Bayesian logistic regression models for credit scoring
- Authors: Webster, Gregg
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bayesian statistical decision theory Credit scoring systems Regression analysis Logistic regression analysis Monte Carlo method Markov processes Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5574 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005538
- Description: The Bayesian approach to logistic regression modelling for credit scoring is useful when there are data quantity issues. Data quantity issues might occur when a bank is opening in a new location or there is change in the scoring procedure. Making use of prior information (available from the coefficients estimated on other data sets, or expert knowledge about the coefficients) a Bayesian approach is proposed to improve the credit scoring models. To achieve this, a data set is split into two sets, “old” data and “new” data. Priors are obtained from a model fitted on the “old” data. This model is assumed to be a scoring model used by a financial institution in the current location. The financial institution is then assumed to expand into a new economic location where there is limited data. The priors from the model on the “old” data are then combined in a Bayesian model with the “new” data to obtain a model which represents all the available information. The predictive performance of this Bayesian model is compared to a model which does not make use of any prior information. It is found that the use of relevant prior information improves the predictive performance when the size of the “new” data is small. As the size of the “new” data increases, the importance of including prior information decreases
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Webster, Gregg
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Bayesian statistical decision theory Credit scoring systems Regression analysis Logistic regression analysis Monte Carlo method Markov processes Financial institutions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5574 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005538
- Description: The Bayesian approach to logistic regression modelling for credit scoring is useful when there are data quantity issues. Data quantity issues might occur when a bank is opening in a new location or there is change in the scoring procedure. Making use of prior information (available from the coefficients estimated on other data sets, or expert knowledge about the coefficients) a Bayesian approach is proposed to improve the credit scoring models. To achieve this, a data set is split into two sets, “old” data and “new” data. Priors are obtained from a model fitted on the “old” data. This model is assumed to be a scoring model used by a financial institution in the current location. The financial institution is then assumed to expand into a new economic location where there is limited data. The priors from the model on the “old” data are then combined in a Bayesian model with the “new” data to obtain a model which represents all the available information. The predictive performance of this Bayesian model is compared to a model which does not make use of any prior information. It is found that the use of relevant prior information improves the predictive performance when the size of the “new” data is small. As the size of the “new” data increases, the importance of including prior information decreases
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Utilizing geocaching to reduce obesity and increase tourism
- Authors: Von Solms, Woudi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Sports and tourism , Obesity
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9291 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011157 , Sports and tourism , Obesity
- Description: Tourism has social and economic benefits. Economic benefits are received through tourists visiting tourist attractions. Social benefits related to benefits tourists receive personally when visiting tourist attractions. The number of individuals that are obese are constantly increasing and leads to hazardous medical conditions. The aim of this research study was to determine the extent to which geocaching can be used to increase tourism and decrease obesity. Geocaching is similar to a treasure hunt where participant use clues and a Global Positioning System device to find a treasure that are called a cache. The cache is filled with trinkets that are exchanged by participants that find the cache. Students of the second avenue campus of the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University were used as respondents and given information on what geocaching involve. Three geocaches were hidden in The Boardwalk Casino and Entertainment World in Summerstrand, Port Elizabeth. The respondents met at The Boardwalk Casino and Entertainment World where a clue and map was provided. After finding the cache the respondents was asked to complete an anonymous questionnaire. The results were calculated and conclusions and recommendations were made. The primary research process was conducted over too short a period of time to conclude whether it can lead to a reduction in obesity. However geocaching experience by respondents did show that the process of geocaching involves physical exercise, which is needed for losing weight. Research also indicated that respondents would like to geocache with family and friends. Geocaching with family and friends involves support which secondary research have also proven is important to losing weight and decreasing obesity. Respondents indicated that they enjoyed geocaching and would like to geocache in their free time. The indication of enjoying geocaching, participating in geocaching during free time allows travelling for leisure purposes as to geocache travelling is necessary and the majority of geocaches is hidden at tourist attractions. The combination of travelling to tourist attractions, enjoying the experience and partaking in physical exercise with family and friends involve two of the three main aspects seen as helping to reduce obesity: enjoyable physical activity and support from family and friends. The conclusion is therefore that geocaching can be utilised to increase tourism and reduce obesity.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Von Solms, Woudi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Sports and tourism , Obesity
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9291 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1011157 , Sports and tourism , Obesity
