fishery. These results provide insights into the economic dimension of fisheries in the Amathole District, and will prove useful when weighing up the positive and negative impacts of non-native fish species, particularly when informing decisions regarding their potential eradication.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
The value of economic capital as an indicator to protect prospective and existing ordinary shareholders
- Authors: Chonzi, Tendai Day
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- Risk management -- South Africa , Financial services industry -- Risk management -- South Africa , ABSA Bank , FirstRand Limited , Nedbank , Standard Bank Limited , Capitec Bank (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145807 , vital:38468
- Description: South Africans banking sector is one of the most dominating banking sectors in Africa. The banking sector is privately owned and involves a lot of different stakeholders, who risk losing their investments. One of the stakeholders who are the bottom of the repayment chain are existing ordinary shareholders because they risk losing all their investment in the result of bankruptcy, liquidity crises or the inability of the bank to repay their shareholders. Regulators in the banking sector only protect the depositor and the stability of the banking sector but not ordinary shareholders. An internal supervisory measure called economic capital has recently received more attention because of its aim to protect ordinary shareholders and thus, existing and prospective shareholders can use its value as a protective indicator. Economic theory assumes that the higher the value of economic capital (the lower the economic capital shortfall), the lower the return on investment for existing ordinary shareholders. The aforementioned shows a trade-off between protection (economic capital) and returns. Literature by Larsson (2009) further suggests that banks are always reluctant with implementing internal measures to protect themselves because of the good regulatory regime in the sector, some banks think that they are “too big to fail” and the fact that the reserve banks are always on the standby as a bailout. The purpose of this research is to examine which of the top five commercial banks in South African actively protect their existing ordinary shareholders using the value of economic capital and possibly attract prospective ordinary shareholders, locally and internationally. The banks under study are Absa, Capitec, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank over ten years, starting from June 2009 to May 2019 and in monthly frequency. The observations totalled 120 and two models that are under the Return Series Method were in used, namely; Historical Simulation Model and Variance Covariance Model. Both models, although they were small deviations in the value of economic capital, concluded that Standard Bank protects its existing ordinary shareholders the most, followed by FirstRand, then Absa and last is Nedbank. Capitec was the only bank, after one financial shock that could not protect its existing ordinary shareholders. Moreover, evidence in the study shows a trade-off between economic capital and return on investment in the case of Capitec and Standard Bank. Standard Bank had the highest value of economic capital and second-lowest return on investment, while Capitec had the highest return on investment and lowest value of economic capital. The significant policy implication of the research is that financial institution needs to strike a balance between protection and profits; thus, a way of protecting various stakeholders. Financial shocks have proven that regulatory measures are weak and they are is need for internal measures (economic capital) which indicate how financial institution can sustain in such cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Chonzi, Tendai Day
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Banks and banking -- Risk management -- South Africa , Financial services industry -- Risk management -- South Africa , ABSA Bank , FirstRand Limited , Nedbank , Standard Bank Limited , Capitec Bank (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145807 , vital:38468
- Description: South Africans banking sector is one of the most dominating banking sectors in Africa. The banking sector is privately owned and involves a lot of different stakeholders, who risk losing their investments. One of the stakeholders who are the bottom of the repayment chain are existing ordinary shareholders because they risk losing all their investment in the result of bankruptcy, liquidity crises or the inability of the bank to repay their shareholders. Regulators in the banking sector only protect the depositor and the stability of the banking sector but not ordinary shareholders. An internal supervisory measure called economic capital has recently received more attention because of its aim to protect ordinary shareholders and thus, existing and prospective shareholders can use its value as a protective indicator. Economic theory assumes that the higher the value of economic capital (the lower the economic capital shortfall), the lower the return on investment for existing ordinary shareholders. The aforementioned shows a trade-off between protection (economic capital) and returns. Literature by Larsson (2009) further suggests that banks are always reluctant with implementing internal measures to protect themselves because of the good regulatory regime in the sector, some banks think that they are “too big to fail” and the fact that the reserve banks are always on the standby as a bailout. The purpose of this research is to examine which of the top five commercial banks in South African actively protect their existing ordinary shareholders using the value of economic capital and possibly attract prospective ordinary shareholders, locally and internationally. The banks under study are Absa, Capitec, FirstRand, Nedbank and Standard Bank over ten years, starting from June 2009 to May 2019 and in monthly frequency. The observations totalled 120 and two models that are under the Return Series Method were in used, namely; Historical Simulation Model and Variance