The use of hydrological information to improve flood management-integrated hydrological modelling of the Zambezi River basin
- Vilanculos, Agostinho Chuquelane Fadulo
- Authors: Vilanculos, Agostinho Chuquelane Fadulo
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Hydrologic models -- Zambezi River Watershed , Watershed management -- Zambezi River Watershed , Water resources development -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood control -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood forecasting -- Zambezi River Watershed , Rain gauges -- Zambezi River Watershed
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6054 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018915
- Description: The recent high profile flooding events – that have occurred in many parts of the world – have drawn attention to the need for new and improved methods for water resources assessment, water management and the modelling of large-scale flooding events. In the case of the Zambezi Basin, a review of the 2000 and 2001 floods identified the need for tools to enable hydrologists to assess and predict daily stream flow and identify the areas that are likely to be affected by flooding. As a way to address the problem, a methodology was set up to derive catchment soil moisture statistics from Earth Observation (EO) data and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models for improving reservoir management in a data scarce environment. Rainfall data were obtained from the FEWSNet Web site and computed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climatic Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC). These datasets were processed and used to monitor rainfall variability and subsequently fed into a hydrological model to predict the daily flows for the Zambezi River Basin. The hydrological model used was the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). GeoSFM is a spatially semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, parameterised using spatially distributed topographic data, soil characteristics and land cover data sets available globally from both Remote Sensing and in situ sources. The Satellite rainfall data were validated against data from twenty (20) rainfall gauges located on the Lower Zambezi. However, at several rain gauge stations (especially those with complex topography, which tended to experience high rainfall spatial variability), there was no direct correlation between the satellite estimates and the ground data as recorded in daily time steps. The model was calibrated for seven gauging stations. The calibrated model performed quite well at seven selected locations (R2=0.66 to 0.90, CE=0.51 to 0.88, RSR=0.35 to 0.69, PBIAS=−4.5 to 7.5). The observed data were obtained from the National Water Agencies of the riparian countries. After GeoSFM calibration, the model generated an integration of the flows into a reservoir and hydropower model to optimise the operation of Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams were selected because this study considers these two dams as the major infrastructures for controlling and alleviating floods in the Zambezi River Basin. Other dams (such as the Kafue and Itezhi-Thezi) were recognised in terms of their importance but including them was beyond the scope of this study because of financial and time constraints. The licence of the reservoir model was limited to one year for the same reason. The reservoir model used was the MIKE BASIN, a professional engineering software package and quasi-steady-state mass balance modelling tool for integrated river basin and management, developed by the Denmark Hydraulic Institute (DHI) in 2003. The model was parameterised by the geometry of the reservoir basin (level, area, volume relationships) and by the discharge-level (Q-h) relationship of the dam spillways. The integrated modelling system simulated the daily flow variation for all Zambezi River sub-basins between 1998 and 2008 and validated between 2009 and 2011. The resulting streamflows have been expressed in terms of hydrograph comparisons between simulated and observed flow values at the four gauging stations located downstream of Cahora Bassa dam. The integrated model performed well, between observed and forecast streamflows, at four selected gauging stations (R2=0.53 to 0.90, CE=0.50 to 0.80, RSR=0.49 to 0.69, PBIAS=−2.10 to 4.8). From the results of integrated modelling, it was observed that both Kariba and Cahora Bassa are currently being operated based on the maximum rule curve and both remain focused on maximising hydropower production and ensuring dam safety rather than other potential influences by the Zambezi River (such as flood control downstream – where the communities are located – and environmental issues). In addition, the flood mapping analysis demonstrated that the Cahora Bassa dam plays an important part in flood mitigation downstream of the dams. In the absence of optimisation of flow releases from both the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, in additional to the contribution of any other tributaries located downstream of the dams, the impact of flooding can be severe. As such, this study has developed new approaches for flood monitoring downstream of the Zambezi Basin, through the application of an integrated modelling system. The modelling system consists of: predicting daily streamflow (using the calibrated GeoSFM), then feeding the predicted streamflow into MIKE BASIN (for checking the operating rules) and to optimise the releases. Therefore, before releases are made, the flood maps can be used as a decision-making tool to both assess the impact of each level of release downstream and to identify the communities likely to be affected by the flood – this ensures that the necessary warnings can be issued before flooding occurs. Finally an integrated flood management tool was proposed – to host the results produced by the integrated system – which would then be accessible for assessment by the different users. These results were expressed in terms of water level (m). Four discharge-level (Q-h) relationships were developed for converting the simulated flow into water level at four selected sites downstream of Cahora Bassa dam – namely: Cahora Bassa dam site, Tete (E-320), Caia (E-291) and Marromeu (E-285). However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggested that improved monitoring systems may be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality was improved.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Vilanculos, Agostinho Chuquelane Fadulo
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Hydrologic models -- Zambezi River Watershed , Watershed management -- Zambezi River Watershed , Water resources development -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood control -- Zambezi River Watershed , Flood forecasting -- Zambezi River Watershed , Rain gauges -- Zambezi River Watershed
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6054 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018915
- Description: The recent high profile flooding events – that have occurred in many parts of the world – have drawn attention to the need for new and improved methods for water resources assessment, water management and the modelling of large-scale flooding events. In the case of the Zambezi Basin, a review of the 2000 and 2001 floods identified the need for tools to enable hydrologists to assess and predict daily stream flow and identify the areas that are likely to be affected by flooding. As a way to address the problem, a methodology was set up to derive catchment soil moisture statistics from Earth Observation (EO) data and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models for improving reservoir management in a data scarce environment. Rainfall data were obtained from the FEWSNet Web site and computed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climatic Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC). These datasets were processed and used to monitor rainfall variability and subsequently fed into a hydrological model to predict the daily flows for the Zambezi River Basin. The hydrological model used was the Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM), developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). GeoSFM is a spatially semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, parameterised using spatially distributed topographic data, soil characteristics and land cover data sets available globally from both Remote Sensing and in situ sources. The Satellite rainfall data were validated against data from twenty (20) rainfall gauges located on the Lower Zambezi. However, at several rain gauge stations (especially those with complex topography, which tended to experience high rainfall spatial variability), there was no direct correlation between the satellite estimates and the ground data as recorded in daily time steps. The model was calibrated for seven gauging stations. The calibrated model performed quite well at seven selected locations (R2=0.66 to 0.90, CE=0.51 to 0.88, RSR=0.35 to 0.69, PBIAS=−4.5 to 7.5). The observed data were obtained from the National Water Agencies of the riparian countries. After GeoSFM calibration, the model generated an integration of the flows into a reservoir and hydropower model to optimise the