- Description: Tourism has social and economic benefits. Economic benefits are received through tourists visiting tourist attractions. Social benefits related to benefits tourists receive personally when visiting tourist attractions. The number of individuals that are obese are constantly increasing and leads to hazardous medical conditions. The aim of this research study was to determine the extent to which geocaching can be used to increase tourism and decrease obesity. Geocaching is similar to a treasure hunt where participant use clues and a Global Positioning System device to find a treasure that are called a cache. The cache is filled with trinkets that are exchanged by participants that find the cache. Students of the second avenue campus of the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University were used as respondents and given information on what geocaching involve. Three geocaches were hidden in The Boardwalk Casino and Entertainment World in Summerstrand, Port Elizabeth. The respondents met at The Boardwalk Casino and Entertainment World where a clue and map was provided. After finding the cache the respondents was asked to complete an anonymous questionnaire. The results were calculated and conclusions and recommendations were made. The primary research process was conducted over too short a period of time to conclude whether it can lead to a reduction in obesity. However geocaching experience by respondents did show that the process of geocaching involves physical exercise, which is needed for losing weight. Research also indicated that respondents would like to geocache with family and friends. Geocaching with family and friends involves support which secondary research have also proven is important to losing weight and decreasing obesity. Respondents indicated that they enjoyed geocaching and would like to geocache in their free time. The indication of enjoying geocaching, participating in geocaching during free time allows travelling for leisure purposes as to geocache travelling is necessary and the majority of geocaches is hidden at tourist attractions. The combination of travelling to tourist attractions, enjoying the experience and partaking in physical exercise with family and friends involve two of the three main aspects seen as helping to reduce obesity: enjoyable physical activity and support from family and friends. The conclusion is therefore that geocaching can be utilised to increase tourism and reduce obesity.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The contribution made by Mr Justice EF Watermeyer to South African tax jurisprudence
- Authors: Thackwell, Robert Colin
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:881 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001635
- Description: The objective of this thesis is to highlight the colossal contributions made by the late Justice Watermeyer to South African tax jurisprudence. His contributions are viewed from a practical application point of view as well as from a statutory interpretative perspective. The style and technique with which he delivered his judgments are also considered to be a contribution in their own right. The core of this thesis is the analysis of seven of Justice Watermeyer‟s most influential judgments. The development and application of the principle or principles developed in each of these seven judgments is then traced chronologically through case law up until recent judgments. It is most notable that each and every phrase contained in section 11(a) of the Income Tax Act has been interpreted by Justice Watermeyer. These interpretations are still viewed as correct statements of the applicable law and will continue to be referred to on a regular basis given the fact that section 11(a) is one of the most widely contested provisions in the Income Tax Act. Several references to his approach to statutory interpretation are made through the course of the case analyses. Whilst significant evidence of a purposive oriented approach to interpretation appears in some judgments, such evidence is lacking in others. An absolute or conclusive submission in terms of his approach to statutory interpretation is not sufficiently supported. His style of judgment is also referred to and commented on, with particular focus placed on his use of illustrative examples. The contribution to South African tax law by Justice Watermeyer is found to be nothing short of enormous. He was and continues to be influential with respect to section 11(a),the definition of gross income in section 1, common law principles of tax avoidance as well as the interpretation of statutory laws of tax avoidance. It is anticipated that some of his interpretations with respect to statutory rules of tax avoidance will be referred to when the relatively new anti-avoidance provisions become the subject of litigation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Thackwell, Robert Colin
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:881 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001635
- Description: The objective of this thesis is to highlight the colossal contributions made by the late Justice Watermeyer to South African tax jurisprudence. His contributions are viewed from a practical application point of view as well as from a statutory interpretative perspective. The style and technique with which he delivered his judgments are also considered to be a contribution in their own right. The core of this thesis is the analysis of seven of Justice Watermeyer‟s most influential judgments. The development and application of the principle or principles developed in each of these seven judgments is then traced chronologically through case law up until recent judgments. It is most notable that each and every phrase contained in section 11(a) of the Income Tax Act has been interpreted by Justice Watermeyer. These interpretations are still viewed as correct statements of the applicable law and will continue to be referred to on a regular basis given the fact that section 11(a) is one of the most widely contested provisions in the Income Tax Act. Several references to his approach to statutory interpretation are made through the course of the case analyses. Whilst significant evidence of a purposive oriented approach to interpretation appears in some judgments, such evidence is lacking in others. An absolute or conclusive submission in terms of his approach to statutory interpretation is not sufficiently supported. His style of judgment is also referred to and commented on, with particular focus placed on his use of illustrative examples. The contribution to South African tax law by Justice Watermeyer is found to be nothing short of enormous. He was and continues to be influential with respect to section 11(a),the definition of gross income in section 1, common law principles of tax avoidance as well as the interpretation of statutory laws of tax avoidance. It is anticipated that some of his interpretations with respect to statutory rules of tax avoidance will be referred to when the relatively new anti-avoidance provisions become the subject of litigation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
