Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model
- Authors: Kapangaziwiri, Evison
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172 , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Description: In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Kapangaziwiri, Evison
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:6033 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172 , Rain and rainfall -- Mathematical models , Runoff -- Mathematical models , Hydrology -- Mathematical models , Water supply -- South Africa , Water resources development -- South Africa
- Description: In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Understanding and modelling of surface and groundwater interactions
- Authors: Tanner, Jane Louise
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Groundwater -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Management , Integrated water development , Hydrogeology , Water resources development -- South Africa , Water -- Analysis , Groundwater -- Management , Watersheds -- South Africa , Hydrologic models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012994
- Description: The connections between surface water and groundwater systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Managing water resources in an integrated manner is not straightforward, particularly if both resources are being utilised, and especially in those regions that suffer problems of data scarcity. This study explores some of the principle issues associated with understanding and practically modelling surface and groundwater interactions. In South Africa, there remains much controversy over the most appropriate type of integrated model to be used and the way forward in terms of the development of the discipline; part of the disagreement stems from the fact that we cannot validate models adequately. This is largely due to traditional forms of model testing having limited power as it is difficult to differentiate between the uncertainties within different model structures, different sets of alternative parameter values and in the input data used to run the model. While model structural uncertainties are important to consider, the uncertainty from input data error together with parameter estimation error are often more significant to the overall residual error, and essential to consider if we want to achieve reliable predictions for water resource decisions. While new philosophies and theories on modelling and results validation have been developed (Beven, 2002; Gupta et al., 2008), in many cases models are not only still being validated and compared using sparse and uncertain datasets, but also expected to produce reliable predictions based on the flawed data. The approach in this study is focused on fundamental understanding of hydrological systems rather than calibration based modelling and promotes the use of all the available 'hard' and 'soft' data together with thoughtful conceptual examination of the processes occurring in an environment to ensure as far as possible that a model is generating sensible results by simulating the correct processes. The first part of the thesis focuses on characterising the 'typical' interaction environments found in South Africa. It was found that many traditional perceptual models are not necessarily applicable to South African conditions, largely due to the relative importance of unsaturated zone processes and the complexity of the dominantly fractured rock environments. The interaction environments were categorised into four main 'types' of environment. These include karst, primary, fractured rock (secondary), and alluvial environments. Processes critical to Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) were defined within each interaction type as a guideline to setting a model up to realistically represent the dominant processes in the respective settings. The second part of the thesis addressed the application and evaluation of the modified Pitman model (Hughes, 2004), which allows for surface and groundwater interaction behaviour at the catchment scale to be simulated. The issue is whether, given the different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process, we can differentiate one conceptual flow path from another in trying to refine the understanding and consequently have more faith in model predictions. Seven example catchments were selected from around South Africa to assess whether reliable integrated assessments can be carried out given the existing data. Specific catchment perceptual models were used to identify the critical processes occurring in each setting and the Pitman model was assessed on whether it could represent them (structural uncertainty). The available knowledge of specific environments or catchments was then examined in an attempt to resolve the parameter uncertainty present within each catchment and ensure the subsequent model setup was correctly representing the process understanding as far as possible. The confidence in the quantitative results inevitably varied with the amount and quality of the data available. While the model was deemed to be robust based on the behavioural results obtained in the majority of the case studies, in many cases a quantitative validation of the outputs was just not possible based on the available data. In these cases, the model was judged on its ability to represent the conceptualisation of the processes occurring in the catchments. While the lack of appropriate data means there will always be considerable uncertainty surrounding model validation, it can be argued that improved process understanding in an environment can be used to validate model outcomes to a degree, by assessing whether a model is getting the right results for the right reasons. Many water resource decisions are still made without adequate account being taken of the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response of hydrological systems. Certainly, with all the possible sources of uncertainty in a data scarce country such as South Africa, pure calibration based modelling is unlikely to produce reliable information for