Covariance Model. Both models, although they were small deviations in the value of economic capital, concluded that Standard Bank protects its existing ordinary shareholders the most, followed by FirstRand, then Absa and last is Nedbank. Capitec was the only bank, after one financial shock that could not protect its existing ordinary shareholders. Moreover, evidence in the study shows a trade-off between economic capital and return on investment in the case of Capitec and Standard Bank. Standard Bank had the highest value of economic capital and second-lowest return on investment, while Capitec had the highest return on investment and lowest value of economic capital. The significant policy implication of the research is that financial institution needs to strike a balance between protection and profits; thus, a way of protecting various stakeholders. Financial shocks have proven that regulatory measures are weak and they are is need for internal measures (economic capital) which indicate how financial institution can sustain in such cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The trade and poverty nexus in South Africa: investigating the transmission mechanism and the associated challenges
- Authors: Bhebhe, Nonceba Fikile
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Commerce , Free trade , International trade , Poverty South Africa , Poverty Prevention , South Africa Economic conditions 1991-
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357515 , vital:64750
- Description: International trade plays an essential role in economic development strategies. In literature, foreign trade is identified as a driver of economic growth. In recent times there has been an expansion in the scope of investigations around the role of international trade to include its links with poverty alleviation. Poverty alleviation is explicitly identified as the first goal on the 2030 agenda for sustainable development under the Sustainable Development Goals and implicitly defined in goal 10. International trade is seen as the engine behind achieving the goal. South Africa records excessive poverty and inequality levels by international standards for a middle-income country. The most recent Poverty Trends Report for 2006 - 2015 reports 55.5% of the population living in poverty. Inequality statistics reported a per capita expenditure Gini coefficient of 0.65 in 2015, evidence that the country has high levels of inequality. The country's severe poverty, unemployment, and inequality prompt policymakers to formulate developmental policies around the underlying structural challenges. Trade openness has increased since the end of the Apartheid era. Despite the increased trade openness, economic growth has been insufficient in reducing the high unemployment and poverty levels, presenting a challenge for economists, who argue that trade openness is pro-growth and pro-poor. In the South African case, the lack of change in the structural challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality has raised concerns over whether the trade policy reforms made since 1994 interfere with development objectives. This study aims to investigate the impact of trade liberalisation on poverty, using the three channels, namely enterprise, distribution, and government that have been researched within the McCulloch, Winters and Cirera framework. Specifically, it investigates the linkages via the transmission mechanism in which trade affects poverty in South Africa by mapping the transmission mechanisms from trade liberalisation to poverty alleviation, whilst identifying the possible challenges to the transmission mechanisms and lastly, analysing the stylised facts around trade and poverty in South Africa. To answer the question of this study, quantitative data from National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS) was merged longitudinally and aggregated with the industry tariff data sourced from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) statistics. A path analysis was undertaken to map the transmission mechanism, whilst descriptive statistics were used to identify the possible associated challenges. The results show that the most significant channel of transmission are the enterprise and distribution channel. However, the effects are of a small margin and a more comprehensive trade policy yield a higher margin of poverty alleviation. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
- Authors: Bhebhe, Nonceba Fikile
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Commerce , Free trade , International trade , Poverty South Africa , Poverty Prevention , South Africa Economic conditions 1991-
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357515 , vital:64750
- Description: International trade plays an essential role in economic development strategies. In literature, foreign trade is identified as a driver of economic growth. In recent times there has been an expansion in the scope of investigations around the role of international trade to include its links with poverty alleviation. Poverty alleviation is explicitly identified as the first goal on the 2030 agenda for sustainable development under the Sustainable Development Goals and implicitly defined in goal 10. International trade is seen as the engine behind achieving the goal. South Africa records excessive poverty and inequality levels by international standards for a middle-income country. The most recent Poverty Trends Report for 2006 - 2015 reports 55.5% of the population living in poverty. Inequality statistics reported a per capita expenditure Gini coefficient of 0.65 in 2015, evidence that the country has high levels of inequality. The country's severe poverty, unemployment, and inequality prompt policymakers to formulate developmental policies around the underlying structural challenges. Trade openness has increased since the end of the Apartheid era. Despite the increased trade openness, economic growth has been insufficient in reducing the high unemployment and poverty levels, presenting a challenge for economists, who argue that trade openness is pro-growth and pro-poor. In the South African case, the lack of change in the structural challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality has raised concerns over whether the trade policy reforms made since 1994 interfere with development objectives. This study aims to investigate the impact of trade liberalisation on poverty, using the three channels, namely enterprise, distribution, and government that have been researched within the McCulloch, Winters and Cirera framework. Specifically, it investigates the linkages via the transmission mechanism in which trade affects poverty in South Africa by mapping the transmission mechanisms from trade liberalisation to poverty alleviation, whilst identifying the possible challenges to the transmission mechanisms and lastly, analysing the stylised facts around trade and poverty in South Africa. To answer the question of this study, quantitative data from National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS) was merged longitudinally and aggregated with the industry tariff data sourced from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) statistics. A path analysis was undertaken to map the transmission mechanism, whilst descriptive statistics were used to identify the possible associated challenges. The results show that the most significant channel of transmission are the enterprise and distribution channel. However, the effects are of a small margin and a more comprehensive trade policy yield a higher margin of poverty alleviation. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
The stock market and the business cycle in South Africa
- Authors: Pokoo, Patience
- Date: 2024-10-11
- Subjects: Stock exchanges South Africa , Economic activity , Business cycles South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Policymaker , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/462801 , vital:76336
- Description: The relationship between the stock market and economic activity has long been a topic for research. Several studies done in both advanced and emerging economies including South Africa before COVID-19 found stock market prices predict the cycle of real economic activity and some found it to be the reversal. Therefore, this Study seeks to examine this topic and will extend beyond the post-covid period exploring the relationship between the stock market (proxied by the JSE All-Share Index) and the business cycle (represented by the Coincident Business Cycle Indicator of the SARB) in South Africa. The study also investigates if the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle is homogenous across the three selected sectors of the JSE using a combination of the “financial accelerator theory”, the “wealth effect theory”, the “traditional valuation model of stock prices”, the “stock prices as aggregators of expectations”, and the “cost of raising equity capital”. The Econometrics models employed include time-series and panel cointegration techniques, relying on the ARDL estimation model and a Granger-Causality Test. The findings of this study indicate that a long-run relationship exists between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa. The findings support the notion that the stock market predicts economic activity, and this relationship is assumed to be homogenous across the selected Sectors of the JSE (namely, Resources, Financials, and Industrials). Again, the Granger-Causality Test confirms the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa to be unidirectional. It is recommended that since the stock market affects South African economic activity positively in the long run which is consistent with findings of similar studies done on the JSE, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) must strengthen existing policy to ensure financial system stability and sustainable economic growth in South Africa. Again, the stock market being a leading indicator of the business cycle is something different. As a recommendation, we need to look at ways to use the prediction ability in a business setting. Investors and Portfolio Managers can follow trends of the stock market to forecast the direction of the future economy to make educated decisions to hedge their investments and diversify their portfolios against huge losses in crises such as the Financial Crises and the Global Health Crisis (COVID-19), however, with the caveat that the stock market does not always accurately predict the business cycle. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-10-11
- Authors: Pokoo, Patience
- Date: 2024-10-11
- Subjects: Stock exchanges South Africa , Economic activity , Business cycles South Africa , Autoregression (Statistics) , Policymaker , Johannesburg Stock Exchange
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/462801 , vital:76336
- Description: The relationship between the stock market and economic activity has long been a topic for research. Several studies done in both advanced and emerging economies including South Africa before COVID-19 found stock market prices predict the cycle of real economic activity and some found it to be the reversal. Therefore, this Study seeks to examine this topic and will extend beyond the post-covid period exploring the relationship between the stock market (proxied by the JSE All-Share Index) and the business cycle (represented by the Coincident Business Cycle Indicator of the SARB) in South Africa. The study also investigates if the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle is homogenous across the three selected sectors of the JSE using a combination of the “financial accelerator theory”, the “wealth effect theory”, the “traditional valuation model of stock prices”, the “stock prices as aggregators of expectations”, and the “cost of raising equity capital”. The Econometrics models employed include time-series and panel cointegration techniques, relying on the ARDL estimation model and a Granger-Causality Test. The findings of this study indicate that a long-run relationship exists between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa. The findings support the notion that the stock market predicts economic activity, and this relationship is assumed to be homogenous across the selected Sectors of the JSE (namely, Resources, Financials, and Industrials). Again, the Granger-Causality Test