A forecasting model for photovoltaic module energy production
- Authors: Swanepoel, Paul
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Photovoltaic power systems -- Forecasting
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:10563 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1420 , Photovoltaic power systems -- Forecasting
- Description: Energy is of concern for governments and economies all over the world. As conventional methods of energy production are facing the prospect of depleting fossil fuel reserves, economies are facing energy risks. With this tension, various threats arise in terms of energy supply security. A shift from intensive fossil fuel consumption to alternative energy consumption combined with the calculated use of fossil fuels needs to be implemented. Using the energy radiated from the sun and converted to electricity through photovoltaic energy conversion is one of the alternative and renewable sources to address the limited fossil fuel dilemma. South Africa receives an abundance of sunlight irradiance, but limited knowledge of the implementation and possible energy yield of photovoltaic energy production in South Africa is available. Photovoltaic energy yield knowledge is vital in applications for farms, rural areas and remote transmitting devices where the construction of electricity grids are not cost effective. In this study various meteorological and energy parameters about photovoltaics were captured in Port Elizabeth (South Africa) and analyzed, with data being recorded every few seconds. A model for mean daily photovoltaic power output was developed and the relationships between the independent variables analyzed. A model was developed that can forecast mean daily photovoltaic power output using only temperature derived variables and time. The mean daily photovoltaic power model can then easily be used to forecast daily photovoltaic energy output using the number of sunlight seconds in a given day.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Swanepoel, Paul
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Photovoltaic power systems -- Forecasting
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:10563 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1420 , Photovoltaic power systems -- Forecasting
- Description: Energy is of concern for governments and economies all over the world. As conventional methods of energy production are facing the prospect of depleting fossil fuel reserves, economies are facing energy risks. With this tension, various threats arise in terms of energy supply security. A shift from intensive fossil fuel consumption to alternative energy consumption combined with the calculated use of fossil fuels needs to be implemented. Using the energy radiated from the sun and converted to electricity through photovoltaic energy conversion is one of the alternative and renewable sources to address the limited fossil fuel dilemma. South Africa receives an abundance of sunlight irradiance, but limited knowledge of the implementation and possible energy yield of photovoltaic energy production in South Africa is available. Photovoltaic energy yield knowledge is vital in applications for farms, rural areas and remote transmitting devices where the construction of electricity grids are not cost effective. In this study various meteorological and energy parameters about photovoltaics were captured in Port Elizabeth (South Africa) and analyzed, with data being recorded every few seconds. A model for mean daily photovoltaic power output was developed and the relationships between the independent variables analyzed. A model was developed that can forecast mean daily photovoltaic power output using only temperature derived variables and time. The mean daily photovoltaic power model can then easily be used to forecast daily photovoltaic energy output using the number of sunlight seconds in a given day.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
An investigation into international transfer pricing guidelines and the anomalies arising from business restructurings by multi-national enterprises
- Authors: Stelloh, Marcus Matthias
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:879 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001633
- Description: The number of multinational enterprises has increased substantially. In part due to the integration of national economies (the European Union), improvements in communication and technology and the opportunity to reduce costs as a result of globalisation. Transfer pricing and especially business restructuring within multinationals is a fairly new concept.Professional legal and audit firms have different views on how to approach business restructurings. This research analyses important transfer pricing aspects and the anomalies that arise through business restructurings. The research method used in this research paper is primarily qualitative, comprising the analysis of various documentary sources of data. Relevant South African and international case law, tax legislation, the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations, the Transfer Pricing Aspects of Business Restructurings Discussion Draft and other reports were consulted and analysed. Further the views of recognised legal and tax experts that have been published in technical journals and text books were also considered and examined. A hypothetical example of a business restructuring transaction was constructed in order to illustrate practical issues and different approaches to solving them. The research has argued that the arm’s length principle, which forms the bases of transfer pricing regulation, is not an exact science but theoretically it is the most suitable measure.It may not be able to incorporate all variables, such as the cost savings through synergies of multinational enterprises, but it promotes international trade and investment by ensuring that transactions are based on fair prices. Business restructurings create anomalies in applying the arm’s length principle but these anomalies can be dealt with within the regulatory structure. The business restructuring approach recommended is realistic and pragmatic, but more clarity may be needed in certain circumstances. The research has also discussed the avoidance of transfer pricing audits, including having appropriate transfer pricing policies and documentation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Stelloh, Marcus Matthias