operation of Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams were selected because this study considers these two dams as the major infrastructures for controlling and alleviating floods in the Zambezi River Basin. Other dams (such as the Kafue and Itezhi-Thezi) were recognised in terms of their importance but including them was beyond the scope of this study because of financial and time constraints. The licence of the reservoir model was limited to one year for the same reason. The reservoir model used was the MIKE BASIN, a professional engineering software package and quasi-steady-state mass balance modelling tool for integrated river basin and management, developed by the Denmark Hydraulic Institute (DHI) in 2003. The model was parameterised by the geometry of the reservoir basin (level, area, volume relationships) and by the discharge-level (Q-h) relationship of the dam spillways. The integrated modelling system simulated the daily flow variation for all Zambezi River sub-basins between 1998 and 2008 and validated between 2009 and 2011. The resulting streamflows have been expressed in terms of hydrograph comparisons between simulated and observed flow values at the four gauging stations located downstream of Cahora Bassa dam. The integrated model performed well, between observed and forecast streamflows, at four selected gauging stations (R2=0.53 to 0.90, CE=0.50 to 0.80, RSR=0.49 to 0.69, PBIAS=−2.10 to 4.8). From the results of integrated modelling, it was observed that both Kariba and Cahora Bassa are currently being operated based on the maximum rule curve and both remain focused on maximising hydropower production and ensuring dam safety rather than other potential influences by the Zambezi River (such as flood control downstream – where the communities are located – and environmental issues). In addition, the flood mapping analysis demonstrated that the Cahora Bassa dam plays an important part in flood mitigation downstream of the dams. In the absence of optimisation of flow releases from both the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, in additional to the contribution of any other tributaries located downstream of the dams, the impact of flooding can be severe. As such, this study has developed new approaches for flood monitoring downstream of the Zambezi Basin, through the application of an integrated modelling system. The modelling system consists of: predicting daily streamflow (using the calibrated GeoSFM), then feeding the predicted streamflow into MIKE BASIN (for checking the operating rules) and to optimise the releases. Therefore, before releases are made, the flood maps can be used as a decision-making tool to both assess the impact of each level of release downstream and to identify the communities likely to be affected by the flood – this ensures that the necessary warnings can be issued before flooding occurs. Finally an integrated flood management tool was proposed – to host the results produced by the integrated system – which would then be accessible for assessment by the different users. These results were expressed in terms of water level (m). Four discharge-level (Q-h) relationships were developed for converting the simulated flow into water level at four selected sites downstream of Cahora Bassa dam – namely: Cahora Bassa dam site, Tete (E-320), Caia (E-291) and Marromeu (E-285). However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggested that improved monitoring systems may be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality was improved.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Investigating integrated catchment management using a simple water quantity and quality model : a case study of the Crocodile River Catchment, South Africa
- Retief, Daniel Christoffel Hugo
- Authors: Retief, Daniel Christoffel Hugo
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Watersheds -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality management -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality -- Measurement
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017875
- Description: Internationally, water resources are facing increasing pressure due to over-exploitation and pollution. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) has been accepted internationally as a paradigm for integrative and sustainable management of water resources. However, in practice, the implementation and success of IWRM policies has been hampered by the lack of availability of integrative decision support tools, especially within the context of limited resources and observed data. This is true for the Crocodile River Catchment (CRC), located within the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. The catchment has been experiencing a decline in water quality as a result of the point source input of a cocktail of pollutants, which are discharged from industrial and municipal wastewater treatment plants, as well as diffuse source runoff and return flows from the extensive areas of irrigated agriculture and mining sites. The decline in water quality has profound implications for a range of stakeholders across the catchment including increased treatment costs and reduced crop yields. The combination of deteriorating water quality and the lack of understanding of the relationships between water quantity and quality for determining compliance/non-compliance in the CRC have resulted in collaboration between stakeholders, willing to work in a participatory and transparent manner to create an Integrated Water Quality Management Plan (IWQMP). This project aimed to model water quality, (combined water quality and quantity), to facilitate the IWQMP aiding in the understanding of the relationship between water quantity and quality in the CRC. A relatively simple water quality model (WQSAM) was used that receives inputs from established water quantity systems models, and was designed to be a water quality decision support tool for South African catchments. The model was applied to the CRC, achieving acceptable simulations of total dissolved solids (used as a surrogate for salinity) and nutrients (including orthophosphates, nitrates +nitrites and ammonium) for historical conditions. Validation results revealed that there is little consistency within the catchment, attributed to the non-stationary nature of water quality at many of the sites in the CRC. The analyses of the results using a number of representations including, seasonal load distributions, load duration curves and load flow plots, confirmed that the WQSAM model was able to capture the variability of relationships between water quantity and quality, provided that simulated hydrology was sufficiently accurate. The outputs produced by WQSAM was seen as useful for the CRC, with the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) planning to operationalise the model in 2015. The ability of WQSAM to simulate water quality in data scarce catchments, with constituents that are appropriate for the needs of water resource management within South Africa, is highly beneficial.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Retief, Daniel Christoffel Hugo
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Watersheds -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality management -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality -- Measurement
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6050 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017875
- Description: Internationally, water resources are facing increasing pressure due to over-exploitation and pollution. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) has been accepted internationally as a paradigm for integrative and sustainable management of water resources. However, in practice, the implementation and success of IWRM policies has been hampered by the lack of availability of integrative decision support tools, especially within the context of limited resources and observed data. This is true for the Crocodile River Catchment (CRC), located within the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. The catchment has been experiencing a decline in water quality as a result of the point source input of a cocktail of pollutants, which are discharged from industrial and municipal wastewater treatment plants, as well as diffuse source runoff and return flows from the extensive areas of irrigated agriculture and mining sites. The decline in water quality has profound implications for a range of stakeholders across the catchment including increased treatment costs and reduced crop yields. The combination of deteriorating water quality and the lack of understanding of the relationships between water quantity and quality for determining compliance/non-compliance in the CRC have resulted in collaboration between stakeholders, willing to work in a participatory and transparent manner to create an Integrated Water Quality Management Plan (IWQMP). This project aimed to model water quality, (combined water quality and quantity), to facilitate the IWQMP aiding in the understanding of the relationship between water quantity and quality in the CRC. A relatively simple water quality model (WQSAM) was used that receives inputs from established water quantity systems models, and was designed to be a water quality decision support tool for South African catchments. The model was applied to the CRC, achieving acceptable simulations of total dissolved solids (used as a surrogate for salinity) and nutrients (including orthophosphates, nitrates +nitrites and ammonium) for historical conditions. Validation results revealed that there is little consistency within the catchment, attributed to the non-stationary nature of water quality at many of the sites in the CRC. The analyses of the results using a number of representations including, seasonal load distributions, load duration curves and load flow plots, confirmed that the WQSAM model was able to capture the variability of relationships between water quantity and quality, provided that simulated hydrology was sufficiently accurate. The outputs produced by WQSAM was seen as useful for the CRC, with the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) planning to operationalise the model in 2015. The ability of WQSAM to simulate water quality in data scarce catchments, with constituents that are appropriate for the needs of water resource management within South Africa, is highly beneficial.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Exploring the development of an integrated, participative, water quality management process for the Crocodile River catchment, focusing on the sugar industry
