Analysis of the existence of the Phillips curve, Okun’s law and Taylor rule in the Zambian economy
- Authors: Chella, Siame Nampasa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Unemployment -- Effect of inflation -- Mathematical models --Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49783 , vital:41800
- Description: The objective for this study was to explore the relationship between inflation and growth with an understanding of the effects of unemployment on growth. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the existence of Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law, and Taylor Rule in Zambia on the basis that Zambia is a youthful economy, with a growing population, which is expected to temper with unemployment rates, as an increase in the supply of labour might be too high for the demand for jobs available. To be specific, the study aims at determining the relationship between inflation and growth and seeks to understand what policy measures have been undertaken to curb inflation and reduce unemployment in Zambia. To achieve this, a quantitative research was undertaken using the ARDL cointegration model in conjunction with sensitivity tests to cater for structural changes in the economy with 2007 standing as the break point, as well as paying attention to the fact that different policy regimes employed during the course of the data covered, that being, 1996 to 2017, would affect that rates of unemployment, inflation and growth of the country, across period under review. The study revealed that Zambia faces a Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve during the period under study which is dominated by a mixture of both back-ward and forward-looking aspects of inflation. This specifically, paints the effects of inflation persistence as well future expectations of inflation on growth. Further, a cointegration relationship was established between unemployment and output, while Taylor principles were found not to apply to the Zambian economy, which have proved in other economies to be foundation blocks for good economic growth and as such significant to both fiscal and monetary policy authorities of the economy. The researcher therefore recommends that Zambian policy makers, that is, both the fiscal and the monetary authorities, work together in order to attain minimal and optimal levels of inflation to help achieve a conducive economic environment for the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Chella, Siame Nampasa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Unemployment -- Effect of inflation -- Mathematical models --Zambia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49783 , vital:41800
- Description: The objective for this study was to explore the relationship between inflation and growth with an understanding of the effects of unemployment on growth. The primary objective of this paper was to investigate the existence of Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law, and Taylor Rule in Zambia on the basis that Zambia is a youthful economy, with a growing population, which is expected to temper with unemployment rates, as an increase in the supply of labour might be too high for the demand for jobs available. To be specific, the study aims at determining the relationship between inflation and growth and seeks to understand what policy measures have been undertaken to curb inflation and reduce unemployment in Zambia. To achieve this, a quantitative research was undertaken using the ARDL cointegration model in conjunction with sensitivity tests to cater for structural changes in the economy with 2007 standing as the break point, as well as paying attention to the fact that different policy regimes employed during the course of the data covered, that being, 1996 to 2017, would affect that rates of unemployment, inflation and growth of the country, across period under review. The study revealed that Zambia faces a Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve during the period under study which is dominated by a mixture of both back-ward and forward-looking aspects of inflation. This specifically, paints the effects of inflation persistence as well future expectations of inflation on growth. Further, a cointegration relationship was established between unemployment and output, while Taylor principles were found not to apply to the Zambian economy, which have proved in other economies to be foundation blocks for good economic growth and as such significant to both fiscal and monetary policy authorities of the economy. The researcher therefore recommends that Zambian policy makers, that is, both the fiscal and the monetary authorities, work together in order to attain minimal and optimal levels of inflation to help achieve a conducive economic environment for the country.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions
- Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Authors: Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects -- Africa , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50404 , vital:42162