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:879 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001633
- Description: The number of multinational enterprises has increased substantially. In part due to the integration of national economies (the European Union), improvements in communication and technology and the opportunity to reduce costs as a result of globalisation. Transfer pricing and especially business restructuring within multinationals is a fairly new concept.Professional legal and audit firms have different views on how to approach business restructurings. This research analyses important transfer pricing aspects and the anomalies that arise through business restructurings. The research method used in this research paper is primarily qualitative, comprising the analysis of various documentary sources of data. Relevant South African and international case law, tax legislation, the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations, the Transfer Pricing Aspects of Business Restructurings Discussion Draft and other reports were consulted and analysed. Further the views of recognised legal and tax experts that have been published in technical journals and text books were also considered and examined. A hypothetical example of a business restructuring transaction was constructed in order to illustrate practical issues and different approaches to solving them. The research has argued that the arm’s length principle, which forms the bases of transfer pricing regulation, is not an exact science but theoretically it is the most suitable measure.It may not be able to incorporate all variables, such as the cost savings through synergies of multinational enterprises, but it promotes international trade and investment by ensuring that transactions are based on fair prices. Business restructurings create anomalies in applying the arm’s length principle but these anomalies can be dealt with within the regulatory structure. The business restructuring approach recommended is realistic and pragmatic, but more clarity may be needed in certain circumstances. The research has also discussed the avoidance of transfer pricing audits, including having appropriate transfer pricing policies and documentation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Financial system development and economic growth in selected African countries: evidence from a panel cointegration analysis
- Authors: Starkey, Randall Ashley
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Africa Economic development -- Developing countries Banks and banking -- Africa Banks and banking -- Developing countries Stock exchanges -- Africa Stock exchanges -- Developing countries Econometric models Economic policy -- Africa Economic policy -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:979 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002713
- Description: Financial systems (i.e. banking systems and stock markets) can influence economic growth by performing the five key financial functions, namely: mobilising savings, allocating capital, easing of exchange, monitoring and exerting corporate governance, as well as ameliorating risk. The level of development of the financial system is a key determinant of how effectively and efficiently these functions are performed. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between financial system development and economic growth for a panel of seven African countries (namely: Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia) covering the period 1988 to 2008. While numerous empirical studies have researched this topic, none of the previous African empirical literature have investigated thjs by using three groups of financial development measures (i.e. overall financial development, banking system development and stock market development measures) as well as employing panel cointegration analyses. The investigation of the long-run finance-growth relationship is conducted using two methods; the Pedroni panel cointegration approach and the Kao panel cointegration technique. The Pedroni panel cointegracion approach is more often applied in empirical research as it has less restrictive deterministic trend assumptions, while the Kao panel cointegration technique is employed in this study for comparison purposes. Furthermore, the short-run linkages bet\veen financial development and economic growth are analysed using the Holtz-Eakin d of (1989) panel Granger causality test. The results of the Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are long-run relationships between overall financial development (measured by LOFD and OFD2) and economic growth, banking system development (measured by LPSC) and economic growth, as well as stock marker development (measured by LMCP and LVLT) and economic growth. In contrast, the Kao test fails to find any cointegration between finance and growth. However, on the balance, findings largely support a conclusion of cointegration between financial development and economic growth since the Pedroni approach is more appropriate for examining cointegration in heterogeneous panels. Estimates of these long-run cointegrating relationships show that all five financial development measures have the expected positive linkages with growth. However, only four of the five financial development measures were found to have significant long-run linkages with growth, as the relationship between LOFD and growth was not found to be significant in the long-run. The panel Granger causality results show that economic growth Granger causes banking system development in the short-run (i.e. there is demand-following finance), irrespective of the measure of banking development used. While there is bi-directional, reciprocal causality between economic growth and both of the measures of overall financial development and one measure of srock market development (i.e. LVLT). Thus, pulicy makers should focus on formulating policy which promotes faster paced economic growth so as to stimulate financial development, while at the same time encourage policy that promotes the balanced expansion of the banking systems and srock markets in ordet to augment economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Starkey, Randall Ashley
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Africa Economic development -- Developing countries Banks and banking -- Africa Banks and banking -- Developing countries Stock exchanges -- Africa Stock exchanges -- Developing countries Econometric models Economic policy -- Africa Economic policy -- Developing countries