- Authors: Sahula, Asiphe
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water quality management -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Watersheds -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality management -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Social responsibility of business -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6051 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017876
- Description: Water quality deterioration is reaching crisis proportions in South Africa. Many South African catchments are over-allocated, and decreasing volumes of source water mean increasing concentrations of pollutants. The Crocodile River Catchment in the Mpumalanga province in South Africa was identified through previous research, as a catchment faced with deteriorating source water quality for water users in the catchment. Poor source water quality has become a sufficiently acute concern for the stakeholders in this catchment to co-operate in developing a process that assists with compliance control of their water use and waste disposal to reduce costs, decrease industrial risks as water quality compliance increases, and improve source water quality. The sugar industry is downstream within the Crocodile River Catchment, and is affected by the activities of all upstream water users; the industry is thus dependent on the stakeholders upstream participating in the effective management of the resource. However, the sugar industry is also located just before the confluence of the Crocodile River and Komati River upstream of the Mozambique border, and thus the water quality of the sugar industry effluent will affect the quality of the water that flows into Mozambique. The sugar industry is on the opposite river bank to the Kruger National Park, which has high water resource protection goals. Therefore, the sugar industry has a national role to play in the management of water resources in the Crocodile River Catchment. This study provides a focused view of the role of the sugar industry in the development of a co-operative, integrated water quality management process (IWQMP) in the Crocodile River Catchment. In order to address the objectives of this study, this research drew from an understanding of the social processes that influence water management practices within the sugar industry as well as social processes that influence the role of the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency as the main governing institution in water resource management in the Inkomati Water Management Area. The study also drew from an understanding of scientific knowledge in terms of a water chemistry which describes the upstream and downstream water quality impacts related to the sugar industry. The water quality analysis for the Lower Crocodile River Catchment shows a decline in water quality in terms of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) loads when moving from below Mbombela to the Mozambique border. The major sources of TDS in the Lower Crocodile River are point source dominated, which may be attributed to the extensive mining, industrial and municipal activities that occur across the catchment. When observing Total Alkalinity (TAL) and pH values from below Mbombela to the furthest monitoring point, there is deterioration in the quality of the water in the Lower Crocodile River, with the Kaap River contributing a negative effect that is diluted by the Crocodile main stem. The Hectorspruit Waste Water Treatment Works (WWTWs) (located in the Lower Crocodile River Catchment) contributes high concentrations of TDS and TAL into the Crocodile River. Total Inorganic Nitrogen and Soluble Reactive Phosphorus concentrations decrease in the lower reaches of the Crocodile River compared with the river below Mbombela, which can be attributed to the extensive sugar cane plantations located in the Lower Crocodile River Catchment acting as an “agricultural wetland” that serves a function of bioremediation resulting in large scale absorption of nutrients. This is an interesting result as earlier assumptions were that fertiliser application would result in an overall increase in nutrient loads and concentrations. Biomonitoring data show no substantial change in aquatic health in the LowerCrocodile River Catchment. For a catchment that has an extensive agricultural land use in terms of sugarcane and citrus production, the Crocodile River is unexpectedly not in a toxic state in terms of aquatic health. This is a positive result and it suggests that pesticide use is strictly controlled in the sugar and citrus industry in the Crocodile River Catchment. For long term sustainability, it is essential for the sugar industry to maintain (and possibly improve) this pesticide management. The social component of this study aimed to provide an analysis of the management practices of the sugar mill as well as examining agricultural practices in the sugar cane fields in relation to water quality management through the use of Cultural Historical Activity System Theory (CHAT). This component showed that there are contradictions within the sugar industry activity system that are considered to be areas of “tension” that can be loosened or focused on to improve the contribution the sugar industry can make to the IWQMP. Surfacing contradictions within the sugar industry activity system and the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency activity systems highlighted areas of potential for learning and change. While an understanding of biophysical processes through scientific knowledge is critical in water management decision making, it is evident that an understanding of other actors, institutions and networks that inform water quality management decision-making also plays a significant role. The notion of improving the role of scientific or biophysical knowledge in contributing to socio-ecologically robust knowledge co-creation, decisions and actions towards resolving water quality problems is emphasised. Specifically, moving towards improving interactions between scientists and other actors (water users in the Crocodile Catchment in this case), so that scientific practices become more orientated towards societal platforms where water quality management is tackled to enable improved water quality management practices. Therefore, linking the social and biophysical components in this study provides a holistic understanding of how the sugar industry can contribute to the development of an IWQMP for the Crocodile River catchment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Sahula, Asiphe
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water quality management -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Watersheds -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality management -- Social aspects -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Social responsibility of business -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga) , Water quality -- South Africa -- Krokodilrivier (Mpumalanga)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6051 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017876