- Description: This study employs the panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group technique to examine the effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions using the panel data from the period of 1970 to 2014 for five Southern African Development Community group of countries. The increase in the combustion of burning fossil fuels has become the global threat in environmental quality. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis postulates that at the primary stages of industrial economies there is more extracting of natural resources and more agricultural activities taking place as a result the waste generation and resource depletion accelerate. However, as the economic development improves more, the curve reaches a threshold where it starts to decline due to the increase in economic growth and the change to information-based industries. Based on the empirical evidence, the variables of this study were found to be stationary at first difference and integrated of I(0) and I(1) using Im, Pesaran & Shin W-stat, Fisher ADF, and Levin, Lin & Chu panel unit root test. The existing long-run relationship between the variables were found in both the Pedroni and Kao cointegration test and were significant at 5% in finding the relationship between the variables. The Pooled Mean Group demonstrated mixed results in the study’s regressions, monotonic relationship was found between carbon dioxide and economic growth. The strong existence relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was found to be significant at the 1% level. These results are in line with the EKC hypothesis, which assumes that as the income level increases the society will start to be environmentally friendly and the technology advancement will decrease the emission of pollutants. In addition, in finding the causal relationship between variables, the researcher used the Granger causality test, with the results from this test revealing a unidirectional and bidirectional relationship between all the chosen variables. These results are important for policy makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mkunyana, Asebenzile Priscilla
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects -- Africa , Climate change mitigation
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50404 , vital:42162
- Description: This study employs the panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group technique to examine the effects of economic growth on greenhouse emissions using the panel data from the period of 1970 to 2014 for five Southern African Development Community group of countries. The increase in the combustion of burning fossil fuels has become the global threat in environmental quality. The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis postulates that at the primary stages of industrial economies there is more extracting of natural resources and more agricultural activities taking place as a result the waste generation and resource depletion accelerate. However, as the economic development improves more, the curve reaches a threshold where it starts to decline due to the increase in economic growth and the change to information-based industries. Based on the empirical evidence, the variables of this study were found to be stationary at first difference and integrated of I(0) and I(1) using Im, Pesaran & Shin W-stat, Fisher ADF, and Levin, Lin & Chu panel unit root test. The existing long-run relationship between the variables were found in both the Pedroni and Kao cointegration test and were significant at 5% in finding the relationship between the variables. The Pooled Mean Group demonstrated mixed results in the study’s regressions, monotonic relationship was found between carbon dioxide and economic growth. The strong existence relationship between economic growth and energy consumption was found to be significant at the 1% level. These results are in line with the EKC hypothesis, which assumes that as the income level increases the society will start to be environmentally friendly and the technology advancement will decrease the emission of pollutants. In addition, in finding the causal relationship between variables, the researcher used the Granger causality test, with the results from this test revealing a unidirectional and bidirectional relationship between all the chosen variables. These results are important for policy makers.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
A Social Media Method for Eliciting Millennials’ Worldviews on the Coastal and Marine Environment
- Authors: Okuah, Obrukevwe Anehwe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Millennialism -- Environmental aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48588 , vital:40893
- Description: A lack of involvement by participants with traditional data collection methods for research has led to insufficient data regarding millennials’ worldviews on the coastal and marine environment. Understanding millennial worldviews could provide insights for policy interventions for sustainable use of the marine and coastal environment. The aim of this research is to design, develop and evaluate an appropriate social media method to elicit millennials’ worldviews on the coastal and marine environment. The methodology used for the research was Design Science Research (DSR), which is a legitimate approach to conducting research in the field of Information Systems. The methods used were a literature review, interviews with social media experts and Social Media Influencers (SMIs), and a focus group discussion with researchers from the field of social sciences. The proposed artefact (the method) can be used to provide guidance to researchers for engaging and eliciting opinions and worldviews of millennials on social media. The method includes a Social Media Influencer Model that illustrates the relationship between SMIs’ characteristics and techniques for engaging the public, and a Social Media Analytics (SMA) Process model that can guide researchers through the steps of eliciting worldviews from the public. Although there are several SMA techniques that can be used, the proposed method uses sentiment analysis as an SMA technique for deriving sentiments from social media data. The method was evaluated by researchers who require a social media method for eliciting millennials worldviews. The findings confirmed some of the techniques identified in literature as well as some additional techniques and processes. It was also evident that using this method could assist researchers for data collection and specifically to obtain worldviews on the marine and coastal environment. The contribution of this study is an artefact that fulfils the need for a social media method for data collection that is more convenient for researchers and millennials and can guide researchers through the steps of eliciting worldviews from the public.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Okuah, Obrukevwe Anehwe