water resource managers as it can produce the right results for the wrong reasons. Thus it becomes essential to incorporate conceptual thinking into the modelling process, so that at the very least we are able to conclude that a model generates estimates that are consistent with, and reflect, our understanding (however limited) of the catchment processes. It is fairly clear that achieving the optimum model of a hydrological system may be fraught with difficulty, if not impossible. This makes it very difficult from a practitioner's point of view to decide which model and uncertainty estimation method to use. According to Beven (2009), this may be a transitional problem and in the future it may become clearer as we learn more about how to estimate the uncertainties associated with hydrological systems. Until then, a better understanding of the fundamental and most critical hydrogeological processes should be used to critically test and improve model predictions as far as possible. A major focus of the study was to identify whether the modified Pitman model could provide a practical tool for water resource managers by reliably determining the available water resource. The incorporation of surface and groundwater interaction routines seems to have resulted in a more robust and realistic model of basin hydrology. The overall conclusion is that the model, although simplified, is capable of representing the catchment scale processes that occur under most South African conditions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Tanner, Jane Louise
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Groundwater -- South Africa , Water-supply -- Management , Integrated water development , Hydrogeology , Water resources development -- South Africa , Water -- Analysis , Groundwater -- Management , Watersheds -- South Africa , Hydrologic models
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6043 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012994
- Description: The connections between surface water and groundwater systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Managing water resources in an integrated manner is not straightforward, particularly if both resources are being utilised, and especially in those regions that suffer problems of data scarcity. This study explores some of the principle issues associated with understanding and practically modelling surface and groundwater interactions. In South Africa, there remains much controversy over the most appropriate type of integrated model to be used and the way forward in terms of the development of the discipline; part of the disagreement stems from the fact that we cannot validate models adequately. This is largely due to traditional forms of model testing having limited power as it is difficult to differentiate between the uncertainties within different model structures, different sets of alternative parameter values and in the input data used to run the model. While model structural uncertainties are important to consider, the uncertainty from input data error together with parameter estimation error are often more significant to the overall residual error, and essential to consider if we want to achieve reliable predictions for water resource decisions. While new philosophies and theories on modelling and results validation have been developed (Beven, 2002; Gupta et al., 2008), in many cases models are not only still being validated and compared using sparse and uncertain datasets, but also expected to produce reliable predictions based on the flawed data. The approach in this study is focused on fundamental understanding of hydrological systems rather than calibration based modelling and promotes the use of all the available 'hard' and 'soft' data together with thoughtful conceptual examination of the processes occurring in an environment to ensure as far as possible that a model is generating sensible results by simulating the correct processes. The first part of the thesis focuses on characterising the 'typical' interaction environments found in South Africa. It was found that many traditional perceptual models are not necessarily applicable to South African conditions, largely due to the relative importance of unsaturated zone processes and the complexity of the dominantly fractured rock environments. The interaction environments were categorised into four main 'types' of environment. These include karst, primary, fractured rock (secondary), and alluvial environments. Processes critical to Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) were defined within each interaction type as a guideline to setting a model up to realistically represent the dominant processes in the respective settings. The second part of the thesis addressed the application and evaluation of the modified Pitman model (Hughes, 2004), which allows for surface and groundwater interaction behaviour at the catchment scale to be simulated. The issue is whether, given the different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process, we can differentiate one conceptual flow path from another in trying to refine the understanding and consequently have more faith in model predictions. Seven example catchments were selected from around South Africa to assess whether reliable integrated assessments can be carried out given the existing data. Specific catchment perceptual models were used to identify the critical processes occurring in each setting and the Pitman model was assessed on whether it could represent them (structural uncertainty). The available knowledge of specific environments or catchments was then examined in an attempt to resolve the parameter uncertainty present within each catchment and ensure the subsequent model setup was correctly representing the process understanding as far as possible. The confidence in the quantitative results inevitably varied with the amount and quality of the data available. While the model was deemed to be robust based on the behavioural results obtained in the majority of the case studies, in many cases a quantitative validation of the outputs was just not possible