- Description: Water quality deterioration is reaching crisis proportions in South Africa. Many South African catchments are over-allocated, and decreasing volumes of source water mean increasing concentrations of pollutants. The Crocodile River Catchment in the Mpumalanga province in South Africa was identified through previous research, as a catchment faced with deteriorating source water quality for water users in the catchment. Poor source water quality has become a sufficiently acute concern for the stakeholders in this catchment to co-operate in developing a process that assists with compliance control of their water use and waste disposal to reduce costs, decrease industrial risks as water quality compliance increases, and improve source water quality. The sugar industry is downstream within the Crocodile River Catchment, and is affected by the activities of all upstream water users; the industry is thus dependent on the stakeholders upstream participating in the effective management of the resource. However, the sugar industry is also located just before the confluence of the Crocodile River and Komati River upstream of the Mozambique border, and thus the water quality of the sugar industry effluent will affect the quality of the water that flows into Mozambique. The sugar industry is on the opposite river bank to the Kruger National Park, which has high water resource protection goals. Therefore, the sugar industry has a national role to play in the management of water resources in the Crocodile River Catchment. This study provides a focused view of the role of the sugar industry in the development of a co-operative, integrated water quality management process (IWQMP) in the Crocodile River Catchment. In order to address the objectives of this study, this research drew from an understanding of the social processes that influence water management practices within the sugar industry as well as social processes that influence the role of the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency as the main governing institution in water resource management in the Inkomati Water Management Area. The study also drew from an understanding of scientific knowledge in terms of a water chemistry which describes the upstream and downstream water quality impacts related to the sugar industry. The water quality analysis for the Lower Crocodile River Catchment shows a decline in water quality in terms of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) loads when moving from below Mbombela to the Mozambique border. The major sources of TDS in the Lower Crocodile River are point source dominated, which may be attributed to the extensive mining, industrial and municipal activities that occur across the catchment. When observing Total Alkalinity (TAL) and pH values from below Mbombela to the furthest monitoring point, there is deterioration in the quality of the water in the Lower Crocodile River, with the Kaap River contributing a negative effect that is diluted by the Crocodile main stem. The Hectorspruit Waste Water Treatment Works (WWTWs) (located in the Lower Crocodile River Catchment) contributes high concentrations of TDS and TAL into the Crocodile River. Total Inorganic Nitrogen and Soluble Reactive Phosphorus concentrations decrease in the lower reaches of the Crocodile River compared with the river below Mbombela, which can be attributed to the extensive sugar cane plantations located in the Lower Crocodile River Catchment acting as an “agricultural wetland” that serves a function of bioremediation resulting in large scale absorption of nutrients. This is an interesting result as earlier assumptions were that fertiliser application would result in an overall increase in nutrient loads and concentrations. Biomonitoring data show no substantial change in aquatic health in the LowerCrocodile River Catchment. For a catchment that has an extensive agricultural land use in terms of sugarcane and citrus production, the Crocodile River is unexpectedly not in a toxic state in terms of aquatic health. This is a positive result and it suggests that pesticide use is strictly controlled in the sugar and citrus industry in the Crocodile River Catchment. For long term sustainability, it is essential for the sugar industry to maintain (and possibly improve) this pesticide management. The social component of this study aimed to provide an analysis of the management practices of the sugar mill as well as examining agricultural practices in the sugar cane fields in relation to water quality management through the use of Cultural Historical Activity System Theory (CHAT). This component showed that there are contradictions within the sugar industry activity system that are considered to be areas of “tension” that can be loosened or focused on to improve the contribution the sugar industry can make to the IWQMP. Surfacing contradictions within the sugar industry activity system and the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency activity systems highlighted areas of potential for learning and change. While an understanding of biophysical processes through scientific knowledge is critical in water management decision making, it is evident that an understanding of other actors, institutions and networks that inform water quality management decision-making also plays a significant role. The notion of improving the role of scientific or biophysical knowledge in contributing to socio-ecologically robust knowledge co-creation, decisions and actions towards resolving water quality problems is emphasised. Specifically, moving towards improving interactions between scientists and other actors (water users in the Crocodile Catchment in this case), so that scientific practices become more orientated towards societal platforms where water quality management is tackled to enable improved water quality management practices. Therefore, linking the social and biophysical components in this study provides a holistic understanding of how the sugar industry can contribute to the development of an IWQMP for the Crocodile River catchment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Social-ecological resilience for well-being : a critical realist case study of Boksburg Lake, South Africa
- Authors: Fox, Helen Elizabeth
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Boksburg Lake and Wetland project , Reservoirs -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Water -- Pollution -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Human ecology -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Social learning -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Critical realism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017872
- Description: This thesis is based on a case study of the degraded Boksburg Lake social-ecological system and an environmental education initiative that aimed to support its transformation. This initiative aimed to involve local people in reclaiming the lake’s social and ecological value, through a process of collectively reimagining possibilities, shaping identities, gaining knowledge and developing local human agency. The focus was on social learning processes in schools and churches to explore opportunities for co-engaged reflexivity that might produce transformation. Schools and Christian churches, two institutions that reflect modern, western socialecological worldviews also have the potential to bring about change. Critical Realism was chosen as my philosophical framework as it provided the tools to explore deeper mechanisms beyond empirical reality, both influencing the degrading trajectory as well as providing possibilities for transformation. It also legitimised case study research as a means to understand more generalised processes characterising modern social-ecological systems. The choice of Critical Realism informed the scope of my primary research question: What generative mechanisms constrain and enable the development of social-ecological resilience for well-being, in the modern social-ecological system of Boksburg Lake? The following three goals were formulated to address this primary question. Goal 1: Based on a multitheoretical perspective of social-ecological literature, develop conceptual tools that have explanatory power to probe generative mechanisms operating in the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. Goal 2: Identify generative mechanisms driving the current degradation of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. Goal 3: Identify learning mechanisms that support transformation for greater social-ecological resilience of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. By addressing the primary question and research goals I aimed to gain insights into modern global socialecological systems, the mechanisms that drive high social-ecological risk and the requirements for and possibilities of global systemic change. Drawing on a broad reading of social-ecological literature from different vantage points, tools with explanatory power were developed to probe for generative mechanisms in the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system (goal 1). The human capacity for symbolic representation is identified as an emergent property of coevolving human-ecological systems. These symbolic representations become expressed in culture and worldviews, and influence patterns of identifying, types of knowledge and forms of agency. The nature of these will determine the degree that cultural systems are embedded within ecological reality and the extent of cultural-ecological coupling. A cultural system closely coupled with ecological realities is likely to value ecological systems and manage them for their health, while less coupled cultural-ecological systems are likely to lead to the opposite. Because of their integrated nature, the extent of ecological health and value will affect the decline or sustainability of cultural-ecological systems. There are numerous examples of the learning that can take place when cultural-ecological systems are facing decline. This learning can enhance or reduce biophyllic instincts that become encoded in patterns of identifying, types of knowledge and forms of agency. This in turn affects the strength of cultural-ecological coupling and the extent that human