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Millennialism -- Environmental aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48588 , vital:40893
- Description: A lack of involvement by participants with traditional data collection methods for research has led to insufficient data regarding millennials’ worldviews on the coastal and marine environment. Understanding millennial worldviews could provide insights for policy interventions for sustainable use of the marine and coastal environment. The aim of this research is to design, develop and evaluate an appropriate social media method to elicit millennials’ worldviews on the coastal and marine environment. The methodology used for the research was Design Science Research (DSR), which is a legitimate approach to conducting research in the field of Information Systems. The methods used were a literature review, interviews with social media experts and Social Media Influencers (SMIs), and a focus group discussion with researchers from the field of social sciences. The proposed artefact (the method) can be used to provide guidance to researchers for engaging and eliciting opinions and worldviews of millennials on social media. The method includes a Social Media Influencer Model that illustrates the relationship between SMIs’ characteristics and techniques for engaging the public, and a Social Media Analytics (SMA) Process model that can guide researchers through the steps of eliciting worldviews from the public. Although there are several SMA techniques that can be used, the proposed method uses sentiment analysis as an SMA technique for deriving sentiments from social media data. The method was evaluated by researchers who require a social media method for eliciting millennials worldviews. The findings confirmed some of the techniques identified in literature as well as some additional techniques and processes. It was also evident that using this method could assist researchers for data collection and specifically to obtain worldviews on the marine and coastal environment. The contribution of this study is an artefact that fulfils the need for a social media method for data collection that is more convenient for researchers and millennials and can guide researchers through the steps of eliciting worldviews from the public.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Cryptocurrencies in the future of money and monetary policy
- Authors: Brown, Henry Brandon
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47495 , vital:40122
- Description: The idiosyncratic allure of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, has attracted widespread, if reticent, attention in the financial markets. Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2008 there has been a growing interest in digital assets possibly supplanting traditional payment methods. Two conceptual questions raised regarding cryptocurrencies are firstly, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money; secondly, what is the future of cryptocurrencies? This dissertation seeks to examine the future of cryptocurrency by reference to money and monetary policy. The further question, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money, is tested via a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis. The study explores both statistical and empirical models, in illustrative comparative detail, provided by analysis which included ADF and KPSS test models, alongside an ARMA(p,q)-GARCH(1,1) model. Cryptocurrencies present both significant benefits, alongside immense shortcomings. They provide the novel ability to conduct anonymous international transactions on a decentralised platform with lower transaction fees. However, the very nature of that anonymity could provide their downfall as much as they open a market for illicit activities. In addition, cryptocurrency’s significant energy consumption through the mining of cryptocurrencies is of concern to environmentalists. The empirical section of the dissertation consists of a comparative analysis between Bitcoin/USD time series to the Rand/USD time series, with specific attention devoted to the level of volatility of each time series. This was important in determining whether cryptocurrencies fulfil the store of value function of money. The dissertation concluded that Bitcoin/USD time series exhibited identifiable adverse characteristics of autocorrelation and ARCH effects, thus suggesting that Bitcoin/USD is strongly associated with volatility. The Rand/USD signified the same effects although of significantly lesser order than that of Bitcoin/USD. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are seen to act more as an asset than a currency. Nonetheless, cryptocurrencies seem likely to grow as a medium of exchange as more and more businesses gain knowledge of the innovation and seek to adopt innovative ways to become more efficient and follow technology trends. Currently, fiat currencies remain superior in the financial market, simply because cryptocurrencies are perceived not to fulfil the traditional functions of money. However in the future, the market share of cryptocurrencies is likely to increase, and so the future of the financial markets will surely include a coexistence of both fiat and cryptocurrencies, as people’s preferences determine where they feel safe to hold their money.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Brown, Henry Brandon