confirms the relationship between the stock market and the business cycle in South Africa to be unidirectional. It is recommended that since the stock market affects South African economic activity positively in the long run which is consistent with findings of similar studies done on the JSE, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) must strengthen existing policy to ensure financial system stability and sustainable economic growth in South Africa. Again, the stock market being a leading indicator of the business cycle is something different. As a recommendation, we need to look at ways to use the prediction ability in a business setting. Investors and Portfolio Managers can follow trends of the stock market to forecast the direction of the future economy to make educated decisions to hedge their investments and diversify their portfolios against huge losses in crises such as the Financial Crises and the Global Health Crisis (COVID-19), however, with the caveat that the stock market does not always accurately predict the business cycle. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-10-11
The South African shipping question, 1886-1914
- Authors: Solomon, Vivian
- Date: 1979
- Subjects: Shipping South Africa History , Shipping conferences History , Union-Castle Mail Steamship Company
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1039 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004667
- Description: From Preface: For the best part of a generation the "Shipping Question" was a talking-point in South Africa; yet today it is completely forgotten, and the name of its leading actor is virtually unknown. Scant reference to the controversy will be found in economic- or other histories; in the rare cases where it is alluded to, the treatment is superficial. This study seeks to fill that gap. At the outset it is advisable to define the scope of the work. It is not a history of the South African shipping trade in the pre-1914 era: shiplovers have had that ground amply covered by Marischal Murray, and indeed are unlikely to find in the following pages much to their taste. Neither is it an economic analysis of shipping conferences: there is a growing body of work on that subject, and this study does not seek to add to it. Nor is it a business history: it does not probe the structure, the management or the profitability of shipping enterprise in the period concerned. A full-scale discussion of these latter topics would be a major undertaking in its own right, nor is it at all certain that the necessary materials are accessible or even extant. In short, the study is concerned with the origins, the course and the outcome of the "Shipping Question" of the period 1886-1914. Documentation for a controversy that was essentially mercantile in its origins and its first dimensions might be thought to be patchy and sparse; but it is gratifying to record that a substantial volume of material has been uncovered. The newspapers and periodicals of the time, especially in the period before the Boer War, devoted much more attention to shipping than has since been usual; The British and South African Export Gazette, South Africa, The African Review, and the London edition of The Cape Argus have been of particular value. In that era, again, the Chambers of Commerce occupied a more prominent position in their communities than they seem to do now, and their meetings were reported at length, often to the extent of several columns of newsprint; these reports have been of great assistance. It is fortunate, moreover, that the papers of two of the leading protagonists on the South African side have survived: the Garlick Papers and the Jagger Papers, now housed in the University of Cape Town Libraries; these, while perhaps not as full as might have been hoped, have shed a good deal of light on mercantile thinking and strategy. If the controversy had been confined to the mercantile sector, however, it would scarcely justify detailed investigation. It entered also into the sphere of government and politics and it came to assume an Imperial dimension; and in these aspects it is pleasingly well documented in official primary sources. The papers of prominent public figures, furthermore, have yielded some valuable insights and, in some cases, the documents that rightfully belong in official repositories! The minutes of one of the corporate bodies to the dispute - the South African Merchants' Committee in London - are still extant, and they have been of great use in supplementing the (sometimes condensed) versions of the Committee's proceedings that are available from newspaper- and other sources. While disappointingly attenuated in some areas, the records of the Union-Castle Line have been alike fascinating and indispensable. The papers of Percy Molteno, a member of the Line's management and one of the leading actors in the second part of this study, form a valuable supplement to the records. One cause for regret has been the absence of primary sources emanating from the other shipping lines involved in the controversy. The Union- Castle Line was the dominant partner in the trade, and will therefore occupy the centre of the stage; but its colleagues' records would have been useful in perhaps correcting undue emphases or false perspectives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1979
- Authors: Solomon, Vivian
- Date: 1979
- Subjects: Shipping South Africa History , Shipping conferences History , Union-Castle Mail Steamship Company
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1039 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004667