societies co-evolve with ecological systems. , Normalising ideologies is a concept coined in the thesis to refer to symbolic representations of reality that have become integral to a social fabric and determine meaning, while maintaining the domination of the powerful. These ideologies determine patterns of identifying, knowledge and agency and are recognised as having a fundamental influence on the resilience of social-ecological systems. Four normalising ideologies are identified that promote apparent human progress at the expense of ecological integrity and social equality and thus alienation with each other and the ecological world. These are human-ecological dualism, anthropocentrism, nature is mechanised and nature is to be controlled. There are also a number of ideologies promoting connectedness with the ecological world that, if they became normalised, would support greater social-ecological resilience for well-being. Generative mechanisms driving the current degradation of the Boksburg Lake socialecological system were identified (goal 2). Drawing on critical methodology, the main method adopted was document analysis of the Boksburg Advertiser archives, Boksburg’s local newspaper. Four generative mechanisms are recognised as most influential. Two of these have been named hegemonic symbolic systems. The primary symbolic system consists of the four normalising ideologies, mentioned above, that promote human progress at the expense of ecological health. The secondary, more explicit symbolic system, built on this, consists of the following normative ideologies: economic growth is imperative, unrestrained development is promoted, competition is the necessary means and consumerism is the good life. These two symbolic systems have had causal influence on the systematic erosion of ecological processes and biological diversity that has occurred in Boksburg, with the consequent undermining of social-ecological resilience for well-being. The third mechanism that constrains resilience is the power dynamics that have shaped Boksburg’s economic history and social-ecological system. This has resulted in a society built on inequality and injustice with all its associated social and environmental ills, expressed as externalities. The fourth mechanism resides in Boksburg’s political and municipal dynamics. These structures are not designed to tackle complex social-ecological problems and they hold considerable agential power, yet seem dysfunctional at present. Learning mechanisms that support transformation for greater social-ecological resilience of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system were identified (goal 3). By adopting the role of a reflexive practitioner, supported by action research, case study and interpretivist methodologies, data on the empirical manifestations of the environmental educational initiative were collected. Methods included semistructured interviews, focus groups, document analysis and participant observation. Findings indicate that schools and churches are important institutions that can positively influence patterns of identifying, knowledge about and agency for Boksburg Lake and can thus play a role in transforming hegemonic normalising ideologies. Important learning mechanisms identified included: Learning reflexively together within communities of practice that provide opportunities for active rather than passive learning; involving the youth as they are a group of people with notable enthusiasm, vision, energy and motivation; learning through information acquisition, investigation, action and deliberation; learning about abstract concepts and theoretical knowledge but embedding this in local realities; and learning that provides reference markers for how things can be different.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Fox, Helen Elizabeth
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Boksburg Lake and Wetland project , Reservoirs -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Water -- Pollution -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Human ecology -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Social learning -- South Africa -- Boksburg , Critical realism
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6048 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017872
- Description: This thesis is based on a case study of the degraded Boksburg Lake social-ecological system and an environmental education initiative that aimed to support its transformation. This initiative aimed to involve local people in reclaiming the lake’s social and ecological value, through a process of collectively reimagining possibilities, shaping identities, gaining knowledge and developing local human agency. The focus was on social learning processes in schools and churches to explore opportunities for co-engaged reflexivity that might produce transformation. Schools and Christian churches, two institutions that reflect modern, western socialecological worldviews also have the potential to bring about change. Critical Realism was chosen as my philosophical framework as it provided the tools to explore deeper mechanisms beyond empirical reality, both influencing the degrading trajectory as well as providing possibilities for transformation. It also legitimised case study research as a means to understand more generalised processes characterising modern social-ecological systems. The choice of Critical Realism informed the scope of my primary research question: What generative mechanisms constrain and enable the development of social-ecological resilience for well-being, in the modern social-ecological system of Boksburg Lake? The following three goals were formulated to address this primary question. Goal 1: Based on a multitheoretical perspective of social-ecological literature, develop conceptual tools that have explanatory power to probe generative mechanisms operating in the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. Goal 2: Identify generative mechanisms driving the current degradation of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. Goal 3: Identify learning mechanisms that support transformation for greater social-ecological resilience of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system. By addressing the primary question and research goals I aimed to gain insights into modern global socialecological systems, the mechanisms that drive high social-ecological risk and the requirements for and possibilities of global systemic change. Drawing on a broad reading of social-ecological literature from different vantage points, tools with explanatory power were developed to probe for generative mechanisms in the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system (goal 1). The human capacity for symbolic representation is identified as an emergent property of coevolving human-ecological systems. These symbolic representations become expressed in culture and worldviews, and influence patterns of identifying, types of knowledge and forms of agency. The nature of these will determine the degree that cultural systems are embedded within ecological reality and the extent of cultural-ecological coupling. A cultural system closely coupled with ecological realities is likely to value ecological systems and manage them for their health, while less coupled cultural-ecological systems are likely to lead to the opposite. Because of their integrated nature, the extent of ecological health and value will affect the decline or sustainability of cultural-ecological systems. There are numerous examples of the learning that can take place when cultural-ecological systems are facing decline. This learning can enhance or reduce biophyllic instincts that become encoded in patterns of identifying, types of knowledge and forms of agency. This in turn affects the strength of cultural-ecological coupling and the extent that human societies co-evolve with ecological systems. , Normalising ideologies is a concept coined in the thesis to refer to symbolic representations of reality that have become integral to a social fabric and determine meaning, while maintaining the domination of the powerful. These ideologies determine patterns of identifying, knowledge and agency and are recognised as having a fundamental influence on the resilience of social-ecological systems. Four normalising ideologies are identified that promote apparent human progress at the expense of ecological integrity and social equality and thus alienation with each other and the ecological world. These are human-ecological dualism, anthropocentrism, nature is mechanised and nature is to be controlled. There are also a number of ideologies promoting connectedness with the ecological world that, if they became normalised, would support greater social-ecological resilience for well-being. Generative mechanisms driving the current degradation of the Boksburg Lake socialecological system were identified (goal 2). Drawing on critical methodology, the main method adopted was document analysis of the Boksburg Advertiser archives, Boksburg’s local newspaper. Four generative mechanisms are recognised as most influential. Two of these have been named hegemonic symbolic systems. The primary symbolic system consists of the four normalising ideologies, mentioned above, that promote human progress at the expense of ecological health. The