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Cryptocurrencies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47495 , vital:40122
- Description: The idiosyncratic allure of cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, has attracted widespread, if reticent, attention in the financial markets. Since Bitcoin’s introduction in 2008 there has been a growing interest in digital assets possibly supplanting traditional payment methods. Two conceptual questions raised regarding cryptocurrencies are firstly, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money; secondly, what is the future of cryptocurrencies? This dissertation seeks to examine the future of cryptocurrency by reference to money and monetary policy. The further question, whether cryptocurrencies meet the traditional functions of money, is tested via a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis. The study explores both statistical and empirical models, in illustrative comparative detail, provided by analysis which included ADF and KPSS test models, alongside an ARMA(p,q)-GARCH(1,1) model. Cryptocurrencies present both significant benefits, alongside immense shortcomings. They provide the novel ability to conduct anonymous international transactions on a decentralised platform with lower transaction fees. However, the very nature of that anonymity could provide their downfall as much as they open a market for illicit activities. In addition, cryptocurrency’s significant energy consumption through the mining of cryptocurrencies is of concern to environmentalists. The empirical section of the dissertation consists of a comparative analysis between Bitcoin/USD time series to the Rand/USD time series, with specific attention devoted to the level of volatility of each time series. This was important in determining whether cryptocurrencies fulfil the store of value function of money. The dissertation concluded that Bitcoin/USD time series exhibited identifiable adverse characteristics of autocorrelation and ARCH effects, thus suggesting that Bitcoin/USD is strongly associated with volatility. The Rand/USD signified the same effects although of significantly lesser order than that of Bitcoin/USD. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are seen to act more as an asset than a currency. Nonetheless, cryptocurrencies seem likely to grow as a medium of exchange as more and more businesses gain knowledge of the innovation and seek to adopt innovative ways to become more efficient and follow technology trends. Currently, fiat currencies remain superior in the financial market, simply because cryptocurrencies are perceived not to fulfil the traditional functions of money. However in the future, the market share of cryptocurrencies is likely to increase, and so the future of the financial markets will surely include a coexistence of both fiat and cryptocurrencies, as people’s preferences determine where they feel safe to hold their money.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Revenue, Trade and Welfare Implications of the BRICS Free Trade Agreement on South Africa
- Authors: Mayende, Nosiphiwo Andisa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- Statistics -- South Africa , International business enterprises -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50316 , vital:42105
- Description: The analysis presented in the study is based on the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)/Software Market analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) was used to assess the impacts of the BRICS free trade area (FTA) on South Africa’s revenue, trade and welfare. The findings of the study show that the BRICS FTA is expected to increase imports into South Africa from China, India, Brazil and Russia by $188 million, $469.6 million, $145 million and $19.7 million, respectively. In the same vein, the country is expected to have trade diversion totalling $886.86 million which are largely caused by China with $564.7 million dollars. The combined effects of trade creation and trade diversion, that is, total imports, is expected to lead $1.7 billion in imports surge as a result of BRICS FTA. With regard to the revenue effect, the WITS/SMART simulations indicate that South Africa will have a total fiscal revenue loss of US$1.926 billion if the BRICS FTA is implemented. Major losers include motor vehicles with a loss of US$235.6 million, footwear with US$168.6 million, garments with a loss of US$97 million and textile materials with a loss of $96 million. Overall, South Africa’s exports are expected to increase by $354 million thanks to the BRICS FTA. From the above analysis it is apparent that South Africa will both lose and benefit by joining the BRICS.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mayende, Nosiphiwo Andisa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- Statistics -- South Africa , International business enterprises -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50316 , vital:42105