- Description: From Preface: For the best part of a generation the "Shipping Question" was a talking-point in South Africa; yet today it is completely forgotten, and the name of its leading actor is virtually unknown. Scant reference to the controversy will be found in economic- or other histories; in the rare cases where it is alluded to, the treatment is superficial. This study seeks to fill that gap. At the outset it is advisable to define the scope of the work. It is not a history of the South African shipping trade in the pre-1914 era: shiplovers have had that ground amply covered by Marischal Murray, and indeed are unlikely to find in the following pages much to their taste. Neither is it an economic analysis of shipping conferences: there is a growing body of work on that subject, and this study does not seek to add to it. Nor is it a business history: it does not probe the structure, the management or the profitability of shipping enterprise in the period concerned. A full-scale discussion of these latter topics would be a major undertaking in its own right, nor is it at all certain that the necessary materials are accessible or even extant. In short, the study is concerned with the origins, the course and the outcome of the "Shipping Question" of the period 1886-1914. Documentation for a controversy that was essentially mercantile in its origins and its first dimensions might be thought to be patchy and sparse; but it is gratifying to record that a substantial volume of material has been uncovered. The newspapers and periodicals of the time, especially in the period before the Boer War, devoted much more attention to shipping than has since been usual; The British and South African Export Gazette, South Africa, The African Review, and the London edition of The Cape Argus have been of particular value. In that era, again, the Chambers of Commerce occupied a more prominent position in their communities than they seem to do now, and their meetings were reported at length, often to the extent of several columns of newsprint; these reports have been of great assistance. It is fortunate, moreover, that the papers of two of the leading protagonists on the South African side have survived: the Garlick Papers and the Jagger Papers, now housed in the University of Cape Town Libraries; these, while perhaps not as full as might have been hoped, have shed a good deal of light on mercantile thinking and strategy. If the controversy had been confined to the mercantile sector, however, it would scarcely justify detailed investigation. It entered also into the sphere of government and politics and it came to assume an Imperial dimension; and in these aspects it is pleasingly well documented in official primary sources. The papers of prominent public figures, furthermore, have yielded some valuable insights and, in some cases, the documents that rightfully belong in official repositories! The minutes of one of the corporate bodies to the dispute - the South African Merchants' Committee in London - are still extant, and they have been of great use in supplementing the (sometimes condensed) versions of the Committee's proceedings that are available from newspaper- and other sources. While disappointingly attenuated in some areas, the records of the Union-Castle Line have been alike fascinating and indispensable. The papers of Percy Molteno, a member of the Line's management and one of the leading actors in the second part of this study, form a valuable supplement to the records. One cause for regret has been the absence of primary sources emanating from the other shipping lines involved in the controversy. The Union- Castle Line was the dominant partner in the trade, and will therefore occupy the centre of the stage; but its colleagues' records would have been useful in perhaps correcting undue emphases or false perspectives.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1979
The short-term effect on shareholder wealth of banking mergers and acquisitions during periods of real economic expansion and contraction
- Authors: Kerr, Gordon Roy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bank mergers , Consolidation and merger of corporations , Business cycles , Corporations -- Investor relations , Stockholder wealth , Rate of return
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1108 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013442
- Description: Controversy currently exists over whether abnormal returns (ARs) are earned by shareholders of bidder and target banks through a Merger and Acquisition (M&A). The state of the economy in which the firms operate is often mentioned as a reason for firms engaging in M&As, however, the extent to which economies influence the ARs of shareholders is unknown. Following MacKinlay (1997), the aim of this study is to determine the average ARs earned or lost by shareholders of several banks around the world during an M&A. The results obtained may indicate that shareholders of bidding firms consider an M&A to be a wealth-destroying event irrespective of the state of the economy. It would seem that target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-creating events when they occur during a period of real economic expansion. However, during periods of real economic contraction, target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-destroying events. Thus, the state of an economy during an M&A can affect average ARs considerably.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Kerr, Gordon Roy
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bank mergers , Consolidation and merger of corporations , Business cycles , Corporations -- Investor relations , Stockholder wealth , Rate of return
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1108 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1013442
- Description: Controversy currently exists over whether abnormal returns (ARs) are earned by shareholders of bidder and target banks through a Merger and Acquisition (M&A). The state of the economy in which the firms operate is often mentioned as a reason for firms engaging in M&As, however, the extent to which economies influence the ARs of shareholders is unknown. Following MacKinlay (1997), the aim of this study is to determine the average ARs earned or lost by shareholders of several banks around the world during an M&A. The results obtained may indicate that shareholders of bidding firms consider an M&A to be a wealth-destroying event irrespective of the state of the economy. It would seem that target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-creating events when they occur during a period of real economic expansion. However, during periods of real economic contraction, target firms’ shareholders consider M&As to be wealth-destroying events. Thus, the state of an economy during an M&A can affect average ARs considerably.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The role of local level agency in a just green transition: the case of Rhodes University
