Interest rate liberalisation and economic growth in SADC countries
- Authors: Moyo, Clement Zibusiso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- Africa, Southern Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22791 , vital:30087
- Description: The pioneers of financial liberalisation, McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that inter-est rates determined by market forces have a positive effect on economic growth rates. Inter-est rates that are kept at low levels through the intervention of a central bank discourage sav-ings and capital accumulation, and distort the allocation of resources. Interest rate liberalisa-tion results in higher real interest rates which could have a positive effect on savings, invest-ments and economic growth (Ang & McKibbin 2007). Interest rate liberalisation also reduces capital flight and encourages capital inflows by increasing return for investors which supple-ments domestic investments. Shaw (1973) argued that interest rate liberalisation promotes financial development by encouraging savings and increasing the availability of funds for lending purposes. The study provides an empirical analysis of the channels through which interest rate liberalisation impacts on economic growth in SADC countries for the period 1990 to 2015. The study is motivated by the concerns on the impact of interest rate liberalisation on eco-nomic growth in the period after the 2008-’09 global financial crisis as well as concerns that interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. Higher interest rates resulting from interest rate liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises by encouraging risk-taking on the part of banks in an attempt to take advantage of higher returns. Authorities in most countries have reduced interest rates in an attempt to boost aggregate demand, which is expected to speed up the recovery from the crisis. However, the lowering of interest rates may result in a decrease in savings and investments, which are the main drivers of long-term economic growth. Real interest rates below equilibrium may encourage banks to take more risks in their lending practices in order to earn higher returns which may result in an increase in non-performing loans. The influence of interest rates on financial crises has thus received considerable attention since the onset of the 2008-’09 global financial crisis and this thesis contributes to the literature by determining how interest rates impact on economic growth in SADC countries and whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. The study examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation and economic growth through different channels. These include savings and investments, capital flows and finan-cial development. The study uses the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to estimate the effect of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth through the abovementioned channels. The study also examines whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. This is estimated using the logit model, due to the binary nature of the dependent variable. The results provide limited support for the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive effect on economic growth through higher savings and investments. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive outcome on capital inflows, which indicates that the prospect of earning higher returns encourages foreign investors to invest in the domestic economy. However, capital inflows do not enhance economic growth. This could be due to the low levels of human capital in SADC countries. Interest rate liberalisation boosts financial development through higher savings and invest-ments. However, financial development has a negative effect on economic growth because of the link between financial development and financial crises. The results show that interest rate liberalisation decreases the likelihood of financial crises directly, however, it increases the probability of financial crises indirectly through financial development. This suggests that the major cause of financial crises in the region is the low levels of institutional quality and lack of adequate supervisory frameworks to monitor the functioning of the financial system. Therefore, the results imply that the negative impact of interest rate liberalisation may outweigh the positive effect of higher savings and investments in SADC countries. A number of policy recommendations can be drawn from the study. Liberalisation of interest rates has a positive effect on economic growth through savings and investments. However improving the levels of institutional quality is vital for preventing financial crises. Interest rate liberalisation may not have a direct influence on financial crises, but higher levels of fi-nancial development emanating from higher interest rates increase the likelihood of financial crises. Therefore, a sound monitoring framework is necessary for the benefits of financial liberalisation to be realised. Also, investment in education, training and research and development is a necessity so as to increase levels of human capital, which in turn may allow the region to reap the benefits of capital inflows.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Moyo, Clement Zibusiso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Economic development -- Africa, Southern Developing countries -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/22791 , vital:30087