- Description: The analysis presented in the study is based on the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)/Software Market analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) was used to assess the impacts of the BRICS free trade area (FTA) on South Africa’s revenue, trade and welfare. The findings of the study show that the BRICS FTA is expected to increase imports into South Africa from China, India, Brazil and Russia by $188 million, $469.6 million, $145 million and $19.7 million, respectively. In the same vein, the country is expected to have trade diversion totalling $886.86 million which are largely caused by China with $564.7 million dollars. The combined effects of trade creation and trade diversion, that is, total imports, is expected to lead $1.7 billion in imports surge as a result of BRICS FTA. With regard to the revenue effect, the WITS/SMART simulations indicate that South Africa will have a total fiscal revenue loss of US$1.926 billion if the BRICS FTA is implemented. Major losers include motor vehicles with a loss of US$235.6 million, footwear with US$168.6 million, garments with a loss of US$97 million and textile materials with a loss of $96 million. Overall, South Africa’s exports are expected to increase by $354 million thanks to the BRICS FTA. From the above analysis it is apparent that South Africa will both lose and benefit by joining the BRICS.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Factors influencing organisational commitment amongst generation Z in South Africa
- Authors: Masia, Thapelo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Staff Retention -- South Africa , Young adults -- Employment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50294 , vital:42093
- Description: In a world of constant change, organisations face demanding pressures and challenges. Now, more than ever, organisations need to optimise resources in maximising outcomes in order to maintain a competitive advantage. In doing so, it must be acknowledged that people remain the most valuable resource in achieving organisational success. This has led to a war for talent across and between organisations. In South Africa this situation is complicated for many reasons, including the fact that there is a skills shortage crisis faced in South Africa and because many experienced Baby Boomers are now reaching retirement age. This time is also marked by the entry of the newest member of the workforce, this being Generation Z. These considerations make it important for organisations to create relevant strategies to build and retain the organisational commitment of top talent, more specifically that of Generation Z. Organisational commitment is a key organisational consideration in driving employee behaviour and attitude through influencing performance, satisfaction, organisational citizenship and motivation. The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing organisational commitment amongst Generation Z employees in the South African workplace. This is important in assisting organisations in developing and enhancing attraction and retention strategies for current and future talent.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Masia, Thapelo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Staff Retention -- South Africa , Young adults -- Employment -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50294 , vital:42093
- Description: In a world of constant change, organisations face demanding pressures and challenges. Now, more than ever, organisations need to optimise resources in maximising outcomes in order to maintain a competitive advantage. In doing so, it must be acknowledged that people remain the most valuable resource in achieving organisational success. This has led to a war for talent across and between organisations. In South Africa this situation is complicated for many reasons, including the fact that there is a skills shortage crisis faced in South Africa and because many experienced Baby Boomers are now reaching retirement age. This time is also marked by the entry of the newest member of the workforce, this being Generation Z. These considerations make it important for organisations to create relevant strategies to build and retain the organisational commitment of top talent, more specifically that of Generation Z. Organisational commitment is a key organisational consideration in driving employee behaviour and attitude through influencing performance, satisfaction, organisational citizenship and motivation. The aim of this study was to explore the factors influencing organisational commitment amongst Generation Z employees in the South African workplace. This is important in assisting organisations in developing and enhancing attraction and retention strategies for current and future talent.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Efficient market hypothesis : testing weak-form efficiency on the Johannesburg stock exchange
- Authors: Eaton, Bradley Hayes
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Efficient market theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47895 , vital:40396
- Description: Understanding financial markets is paramount in acknowledging the flow of domestic and foreign funds over time. In this study, net market capitalisation price and simple return characteristics were investigated for the period from January 2009 to December 2017. An empirical, statistical approach was used to explore the possibility that, since the 2008 financial crisis, forward-looking, aggregate market and financial-oriented equity indices have conformed to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Accordingly, monthly observations were made to ensure long-run traits were identified and scrutinised. Such revelations are important for portfolio diversification, risk, and expected return potentials with respect to South African equity markets. Based on the study, it was found that random walks were evident in both the price and return time-series as a result of significant stochastic price action, supported by evidence suggesting non-normality of price and return