- Authors: Nel, Vanray
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Green economy , Just Transition , Clean energy South Africa Makhanda , Rhodes University , Triple bottom line , Sustainable development South Africa Makhanda
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419643 , vital:71662
- Description: The research uses a richly contextualised case study of Rhodes University to explore the role of local level agency in a just green transition. The central concept of the thesis is mainstreaming sustainability. Sustainability has become a core objective both at the macro and micro levels. The just green transition and triple bottom line are shorthand for these macro and micro concepts. At the macro level, there is increasing evidence suggesting that transitioning to a sustainable economy can be a key driver of economic development. At the micro level, the elements of the triple bottom line increasingly overlap, with sustainability no longer a separate goal, or a ‘nice to have’, but integral to organisational success. However, this potential is clearly not being realised, and sustainability often remains ‘niche’. Lack of progress at the macro-level reinforces the importance of bottom-up, local level agency. In keeping with the broader micro-level literature, the case study strongly suggests that mainstreaming sustainability would have multiple benefits. These include reducing dependence on unreliable state-provided services and enhancing Rhodes University’s standing as a genuinely transformative institution. The evidence suggests that there is a pure financial case for green investments, such as the construction of a solar farm at Rhodes University, even before accounting for the social and environmental benefits of such an initiative. This shifts the focus to why institutions like Rhodes University have not been proactive in mainstreaming sustainability. The document analysis and the interviews showed that there is an awareness of the importance and potential of mainstreaming sustainability. However, the funding squeeze is often misperceived as a binding constraint, and there is an absence of innovative thinking about how to finance projects with high returns, such as a solar farm. A theme amongst several of the interviewees was that the university should embrace a policy of enhancing small changes as a way of mainstreaming sustainability gradually. Even here, there are doubts about whether the organisational structure of the university will allow this. On the other hand, there are positive signs that the increasing sense of crisis means management and other key stakeholders are gradually shifting towards seeing the crucial importance of the university embracing a more proactive stance. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
- Authors: Nel, Vanray
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Green economy , Just Transition , Clean energy South Africa Makhanda , Rhodes University , Triple bottom line , Sustainable development South Africa Makhanda
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419643 , vital:71662
- Description: The research uses a richly contextualised case study of Rhodes University to explore the role of local level agency in a just green transition. The central concept of the thesis is mainstreaming sustainability. Sustainability has become a core objective both at the macro and micro levels. The just green transition and triple bottom line are shorthand for these macro and micro concepts. At the macro level, there is increasing evidence suggesting that transitioning to a sustainable economy can be a key driver of economic development. At the micro level, the elements of the triple bottom line increasingly overlap, with sustainability no longer a separate goal, or a ‘nice to have’, but integral to organisational success. However, this potential is clearly not being realised, and sustainability often remains ‘niche’. Lack of progress at the macro-level reinforces the importance of bottom-up, local level agency. In keeping with the broader micro-level literature, the case study strongly suggests that mainstreaming sustainability would have multiple benefits. These include reducing dependence on unreliable state-provided services and enhancing Rhodes University’s standing as a genuinely transformative institution. The evidence suggests that there is a pure financial case for green investments, such as the construction of a solar farm at Rhodes University, even before accounting for the social and environmental benefits of such an initiative. This shifts the focus to why institutions like Rhodes University have not been proactive in mainstreaming sustainability. The document analysis and the interviews showed that there is an awareness of the importance and potential of mainstreaming sustainability. However, the funding squeeze is often misperceived as a binding constraint, and there is an absence of innovative thinking about how to finance projects with high returns, such as a solar farm. A theme amongst several of the interviewees was that the university should embrace a policy of enhancing small changes as a way of mainstreaming sustainability gradually. Even here, there are doubts about whether the organisational structure of the university will allow this. On the other hand, there are positive signs that the increasing sense of crisis means management and other key stakeholders are gradually shifting towards seeing the crucial importance of the university embracing a more proactive stance. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
The role of culture in enabling or constraining the use of technology in higher education teaching and learning: the Commerce Curriculum Project
- Mostert, Markus, Snowball, Jeanette D, Boughey, Chrissie
- Authors: Mostert, Markus , Snowball, Jeanette D , Boughey, Chrissie
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: conference paper , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61073 , vital:27945