- Description: The pioneers of financial liberalisation, McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that inter-est rates determined by market forces have a positive effect on economic growth rates. Inter-est rates that are kept at low levels through the intervention of a central bank discourage sav-ings and capital accumulation, and distort the allocation of resources. Interest rate liberalisa-tion results in higher real interest rates which could have a positive effect on savings, invest-ments and economic growth (Ang & McKibbin 2007). Interest rate liberalisation also reduces capital flight and encourages capital inflows by increasing return for investors which supple-ments domestic investments. Shaw (1973) argued that interest rate liberalisation promotes financial development by encouraging savings and increasing the availability of funds for lending purposes. The study provides an empirical analysis of the channels through which interest rate liberalisation impacts on economic growth in SADC countries for the period 1990 to 2015. The study is motivated by the concerns on the impact of interest rate liberalisation on eco-nomic growth in the period after the 2008-’09 global financial crisis as well as concerns that interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. Higher interest rates resulting from interest rate liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises by encouraging risk-taking on the part of banks in an attempt to take advantage of higher returns. Authorities in most countries have reduced interest rates in an attempt to boost aggregate demand, which is expected to speed up the recovery from the crisis. However, the lowering of interest rates may result in a decrease in savings and investments, which are the main drivers of long-term economic growth. Real interest rates below equilibrium may encourage banks to take more risks in their lending practices in order to earn higher returns which may result in an increase in non-performing loans. The influence of interest rates on financial crises has thus received considerable attention since the onset of the 2008-’09 global financial crisis and this thesis contributes to the literature by determining how interest rates impact on economic growth in SADC countries and whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. The study examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation and economic growth through different channels. These include savings and investments, capital flows and finan-cial development. The study uses the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to estimate the effect of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth through the abovementioned channels. The study also examines whether interest rate liberalisation increases the likelihood of financial crises. This is estimated using the logit model, due to the binary nature of the dependent variable. The results provide limited support for the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive effect on economic growth through higher savings and investments. Interest rate liberalisation has a positive outcome on capital inflows, which indicates that the prospect of earning higher returns encourages foreign investors to invest in the domestic economy. However, capital inflows do not enhance economic growth. This could be due to the low levels of human capital in SADC countries. Interest rate liberalisation boosts financial development through higher savings and invest-ments. However, financial development has a negative effect on economic growth because of the link between financial development and financial crises. The results show that interest rate liberalisation decreases the likelihood of financial crises directly, however, it increases the probability of financial crises indirectly through financial development. This suggests that the major cause of financial crises in the region is the low levels of institutional quality and lack of adequate supervisory frameworks to monitor the functioning of the financial system. Therefore, the results imply that the negative impact of interest rate liberalisation may outweigh the positive effect of higher savings and investments in SADC countries. A number of policy recommendations can be drawn from the study. Liberalisation of interest rates has a positive effect on economic growth through savings and investments. However improving the levels of institutional quality is vital for preventing financial crises. Interest rate liberalisation may not have a direct influence on financial crises, but higher levels of fi-nancial development emanating from higher interest rates increase the likelihood of financial crises. Therefore, a sound monitoring framework is necessary for the benefits of financial liberalisation to be realised. Also, investment in education, training and research and development is a necessity so as to increase levels of human capital, which in turn may allow the region to reap the benefits of capital inflows.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
An analysis of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) preventive diplomacy in the kingdom of Lesotho: a case study
- Authors: Bukae, Nkosi Makhonya
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes , Diplomacy , Conflict management -- Lesotho , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government , Lesotho -- Politics and government
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: vital:8196 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1008296 , Southern African Development Community , Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes , Diplomacy , Conflict management -- Lesotho , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government , Lesotho -- Politics and government
- Description: The focus of this study is the Southern African Development Community (SADC) preventive diplomacy interventions in Lesotho in 1994, 1998 and 2007. The core aim of the study was to evaluate the efficacy of the SADC security mechanism (the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security (OPDS) in conflict prevention, management and resolution on the basis of the Lesotho experience. Data for this qualitative case study was collected through interviews and document analysis. The twenty four participants for the study were drawn from the SADC OPDS unit, Lesotho political parties, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), Academics from the University of Botswana (UB) and the National University of Lesotho (NUL), retired Botswana Defence officers who participated in the Lesotho missions and office of the post-2007election dispute dialogue facilitator in Lesotho. Documents on the SADC Treaties, Protocols, Communiqués and interventions in other set ups were used to highlight its operational policies, mandate, structures, successes and