distributions. Unit root and stationarity modelling confirmed such traits. However, significant trending behaviours were evident in the auto-correlation figures with regards to prices, despite mean-reverting and stochastic influences. Therefore, it was concluded from the results of the study that the respective time-series were weak-form efficient. The empirical component was supplemented by a comprehensive investigation into the market determinants of financial market inefficiencies, including partial correlations, contagion effects, momentum, financial bubbles, and liquidity issues. Secondary objectives of the study included identifying the roles of security exchanges and the effect of international linkages, as a result of globalisation, on the financial markets. Increased macro-economic and systems integration has led to positive and negative connotations for business cycles. Spill-over effects into global equity markets are evident as can be seen through the co-integration of leading world exchanges, both in the developed and emerging market spheres. Fundamental to this study was the sensitivity of South African equity markets to recessionary pressures, as analysed through the efficiency of aggregated equity indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Eaton, Bradley Hayes
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Efficient market theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/47895 , vital:40396
- Description: Understanding financial markets is paramount in acknowledging the flow of domestic and foreign funds over time. In this study, net market capitalisation price and simple return characteristics were investigated for the period from January 2009 to December 2017. An empirical, statistical approach was used to explore the possibility that, since the 2008 financial crisis, forward-looking, aggregate market and financial-oriented equity indices have conformed to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Accordingly, monthly observations were made to ensure long-run traits were identified and scrutinised. Such revelations are important for portfolio diversification, risk, and expected return potentials with respect to South African equity markets. Based on the study, it was found that random walks were evident in both the price and return time-series as a result of significant stochastic price action, supported by evidence suggesting non-normality of price and return distributions. Unit root and stationarity modelling confirmed such traits. However, significant trending behaviours were evident in the auto-correlation figures with regards to prices, despite mean-reverting and stochastic influences. Therefore, it was concluded from the results of the study that the respective time-series were weak-form efficient. The empirical component was supplemented by a comprehensive investigation into the market determinants of financial market inefficiencies, including partial correlations, contagion effects, momentum, financial bubbles, and liquidity issues. Secondary objectives of the study included identifying the roles of security exchanges and the effect of international linkages, as a result of globalisation, on the financial markets. Increased macro-economic and systems integration has led to positive and negative connotations for business cycles. Spill-over effects into global equity markets are evident as can be seen through the co-integration of leading world exchanges, both in the developed and emerging market spheres. Fundamental to this study was the sensitivity of South African equity markets to recessionary pressures, as analysed through the efficiency of aggregated equity indices.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Financial inclusion and food security nexus: Evidence from Southern African Development Community (SADC)
- Authors: Machili, Tharollo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic growth, development, planning , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49886 , vital:41813
- Description: Everywhere on the African continent, governments are starting to realize the crucial role of financial inclusion in mitigating poverty and contributing to sustainable and inclusive economic development and stability. Emerging evidence indicates that financial sector deepening is essential for facilitating economic development. The 2016 SADC financial inclusion strategy asserts that inclusive economic growth has a positive impact on the needy through minimizing income inequality and increasing employment Finmark Trust (2016). Recent developments in financial services for the low-income segment, specifically, reveals how financial inclusion can strengthen the dependence of a vulnerable and excluded population (Demirgüç-Kunt, Klapper, Singer, Ansar and Hess, 2017). As such, many countries within the continent now have national financial inclusion strategies and lead core initiatives to enhance financial markets. A number of researcher’s stress that financial inclusion, especially the use of digital financial services and mobile money services, can have developmental benefits Although studies fail to concur on the direction of the effect that financial inclusion has on economic development. It is worth noting that, even studies that do not find any evidence of the relationship between financial inclusion and economic development to support this hypothesis, also emphasize the prospect of attaining better outcomes through careful consideration of local needs
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Machili, Tharollo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic growth, development, planning , Finance -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/49886 , vital:41813