based on the available data. In these cases, the model was judged on its ability to represent the conceptualisation of the processes occurring in the catchments. While the lack of appropriate data means there will always be considerable uncertainty surrounding model validation, it can be argued that improved process understanding in an environment can be used to validate model outcomes to a degree, by assessing whether a model is getting the right results for the right reasons. Many water resource decisions are still made without adequate account being taken of the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response of hydrological systems. Certainly, with all the possible sources of uncertainty in a data scarce country such as South Africa, pure calibration based modelling is unlikely to produce reliable information for water resource managers as it can produce the right results for the wrong reasons. Thus it becomes essential to incorporate conceptual thinking into the modelling process, so that at the very least we are able to conclude that a model generates estimates that are consistent with, and reflect, our understanding (however limited) of the catchment processes. It is fairly clear that achieving the optimum model of a hydrological system may be fraught with difficulty, if not impossible. This makes it very difficult from a practitioner's point of view to decide which model and uncertainty estimation method to use. According to Beven (2009), this may be a transitional problem and in the future it may become clearer as we learn more about how to estimate the uncertainties associated with hydrological systems. Until then, a better understanding of the fundamental and most critical hydrogeological processes should be used to critically test and improve model predictions as far as possible. A major focus of the study was to identify whether the modified Pitman model could provide a practical tool for water resource managers by reliably determining the available water resource. The incorporation of surface and groundwater interaction routines seems to have resulted in a more robust and realistic model of basin hydrology. The overall conclusion is that the model, although simplified, is capable of representing the catchment scale processes that occur under most South African conditions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
The value of locally isolated freshwater micro-algae in toxicity testing for water resource management in South Africa
- Authors: Gola, Nontutuzelo Pearl
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Microalgae -- South Africa , Toxicity testing , Water resources development -- South Africa , Aquatic habitats -- South Africa , Water -- Pollution -- Toxicology , Water quality management -- South Africa , Sewage disposal in rivers, lakes, etc. -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6049 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017873
- Description: The ecological position of micro-algae at the base of the aquatic food web makes them critical components of aquatic ecosystems. Their short generation time also makes them useful biological indicators because they respond quickly to changes in environmental condition, enabling timely identification and assessment of water quality changes. The inclusion of micro-algae as indicators in water resource regulation and management in South Africa has started recently, their more extensive use in biomonitoring and ecotoxicology programmes for water resource management would contribute to the South African policy if water resource protection. The standard algal growth inhibition assay with the species Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is currently used for monitoring toxicity of in-stream and industrial wastewater discharges to freshwater micro-algae. The relevance of the data generated by standard toxicity bioassays has been questioned, since micro-algae in particular are extremely variable in their sensitivity to a range of contaminants and these standard species used may not occur in the local aquatic environment. As a result, international regulatory agencies, have recommended algal growth inhibition tests be changed from a single standard species to tests with a number of species. One recommendation, in addition to the use of standard toxicity tests, is the use of species isolated from the local environment which may be more relevant for assessing site specific impacts. This study investigated the value and application of locally isolated South African freshwater micro-algae in toxicity tests for water resource management and was carried out in three phases. The first phase involved isolating micro-algae from South African aquatic resources. Micro-algae suitable for toxicity testing were identified and selected using as set of criteria. Three (Scenedesmus bicaudatus, Chlorella sorokiniana and Chlorella vulgaris) out of eight successfully isolated species satisfied the prescribed selection criteria and these were selected as potential toxicity test species. The second phase focused on refining and adapting the existing algal toxicity test protocol (the algal growth inhibition assay) for use on the locally isolated algal species. The refinement of the test protocol was achieved by exposing the locally isolated species to reference toxicants in order to assess and compare their growth and sensitivity to the toxicants under the prescribed toxicity test conditions with that of the standard toxicity test species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and a commercial laboratory species (Chlorella protothecoides). During this phase, one of the three local species (Scenedesmus bicaudatus) was eliminated as a potential toxicity test species due to inconsistent growth. The third phase of the study involved assessing the sensitivity of the two remaining species (C. vulgaris and C. sorokiniana) to a range of toxicants (reference toxicants, salts, effluents and a herbicide) and comparing it to that of the standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata and C. protothecoides. The toxicants were selected