- Description: This paper draws on a project located in one faculty at a South African university which aimed to use Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to enhance teaching and learning. More specifically, the paper uses Archer’s (1995, 1996, 2000, 1998) ‘analytical dualism’ and ‘morphogenesis’ to explore the way individuals involved in the project were able to exercise agency in departments which were relatively hostile to the goals they were aiming to pursue despite the wider cultural domain encompassing many ideas which construct the use of ICTs as significant in promoting student learning. The paper thus contributes to the culture/agency subtheme of the HECU6 conference. The paper begins by providing some background to the project before moving on to an exploration of the way Archer’s theoretical work was used to analyse data collected by project leaders.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Mostert, Markus , Snowball, Jeanette D , Boughey, Chrissie
- Date: 2012
- Language: English
- Type: conference paper , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/61073 , vital:27945
- Description: This paper draws on a project located in one faculty at a South African university which aimed to use Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) to enhance teaching and learning. More specifically, the paper uses Archer’s (1995, 1996, 2000, 1998) ‘analytical dualism’ and ‘morphogenesis’ to explore the way individuals involved in the project were able to exercise agency in departments which were relatively hostile to the goals they were aiming to pursue despite the wider cultural domain encompassing many ideas which construct the use of ICTs as significant in promoting student learning. The paper thus contributes to the culture/agency subtheme of the HECU6 conference. The paper begins by providing some background to the project before moving on to an exploration of the way Archer’s theoretical work was used to analyse data collected by project leaders.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
The role of agricultural support programmes on the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho: asset utilisation, productivity and perceptions
- Authors: Mohlahatsa, Taole
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- Lesotho , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Government policy -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Lesotho , Agricultural assistance -- Lesotho , Rural development -- Lesotho
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71580 , vital:29914
- Description: The agricultural sector is widely considered an important contributor to economic development in least developed countries. It plays an important role in Lesotho and has been the backbone of rural activities and the prime employer of Basotho citizens. Smallholder farming is recognised by the government of Lesotho as a vehicle for addressing food security and poverty reduction. Maize is the principal staple crop produced by about 90 percent of farmers in Lesotho and it constitutes about 80 percent of the Basotho diet. Maize production is highly affected by climate change and is characterised by fluctuating yields because of erratic rainfall. In addition to unfavorable climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho experience challenges such as lack of farming inputs, limited access to markets and limited financial capital. These constraints confine them to a life of subsistence farming with low production and increased incidences of poverty. The government of Lesotho has intervened in the smallholder agricultural sector to stimulate production and productivity by introducing some agricultural programmes such as (i) the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy, (ii) the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme, (iii) the National Block Farming, and (iv) the Integrated Watershed Management Programme. However, despite such government interventions, production in the smallholder agricultural sector continues to face recurring constraints. Studies on the National Block Farming Programme have showed that the programme has had limited impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, farmers believe the Integrated Watershed Management Programme has a biased selection criteria as selection of areas is influenced by politicians who favour areas where they have a large political following and marginilise other areas. These concerns have also led to low participation rates in such programmes as wealthier, large scale farmers capture most of the benefits of government programmes. Disproportionate benefits of agricultural programmes to smallholder farmers imply that they continue to face the same constraints in production and have to find alternative ways of maintaining production and selling excess produce to sustain their livelihoods. The main goal of this research is therefore to study the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho and how agricultural support programmes influence their production of maize. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach with a qualitative dominant sequential design. Accordingly, both quantitative and qualitative data was used to address the research goal. Quantitative data collected from the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank was used for trend analysis on maize productivity, temperature and rainfall over the period 1980-2016. Qualitative primary data was collected by conducting focus group discussions with smallholder maize farmers and key stakeholder interviews using the sustainable livelihood framework as a conceptual guide. The study comprised of a total of 85 research participants consisting of 75 smallholder maize farmers and 10 key stakeholders. Farmers were selected from 10 key maize producing areas in Leribe and Mafeteng districts in Leribe. Results revealed fluctuating maize productivity and productivity growth rates where such fluctuations are caused by government intervention and natural calamities in the form of erratic rains and dry spells. Droughts and late arrival of subsidised inputs are the chief constraints to maize production. In relation to livelihood assets, human and social assets