secondary, more explicit symbolic system, built on this, consists of the following normative ideologies: economic growth is imperative, unrestrained development is promoted, competition is the necessary means and consumerism is the good life. These two symbolic systems have had causal influence on the systematic erosion of ecological processes and biological diversity that has occurred in Boksburg, with the consequent undermining of social-ecological resilience for well-being. The third mechanism that constrains resilience is the power dynamics that have shaped Boksburg’s economic history and social-ecological system. This has resulted in a society built on inequality and injustice with all its associated social and environmental ills, expressed as externalities. The fourth mechanism resides in Boksburg’s political and municipal dynamics. These structures are not designed to tackle complex social-ecological problems and they hold considerable agential power, yet seem dysfunctional at present. Learning mechanisms that support transformation for greater social-ecological resilience of the Boksburg Lake social-ecological system were identified (goal 3). By adopting the role of a reflexive practitioner, supported by action research, case study and interpretivist methodologies, data on the empirical manifestations of the environmental educational initiative were collected. Methods included semistructured interviews, focus groups, document analysis and participant observation. Findings indicate that schools and churches are important institutions that can positively influence patterns of identifying, knowledge about and agency for Boksburg Lake and can thus play a role in transforming hegemonic normalising ideologies. Important learning mechanisms identified included: Learning reflexively together within communities of practice that provide opportunities for active rather than passive learning; involving the youth as they are a group of people with notable enthusiasm, vision, energy and motivation; learning through information acquisition, investigation, action and deliberation; learning about abstract concepts and theoretical knowledge but embedding this in local realities; and learning that provides reference markers for how things can be different.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
The value of locally isolated freshwater micro-algae in toxicity testing for water resource management in South Africa
- Authors: Gola, Nontutuzelo Pearl
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Microalgae -- South Africa , Toxicity testing , Water resources development -- South Africa , Aquatic habitats -- South Africa , Water -- Pollution -- Toxicology , Water quality management -- South Africa , Sewage disposal in rivers, lakes, etc. -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6049 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017873
- Description: The ecological position of micro-algae at the base of the aquatic food web makes them critical components of aquatic ecosystems. Their short generation time also makes them useful biological indicators because they respond quickly to changes in environmental condition, enabling timely identification and assessment of water quality changes. The inclusion of micro-algae as indicators in water resource regulation and management in South Africa has started recently, their more extensive use in biomonitoring and ecotoxicology programmes for water resource management would contribute to the South African policy if water resource protection. The standard algal growth inhibition assay with the species Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is currently used for monitoring toxicity of in-stream and industrial wastewater discharges to freshwater micro-algae. The relevance of the data generated by standard toxicity bioassays has been questioned, since micro-algae in particular are extremely variable in their sensitivity to a range of contaminants and these standard species used may not occur in the local aquatic environment. As a result, international regulatory agencies, have recommended algal growth inhibition tests be changed from a single standard species to tests with a number of species. One recommendation, in addition to the use of standard toxicity tests, is the use of species isolated from the local environment which may be more relevant for assessing site specific impacts. This study investigated the value and application of locally isolated South African freshwater micro-algae in toxicity tests for water resource management and was carried out in three phases. The first phase involved isolating micro-algae from South African aquatic resources. Micro-algae suitable for toxicity testing were identified and selected using as set of criteria. Three (Scenedesmus bicaudatus, Chlorella sorokiniana and Chlorella vulgaris) out of eight successfully isolated species satisfied the prescribed selection criteria and these were selected as potential toxicity test species. The second phase focused on refining and adapting the existing algal toxicity test protocol (the algal growth inhibition assay) for use on the locally isolated algal species. The refinement of the test protocol was achieved by exposing the locally isolated species to reference toxicants in order to assess and compare their growth and sensitivity to the toxicants under the prescribed toxicity test conditions with that of the standard toxicity test species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and a commercial laboratory species (Chlorella protothecoides). During this phase, one of the three local species (Scenedesmus bicaudatus) was eliminated as a potential toxicity test species due to inconsistent growth. The third phase of the study involved assessing the sensitivity of the two remaining species (C. vulgaris and C. sorokiniana) to a range of toxicants (reference toxicants, salts, effluents and a herbicide) and comparing it to that of the standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata and C. protothecoides. The toxicants were selected based on their relative importance in the South African context, as well as the practicality of using these local micro-algae to routinely determine the impact of these toxicants on local aquatic resources. The growth of the four micro-algae was stimulated by the selected effluents. The standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata was ranked the most sensitive and of the four species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. Chlorella sorokiniana was ranked the most sensitive of the three Chlorella species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. The herbicide stimulated the growth of C. vulgaris while inhibiting the growth of the other species. Pseudokirchneriela subcapitata and C. sorokiniana showed high intra-specific variability in growth, which made it difficult to determine the effective concentrations of the herbicide and therefore compare the sensitivity of the species. This varied response of micro-algal species to toxicants may result in the biodiversity shifts in aquatic ecosystems, and also supports the recommendation of using a battery of different species to support more informed decisions in water resource management.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Gola, Nontutuzelo Pearl
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Microalgae -- South Africa , Toxicity testing , Water resources development -- South Africa , Aquatic habitats -- South Africa , Water -- Pollution -- Toxicology , Water quality management -- South Africa , Sewage disposal in rivers, lakes, etc. -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6049 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017873
- Description: The ecological position of micro-algae at the base of the aquatic food web makes them critical components of aquatic ecosystems. Their short generation time also makes them useful biological indicators because they respond quickly to changes in environmental condition, enabling timely identification and assessment of water quality changes. The inclusion of micro-algae as indicators in water resource regulation and management in South Africa has started recently, their more extensive use in biomonitoring and ecotoxicology programmes for water resource management would contribute to the South African policy if water resource protection. The standard algal growth inhibition assay with the species Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is currently used for monitoring toxicity of in-stream and industrial wastewater discharges to freshwater micro-algae. The relevance of the data generated by standard toxicity bioassays has been questioned, since micro-algae in particular are extremely variable in their sensitivity to a range of contaminants and these standard species used may not occur in the local aquatic environment. As a result, international regulatory agencies, have recommended algal growth inhibition tests be changed from a single standard species to tests with a number of species. One recommendation, in addition to the use of standard toxicity tests, is the use of species isolated from the local environment which may be more relevant for assessing site specific impacts. This study investigated the value and application of locally isolated South African freshwater micro-algae in toxicity