- Description: Everywhere on the African continent, governments are starting to realize the crucial role of financial inclusion in mitigating poverty and contributing to sustainable and inclusive economic development and stability. Emerging evidence indicates that financial sector deepening is essential for facilitating economic development. The 2016 SADC financial inclusion strategy asserts that inclusive economic growth has a positive impact on the needy through minimizing income inequality and increasing employment Finmark Trust (2016). Recent developments in financial services for the low-income segment, specifically, reveals how financial inclusion can strengthen the dependence of a vulnerable and excluded population (Demirgüç-Kunt, Klapper, Singer, Ansar and Hess, 2017). As such, many countries within the continent now have national financial inclusion strategies and lead core initiatives to enhance financial markets. A number of researcher’s stress that financial inclusion, especially the use of digital financial services and mobile money services, can have developmental benefits Although studies fail to concur on the direction of the effect that financial inclusion has on economic development. It is worth noting that, even studies that do not find any evidence of the relationship between financial inclusion and economic development to support this hypothesis, also emphasize the prospect of attaining better outcomes through careful consideration of local needs
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Convergence effects of African GDP with the rest of the world: Analysis the African continental free trade agreement
- Matonana, Phumelela Ntombiyesibini
- Authors: Matonana, Phumelela Ntombiyesibini
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- Africa -- Statistics , Economic development -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50306 , vital:42102
- Description: This study is an investigation of the convergence hypothesis in African countries motivated by the increasing interest to measure disparities in the establishment of an economic union. The objective of this study is to provide an analysis of convergence in Africa by looking at the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) against 6 of its top trading partner groups. This study seeks to establish whether Africa and African countries who belong to the AfCFTA catchup to the growth rates of their more developed trading partners. The data sample spans from 1971- 2018. The method of analysis employed in this study is a unit root testing procedure using the linear ADF and nonlinear KSS unit root tests, the HEGY and Canova and Hansen seasonal unit root tests, the Lee and Strazicich structural break test, and the Flexible Fourier Function (FFF) and Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Function (FFFFF) unit root tests to account for smooth structural breaks. This study is, as we have reviewed, the first to investigate convergence in the newly established economic union and the first employ the above-mentioned series of unit root tests. The empirical outcomes in this study point towards weak evidence of convergence between Africa and international trade groups when considering the more robust Fourier-based unit root tests. Therefore, we conclude that Africa does not necessarily exhibit catch up effects with a majority of its trading partners.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Matonana, Phumelela Ntombiyesibini
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Gross domestic product -- Africa -- Statistics , Economic development -- Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50306 , vital:42102
- Description: This study is an investigation of the convergence hypothesis in African countries motivated by the increasing interest to measure disparities in the establishment of an economic union. The objective of this study is to provide an analysis of convergence in Africa by looking at the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) against 6 of its top trading partner groups. This study seeks to establish whether Africa and African countries who belong to the AfCFTA catchup to the growth rates of their more developed trading partners. The data sample spans from 1971- 2018. The method of analysis employed in this study is a unit root testing procedure using the linear ADF and nonlinear KSS unit root tests, the HEGY and Canova and Hansen seasonal unit root tests, the Lee and Strazicich structural break test, and the Flexible Fourier Function (FFF) and Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Function (FFFFF) unit root tests to account for smooth structural breaks. This study is, as we have reviewed, the first to investigate convergence in the newly established economic union and the first employ the above-mentioned series of unit root tests. The empirical outcomes in this study point towards weak evidence of convergence between Africa and international trade groups when considering the more robust Fourier-based unit root tests. Therefore, we conclude that Africa does not necessarily exhibit catch up effects with a majority of its trading partners.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
A comparative analysis of the effects of different Levels of Education on growth in African Economies
- Authors: Mkhosana, Nomathamsanqa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- Effect of education on , Education -- Economic Aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50393 , vital:42161