are the more available assets relative to other assets (financial, natural and physical) of the sustainable livelihood framework. Furthermore, the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy Programme and the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme are the most beneficial programmes to farmers livelihoods as they increase the accessibility of limited livelihood assets and therefore allowing farmers to achieve their livelihood goals. In contrast, the National Block Farming and the Integrated Watershed Management Programme are the least beneficial programmes to farmers’ livelihoods and are biased in their geographical targeting criteria. The study recommends that the government revises all selected support programmes in this study in areas warranting improvements so as to fairly and efficiently allocate resources that meet the needs of farmers. The study also recommends that farmers put more effort in adopting new technologies and strategies to improve production of maize in areas where government intervention has failed.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Mohlahatsa, Taole
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Agriculture and state -- Lesotho , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Government policy -- Lesotho , Farms, Small -- Lesotho , Agricultural assistance -- Lesotho , Rural development -- Lesotho
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71580 , vital:29914
- Description: The agricultural sector is widely considered an important contributor to economic development in least developed countries. It plays an important role in Lesotho and has been the backbone of rural activities and the prime employer of Basotho citizens. Smallholder farming is recognised by the government of Lesotho as a vehicle for addressing food security and poverty reduction. Maize is the principal staple crop produced by about 90 percent of farmers in Lesotho and it constitutes about 80 percent of the Basotho diet. Maize production is highly affected by climate change and is characterised by fluctuating yields because of erratic rainfall. In addition to unfavorable climate change, smallholder farmers in Lesotho experience challenges such as lack of farming inputs, limited access to markets and limited financial capital. These constraints confine them to a life of subsistence farming with low production and increased incidences of poverty. The government of Lesotho has intervened in the smallholder agricultural sector to stimulate production and productivity by introducing some agricultural programmes such as (i) the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy, (ii) the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme, (iii) the National Block Farming, and (iv) the Integrated Watershed Management Programme. However, despite such government interventions, production in the smallholder agricultural sector continues to face recurring constraints. Studies on the National Block Farming Programme have showed that the programme has had limited impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, farmers believe the Integrated Watershed Management Programme has a biased selection criteria as selection of areas is influenced by politicians who favour areas where they have a large political following and marginilise other areas. These concerns have also led to low participation rates in such programmes as wealthier, large scale farmers capture most of the benefits of government programmes. Disproportionate benefits of agricultural programmes to smallholder farmers imply that they continue to face the same constraints in production and have to find alternative ways of maintaining production and selling excess produce to sustain their livelihoods. The main goal of this research is therefore to study the livelihoods of smallholder maize farmers in Lesotho and how agricultural support programmes influence their production of maize. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach with a qualitative dominant sequential design. Accordingly, both quantitative and qualitative data was used to address the research goal. Quantitative data collected from the Lesotho Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank was used for trend analysis on maize productivity, temperature and rainfall over the period 1980-2016. Qualitative primary data was collected by conducting focus group discussions with smallholder maize farmers and key stakeholder interviews using the sustainable livelihood framework as a conceptual guide. The study comprised of a total of 85 research participants consisting of 75 smallholder maize farmers and 10 key stakeholders. Farmers were selected from 10 key maize producing areas in Leribe and Mafeteng districts in Leribe. Results revealed fluctuating maize productivity and productivity growth rates where such fluctuations are caused by government intervention and natural calamities in the form of erratic rains and dry spells. Droughts and late arrival of subsidised inputs are the chief constraints to maize production. In relation to livelihood assets, human and social assets are the more available assets relative to other assets (financial, natural and physical) of the sustainable livelihood framework. Furthermore, the National Fertiliser and Input subsidy Programme and the Smallholder Agricultural Development Programme are the most beneficial programmes to farmers livelihoods as they increase the accessibility of limited livelihood assets and therefore allowing farmers to achieve their livelihood goals. In contrast, the National Block Farming and the Integrated Watershed Management Programme are the least beneficial programmes to farmers’ livelihoods and are biased in their geographical targeting criteria. The study recommends that the government revises all selected support programmes in this study in areas warranting improvements so as to fairly and efficiently allocate resources that meet the needs of farmers. The study also recommends that farmers put more effort in adopting new technologies and strategies to improve production of maize in areas where government intervention has failed.
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- Date Issued: 2019