tests for water resource management and was carried out in three phases. The first phase involved isolating micro-algae from South African aquatic resources. Micro-algae suitable for toxicity testing were identified and selected using as set of criteria. Three (Scenedesmus bicaudatus, Chlorella sorokiniana and Chlorella vulgaris) out of eight successfully isolated species satisfied the prescribed selection criteria and these were selected as potential toxicity test species. The second phase focused on refining and adapting the existing algal toxicity test protocol (the algal growth inhibition assay) for use on the locally isolated algal species. The refinement of the test protocol was achieved by exposing the locally isolated species to reference toxicants in order to assess and compare their growth and sensitivity to the toxicants under the prescribed toxicity test conditions with that of the standard toxicity test species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and a commercial laboratory species (Chlorella protothecoides). During this phase, one of the three local species (Scenedesmus bicaudatus) was eliminated as a potential toxicity test species due to inconsistent growth. The third phase of the study involved assessing the sensitivity of the two remaining species (C. vulgaris and C. sorokiniana) to a range of toxicants (reference toxicants, salts, effluents and a herbicide) and comparing it to that of the standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata and C. protothecoides. The toxicants were selected based on their relative importance in the South African context, as well as the practicality of using these local micro-algae to routinely determine the impact of these toxicants on local aquatic resources. The growth of the four micro-algae was stimulated by the selected effluents. The standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata was ranked the most sensitive and of the four species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. Chlorella sorokiniana was ranked the most sensitive of the three Chlorella species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. The herbicide stimulated the growth of C. vulgaris while inhibiting the growth of the other species. Pseudokirchneriela subcapitata and C. sorokiniana showed high intra-specific variability in growth, which made it difficult to determine the effective concentrations of the herbicide and therefore compare the sensitivity of the species. This varied response of micro-algal species to toxicants may result in the biodiversity shifts in aquatic ecosystems, and also supports the recommendation of using a battery of different species to support more informed decisions in water resource management.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Fire and water : a transdisciplinary investigation of water governance in the lower Sundays River Valley, South Africa
- Authors: Clifford-Holmes, Jai Kumar
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Lower Sundays River Valley Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Water -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Management , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Fire extinction -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water quality management -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water resources development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6047 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017870
- Description: The implementation of water policy and the integrated management of water face multiple challenges in South Africa (SA), despite the successes of post-apartheid government programmes in which some significant equity, sustainability and efficiency milestones have been met. This study uses a series of intervention processes into municipal water service delivery to explore the context, constraints, and real-world messiness in which local water authorities operate. The equitable provision of drinking water by local government and the collaborative management of untreated water by ‘water user associations’ are two sites of institutional conflict that have been subjected to broad ‘turnaround’ and ‘transformation’ attempts at the national level. This thesis seeks to explore and understand the use of transdisciplinary research in engaging local water authorities in a process of institutional change that increases the likelihood of equitable water supply in the Lower Sundays River Valley (LSRV). Fieldwork was conducted as part of a broader action research process involving the attempted ‘turnaround’ of the Sundays River Valley Municipality (SRVM) between 2011 and 2014. A multi-method research approach was employed, which drew on institutional, ethnographic, and systems analyses within an evolving, transdisciplinary methodology. In the single case study research design, qualitative and quantitative data were collected via participant observation, interviews and documentary sources. Analytical methods included system dynamics modelling and an adapted form of the ethnographic tool of ‘thick description’, which were linked in a governance analysis. Government interventions into the SRVM failed to take account of the systemic complexity of the municipal operating environment, the interactions of which are described in this study as the ‘modes of failure’ of local government. These modes included the perpetual ‘firefighting’ responses of municipal officials to crises, and the simultaneous underinvestment in, and over-extension of, water supply infrastructure, which is a rational approach to addressing current water shortages when funds are unavailable for maintenance, refurbishment, or the construction of new infrastructure. The over-burdening of municipalities with technocratic requirements, the presence of gaps in the institutional arrangements governing water supply in the LSRV, and the lack of coordination in government interventions are analysed in this study, with policy recommendations resulting. The primary contribution of this study is in providing a substantively-contextualised case study that illustrates the value of systemic, engaged, extended, and embedded transdisciplinary research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Clifford-Holmes, Jai Kumar
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Lower Sundays River Valley Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Water -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Management , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Fire extinction -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Integrated water development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water quality management -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Water resources development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6047 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017870
- Description: The implementation of water policy and the integrated management of water face multiple challenges in South Africa (SA), despite the successes of post-apartheid government programmes in which some significant equity, sustainability and efficiency milestones have been met. This study uses a series of intervention processes into municipal water service delivery to explore the context, constraints, and real-world messiness in which local water authorities operate. The equitable provision of drinking water by local government and the collaborative management of untreated water by ‘water user associations’ are two sites of institutional conflict that have been subjected to broad ‘turnaround’ and ‘transformation’ attempts at the national level. This thesis seeks to explore and understand the use of transdisciplinary research in engaging local water authorities in a process of institutional change that increases the likelihood of equitable water supply in the Lower Sundays River Valley (LSRV). Fieldwork was conducted as part of a broader action research process involving the attempted ‘turnaround’ of the Sundays River Valley Municipality (SRVM) between 2011 and 2014. A multi-method research approach was employed, which drew on institutional, ethnographic, and systems analyses within an evolving, transdisciplinary methodology. In the single case study research design, qualitative and quantitative data were collected via participant observation, interviews and documentary sources. Analytical methods included system dynamics modelling and an adapted form of the ethnographic tool of ‘thick description’, which were linked in a governance analysis. Government interventions into the SRVM failed to take account of the systemic complexity of the municipal operating environment, the interactions of which are described in this study as the ‘modes of failure’ of local government. These modes included the perpetual ‘firefighting’ responses of municipal officials to crises, and the simultaneous underinvestment in, and over-extension of, water supply infrastructure, which is a rational approach to addressing current water shortages when funds are unavailable for maintenance, refurbishment, or the construction of new infrastructure. The over-burdening of municipalities with technocratic requirements, the presence of gaps in the institutional arrangements governing water supply in the LSRV, and the lack of coordination in government interventions are analysed in this study, with policy recommendations resulting. The primary contribution of this study is in providing a substantively-contextualised case study that illustrates the value of systemic, engaged, extended, and embedded transdisciplinary research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Uncertainties in modelling hydrological responses in gauged and ungauged sub‐basins