- Description: The economic growth and development of a country depend on the educational opportunities available to its citizens. Education is deemed to influence economic growth via improved labour productivity particularly through knowledge and skills accumulation by promoting technological improvement and innovation. The aim of the study was to highlight the importance of each level of education on economic growth of African countries. The objective of the study was to find which level of education (primary, secondary and tertiary) has the most significant effect on economic growth. To obtain this objective, the study using two panel cointegration methods, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method applied to data covering the period of 2000 to 2017, the study aimed at sampling 10 educated economies and 10 advanced economies in Africa, since South Africa and Kenya belong in both categories, the study a total of 18 African economies. The results of the study show discrepancies, that is, primary and secondary education being most beneficial towards more advanced economies whilst only tertiary education is beneficiary towards more educated African countries. Policy implications are provided.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mkhosana, Nomathamsanqa
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Economic development -- Effect of education on , Education -- Economic Aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/50393 , vital:42161
- Description: The economic growth and development of a country depend on the educational opportunities available to its citizens. Education is deemed to influence economic growth via improved labour productivity particularly through knowledge and skills accumulation by promoting technological improvement and innovation. The aim of the study was to highlight the importance of each level of education on economic growth of African countries. The objective of the study was to find which level of education (primary, secondary and tertiary) has the most significant effect on economic growth. To obtain this objective, the study using two panel cointegration methods, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method applied to data covering the period of 2000 to 2017, the study aimed at sampling 10 educated economies and 10 advanced economies in Africa, since South Africa and Kenya belong in both categories, the study a total of 18 African economies. The results of the study show discrepancies, that is, primary and secondary education being most beneficial towards more advanced economies whilst only tertiary education is beneficiary towards more educated African countries. Policy implications are provided.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth in South Africa (2003-2017)
- Authors: Faiers, Jarryd Brad
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Capital market -- South Africa , Economic development -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48102 , vital:40486
- Description: Using quarterly data from 2003:Q3 to 2017:Q1, this study investigates the effect of the stock and bond markets on economic growth in South Africa. The variables used in the study pertain to South Africa and include the JSE All-Share Index, real effective exchange rate, bond market growth, investment expenditure, inflation rate, government expenditure and gross domestic product. The empirical study is guided by an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach which includes unit root tests for stationarity, bounds tests for cointegration and causality tests using the long run and short run error correction models. Diagnostic tests and stability tests are performed on the various econometric models. Tests include the Jarque-Bera test, Ramsey Reset Test, Whites test, CUSUM and CUSUM square test. The findings suggest that the stock market growth and bond market growth have displayed significantly different results with regards to their effects on economic growth. Stock market growth has had a positive impact on economic growth in the long run, whilst growth and development in the bond market does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. The study provides a solid foundation for establishing the effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Faiers, Jarryd Brad
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Capital market -- South Africa , Economic development -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/48102 , vital:40486
- Description: Using quarterly data from 2003:Q3 to 2017:Q1, this study investigates the effect of the stock and bond markets on economic growth in South Africa. The variables used in the study pertain to South Africa and include the JSE All-Share Index, real effective exchange rate, bond market growth, investment expenditure, inflation rate, government expenditure and gross domestic product. The empirical study is guided by an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach which includes unit root tests for stationarity, bounds tests for cointegration and causality tests using the long run and short run error correction models. Diagnostic tests and stability tests are performed on the various econometric models. Tests include the Jarque-Bera test, Ramsey Reset Test, Whites test, CUSUM and CUSUM square test. The findings suggest that the stock market growth and bond market growth have displayed significantly different results with regards to their effects on economic growth. Stock market growth has had a positive impact on economic growth in the long run, whilst growth and development in the bond market does not have a statistically significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. The study provides a solid foundation for establishing the effects of the stock and bond market on economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
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