challenges. Lesotho was chosen as a case study because SADC employed both non-coercive (SADC Troika and Eminent Person mediation, 1994 and 2007 respectively) and coercive measures (the 1998 military intervention). The findings of the study revealed that SADC as a regional body had its own successes and challenges. Different perceptions on the SADC interventions in Lesotho emerged mainly between the participants from the ruling party and the opposition parties. While the former commended SADC for successfully mitigating the calamitous effects of 1994, 1998 and 2007 post-electoral violence, the opposition parties viewed the regional organisations as engaged in illegal interference in the domestic affairs of the country to defend the incumbent governing party. It also emerged from the study that the SADC security mechanism has numerous structural and operational flaws. There were several unanswered questions revolving around the legality and mandate of some of the missions. For instance, no concrete evidence emerged as to whether the 1998 military intervention was authorised by the SADC. The study also revealed that SADC has learnt valuable lessons from the Lesotho missions. Some of the reforms which the SADC has introduced in the OPDS such as the establishment of the SADC Stand by Force, Early Warning structures, the Mediation Unit, and a panel of expert mediators emanated mainly from the Lesotho experiences. The study recommends that SADC needs to harmonise the efforts of its OPDS structures such as the Mediation Unit; the Troika; the Inter-State Defence and Security Committee (ISDSC); the Inter-State Politics and Diplomacy Committee (ISPDC) and the Summit of Heads of States and Governments for rapid, coherent and well coordinated interventions in future regional preventive missions. It is also recommended that SADC should focus on identifying and mitigating underlying causal factors such as underdevelopment; poverty; deprivation of freedoms, marginalisation and other forms of social stratifications and oppression in its preventive diplomacy missions if durable peace is to be achieved in Lesotho and any other future cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Bukae, Nkosi Makhonya
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Southern African Development Community , Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes , Diplomacy , Conflict management -- Lesotho , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government , Lesotho -- Politics and government
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , DPhil
- Identifier: vital:8196 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1008296 , Southern African Development Community , Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes , Diplomacy , Conflict management -- Lesotho , Africa, Southern -- Politics and government , Lesotho -- Politics and government
- Description: The focus of this study is the Southern African Development Community (SADC) preventive diplomacy interventions in Lesotho in 1994, 1998 and 2007. The core aim of the study was to evaluate the efficacy of the SADC security mechanism (the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security (OPDS) in conflict prevention, management and resolution on the basis of the Lesotho experience. Data for this qualitative case study was collected through interviews and document analysis. The twenty four participants for the study were drawn from the SADC OPDS unit, Lesotho political parties, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), Academics from the University of Botswana (UB) and the National University of Lesotho (NUL), retired Botswana Defence officers who participated in the Lesotho missions and office of the post-2007election dispute dialogue facilitator in Lesotho. Documents on the SADC Treaties, Protocols, Communiqués and interventions in other set ups were used to highlight its operational policies, mandate, structures, successes and challenges. Lesotho was chosen as a case study because SADC employed both non-coercive (SADC Troika and Eminent Person mediation, 1994 and 2007 respectively) and coercive measures (the 1998 military intervention). The findings of the study revealed that SADC as a regional body had its own successes and challenges. Different perceptions on the SADC interventions in Lesotho emerged mainly between the participants from the ruling party and the opposition parties. While the former commended SADC for successfully mitigating the calamitous effects of 1994, 1998 and 2007 post-electoral violence, the opposition parties viewed the regional organisations as engaged in illegal interference in the domestic affairs of the country to defend the incumbent governing party. It also emerged from the study that the SADC security mechanism has numerous structural and operational flaws. There were several unanswered questions revolving around the legality and mandate of some of the missions. For instance, no concrete evidence emerged as to whether the 1998 military intervention was authorised by the SADC. The study also revealed that SADC has learnt valuable lessons from the Lesotho missions. Some of the reforms which the SADC has introduced in the OPDS such as the establishment of the SADC Stand by Force, Early Warning structures, the Mediation Unit, and a panel of expert mediators emanated mainly from the Lesotho experiences. The study recommends that SADC needs to harmonise the efforts of its OPDS structures such as the Mediation Unit; the Troika; the Inter-State Defence and Security Committee (ISDSC); the Inter-State Politics and Diplomacy Committee (ISPDC) and the Summit of Heads of States and Governments for rapid, coherent and well coordinated interventions in future regional preventive missions. It is also recommended that SADC should focus on identifying and mitigating underlying causal factors such as underdevelopment; poverty; deprivation of freedoms, marginalisation and other forms of social stratifications and oppression in its preventive diplomacy missions if durable peace is to be achieved in Lesotho and any other future cases.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
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