- Authors: Tumbo, Madaka Harold
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Hydrologic models , Watersheds -- Tanzania , Water-supply -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Water resources development -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Rain gauges -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Great Ruaha River Watershed (Tanzania)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018568
- Description: The world is undergoing rapid changes and the future is uncertain. The changes are related to modification of the landscape due to human activities, such as large and small scale irrigation, afforestation and changes to the climate system. Understanding and predicting hydrologic change is one of the challenges facing hydrologists today. Part of this understanding can be developed from observed data, however, there often too few observations and those that are available are frequently affected by uncertainties. Hydrological models have become essential tools for understanding historical variations of catchment hydrology and for predicting future possible trends. However, most developing countries are faced with poor spatial distributions of rainfall and evaporation stations that provide the data used to force models, as well as stream flow gauging stations to provide the data for establishing models and for evaluating their success. Hydrological models are faced with a number of challenges which include poor input data (data quality and poorly quantified human activities on observed stream flow data), uncertainties associated with model complexity and structure, the methods used to quantify model parameters, together with the difficulties of understanding hydrological processes at the catchment or subbasin. Within hydrological modelling, there is currently a trend of dealing with equifinality through the evaluation of parameter identifiability and the quantification of uncertainty bands associated with the predictions of the model. Hydrological models should not only focus on reproducing the past behaviour of a basin, but also on evaluating the representativeness of the surface and subsurface model components and their ability to simulate reality for the correct reasons. Part of this modelling process therefore involves quantifying and including all the possible sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis has become the standard approach to most hydrological modelling studies, but has yet to be effectively used in practical water resources assessment. This study applied a hydrological modelling approach for understanding the hydrology of a large Tanzanian drainage basin, the Great Ruaha River that has many areas that are ungauged and where the available data (climate, stream flow and existing water use) are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The Great Ruaha River (GRR) is an upstream tributary of the Rufiji River Basin within Tanzania and covers an area of 86 000 km2. The basin is drained by four main tributaries; the Upper Great Ruaha, the Kisigo, the Little Ruaha and the Lukosi. The majority of the runoff is generated from the Chunya escarpment, the Kipengere ranges and the Poroto Mountains. The runoff generated feeds the alluvial and seasonally flooded Usangu plains (including the Ihefu perennial swamp). The majority of the irrigation water use in the basin is located where headwater sub‐basins drain towards the Usangu plains. The overall objective was to establish uncertain but behavioural hydrological models that could be useful for future water resources assessments that are likely to include issues of land use change, changes in patterns of abstraction and water use, as well the possibility of change in future climates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Tumbo, Madaka Harold
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Hydrologic models , Watersheds -- Tanzania , Water-supply -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Water resources development -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Rain gauges -- Tanzania -- Great Ruaha River Watershed , Great Ruaha River Watershed (Tanzania)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6053 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1018568
- Description: The world is undergoing rapid changes and the future is uncertain. The changes are related to modification of the landscape due to human activities, such as large and small scale irrigation, afforestation and changes to the climate system. Understanding and predicting hydrologic change is one of the challenges facing hydrologists today. Part of this understanding can be developed from observed data, however, there often too few observations and those that are available are frequently affected by uncertainties. Hydrological models have become essential tools for understanding historical variations of catchment hydrology and for predicting future possible trends. However, most developing countries are faced with poor spatial distributions of rainfall and evaporation stations that provide the data used to force models, as well as stream flow gauging stations to provide the data for establishing models and for evaluating their success. Hydrological models are faced with a number of challenges which include poor input data (data quality and poorly quantified human activities on observed stream flow data), uncertainties associated with model complexity and structure, the methods used to quantify model parameters, together with the difficulties of understanding hydrological processes at the catchment or subbasin. Within hydrological modelling, there is currently a trend of dealing with equifinality through the evaluation of parameter identifiability and the quantification of uncertainty bands associated with the predictions of the model. Hydrological models should not only focus on reproducing the past behaviour of a basin, but also on evaluating the representativeness of the surface and subsurface model components and their ability to simulate reality for the correct reasons. Part of this modelling process therefore involves quantifying and including all the possible sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis has become the standard approach to most hydrological modelling studies, but has yet to be effectively used in practical water resources assessment. This study applied a hydrological modelling approach for understanding the hydrology of a large Tanzanian drainage basin, the Great Ruaha River that has many areas that are ungauged and where the available data (climate, stream flow and existing water use) are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The Great Ruaha River (GRR) is an upstream tributary of the Rufiji River Basin within Tanzania and covers an area of 86 000 km2. The basin is drained by four main tributaries; the Upper Great Ruaha, the Kisigo, the Little Ruaha and the Lukosi. The majority of the runoff is generated from the Chunya escarpment, the Kipengere ranges and the Poroto Mountains. The runoff generated feeds the alluvial and seasonally flooded Usangu plains (including the Ihefu perennial swamp). The majority of the irrigation water use in the basin is located where headwater sub‐basins drain towards the Usangu plains. The overall objective was to establish uncertain but behavioural hydrological models that could be useful for future water resources assessments that are likely to include issues of land use change, changes in patterns of abstraction and water use, as well the possibility of change in future climates.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
Water resources availability in the Caledon River basin : past, present and future
- Authors: Mohobane, Thabiso
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water-supply -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Hydrologic models -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Precipitation forecasting -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Water-supply -- Forecasting , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Evapotranspiration -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6055 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019802
- Description: The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Mohobane, Thabiso
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Water-supply -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Hydrologic models -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Precipitation forecasting -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley , Water-supply -- Forecasting , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Evapotranspiration -- South Africa -- Caledon River Valley
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6055 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1019802
- Description: The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
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