based on their relative importance in the South African context, as well as the practicality of using these local micro-algae to routinely determine the impact of these toxicants on local aquatic resources. The growth of the four micro-algae was stimulated by the selected effluents. The standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata was ranked the most sensitive and of the four species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. Chlorella sorokiniana was ranked the most sensitive of the three Chlorella species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. The herbicide stimulated the growth of C. vulgaris while inhibiting the growth of the other species. Pseudokirchneriela subcapitata and C. sorokiniana showed high intra-specific variability in growth, which made it difficult to determine the effective concentrations of the herbicide and therefore compare the sensitivity of the species. This varied response of micro-algal species to toxicants may result in the biodiversity shifts in aquatic ecosystems, and also supports the recommendation of using a battery of different species to support more informed decisions in water resource management.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
- Authors: Gola, Nontutuzelo Pearl
- Date: 2015
- Subjects: Microalgae -- South Africa , Toxicity testing , Water resources development -- South Africa , Aquatic habitats -- South Africa , Water -- Pollution -- Toxicology , Water quality management -- South Africa , Sewage disposal in rivers, lakes, etc. -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:6049 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1017873
- Description: The ecological position of micro-algae at the base of the aquatic food web makes them critical components of aquatic ecosystems. Their short generation time also makes them useful biological indicators because they respond quickly to changes in environmental condition, enabling timely identification and assessment of water quality changes. The inclusion of micro-algae as indicators in water resource regulation and management in South Africa has started recently, their more extensive use in biomonitoring and ecotoxicology programmes for water resource management would contribute to the South African policy if water resource protection. The standard algal growth inhibition assay with the species Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata is currently used for monitoring toxicity of in-stream and industrial wastewater discharges to freshwater micro-algae. The relevance of the data generated by standard toxicity bioassays has been questioned, since micro-algae in particular are extremely variable in their sensitivity to a range of contaminants and these standard species used may not occur in the local aquatic environment. As a result, international regulatory agencies, have recommended algal growth inhibition tests be changed from a single standard species to tests with a number of species. One recommendation, in addition to the use of standard toxicity tests, is the use of species isolated from the local environment which may be more relevant for assessing site specific impacts. This study investigated the value and application of locally isolated South African freshwater micro-algae in toxicity tests for water resource management and was carried out in three phases. The first phase involved isolating micro-algae from South African aquatic resources. Micro-algae suitable for toxicity testing were identified and selected using as set of criteria. Three (Scenedesmus bicaudatus, Chlorella sorokiniana and Chlorella vulgaris) out of eight successfully isolated species satisfied the prescribed selection criteria and these were selected as potential toxicity test species. The second phase focused on refining and adapting the existing algal toxicity test protocol (the algal growth inhibition assay) for use on the locally isolated algal species. The refinement of the test protocol was achieved by exposing the locally isolated species to reference toxicants in order to assess and compare their growth and sensitivity to the toxicants under the prescribed toxicity test conditions with that of the standard toxicity test species (Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata) and a commercial laboratory species (Chlorella protothecoides). During this phase, one of the three local species (Scenedesmus bicaudatus) was eliminated as a potential toxicity test species due to inconsistent growth. The third phase of the study involved assessing the sensitivity of the two remaining species (C. vulgaris and C. sorokiniana) to a range of toxicants (reference toxicants, salts, effluents and a herbicide) and comparing it to that of the standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata and C. protothecoides. The toxicants were selected based on their relative importance in the South African context, as well as the practicality of using these local micro-algae to routinely determine the impact of these toxicants on local aquatic resources. The growth of the four micro-algae was stimulated by the selected effluents. The standard toxicity test species P. subcapitata was ranked the most sensitive and of the four species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. Chlorella sorokiniana was ranked the most sensitive of the three Chlorella species to two reference toxicants and two inorganic salts. The herbicide stimulated the growth of C. vulgaris while inhibiting the growth of the other species. Pseudokirchneriela subcapitata and C. sorokiniana showed high intra-specific variability in growth, which made it difficult to determine the effective concentrations of the herbicide and therefore compare the sensitivity of the species. This varied response of micro-algal species to toxicants may result in the biodiversity shifts in aquatic ecosystems, and also supports the recommendation of using a battery of different species to support more informed decisions in water resource management.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2015
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