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:979 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002713
- Description: Financial systems (i.e. banking systems and stock markets) can influence economic growth by performing the five key financial functions, namely: mobilising savings, allocating capital, easing of exchange, monitoring and exerting corporate governance, as well as ameliorating risk. The level of development of the financial system is a key determinant of how effectively and efficiently these functions are performed. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between financial system development and economic growth for a panel of seven African countries (namely: Egypt, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia) covering the period 1988 to 2008. While numerous empirical studies have researched this topic, none of the previous African empirical literature have investigated thjs by using three groups of financial development measures (i.e. overall financial development, banking system development and stock market development measures) as well as employing panel cointegration analyses. The investigation of the long-run finance-growth relationship is conducted using two methods; the Pedroni panel cointegration approach and the Kao panel cointegration technique. The Pedroni panel cointegracion approach is more often applied in empirical research as it has less restrictive deterministic trend assumptions, while the Kao panel cointegration technique is employed in this study for comparison purposes. Furthermore, the short-run linkages bet\veen financial development and economic growth are analysed using the Holtz-Eakin d of (1989) panel Granger causality test. The results of the Pedroni cointegration tests show that there are long-run relationships between overall financial development (measured by LOFD and OFD2) and economic growth, banking system development (measured by LPSC) and economic growth, as well as stock marker development (measured by LMCP and LVLT) and economic growth. In contrast, the Kao test fails to find any cointegration between finance and growth. However, on the balance, findings largely support a conclusion of cointegration between financial development and economic growth since the Pedroni approach is more appropriate for examining cointegration in heterogeneous panels. Estimates of these long-run cointegrating relationships show that all five financial development measures have the expected positive linkages with growth. However, only four of the five financial development measures were found to have significant long-run linkages with growth, as the relationship between LOFD and growth was not found to be significant in the long-run. The panel Granger causality results show that economic growth Granger causes banking system development in the short-run (i.e. there is demand-following finance), irrespective of the measure of banking development used. While there is bi-directional, reciprocal causality between economic growth and both of the measures of overall financial development and one measure of srock market development (i.e. LVLT). Thus, pulicy makers should focus on formulating policy which promotes faster paced economic growth so as to stimulate financial development, while at the same time encourage policy that promotes the balanced expansion of the banking systems and srock markets in ordet to augment economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Perceptions of Chinese students on the quality of the academic programmes and services offered at Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
- Authors: Song, Junli
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University -- Curricula -- Chinese students , Chinese students -- Education (Higher) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Strategic planning , Service industries -- Marketing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9359 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1368 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University -- Curricula -- Chinese students , Chinese students -- Education (Higher) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Strategic planning , Service industries -- Marketing
- Description: With English as the medium of academic exchange, Chinese students are the largest single overseas student group in the English speaking countries (2010). Relative to the outbound education market of other countries, the Chinese education market is large, and it is currently receiving much attention globally. Not only is South Africa one of countries where English is spoken, it has relatively speaking, low study fees and easily-accessed visas compared with countries in Europe and the United States. Therefore, South African universities have a virtually unlimited potential for receiving Chinese students. For South African education providers, particularly NMMU as the host university for the research in question, in order to render the expected education quality and to cater for the Chinese education market effectively, it is of utmost importance that the institutions have a clear understanding of Chinese students’ expectations as well as their actual academic experiences (in the broadest context) when studying at this university. The above is closely linked to the expected educational quality, the actual educational delivery as experienced by Chinese students, as well as the levels of satisfaction they experience as students at NMMU. The purpose of this research project is twofold. Firstly, it aims to construct a theoretical model showing the variables and relationships pertaining to expected and actual educational delivery as experienced by Chinese students. Having assessed the perceptions of the respondents based on the findings, another purpose is to design appropriate educational marketing strategies suitable to address the academic needs and expectations of Chinese students in the broadest context. By designing appropriate education strategies, the potential to develop the Chinese education market in South Africa will be enhanced. Given the purpose and nature of the research in question, methodological triangulation strategies were used. A Likert seven-point scale research instrument was developed and administered. Due to the limited number of respondents (n=61), the Likert scale instrument was further subjected to enrich the data by means of face-to-face interviews with 61 Chinese students (respondents), who shared their perceptions on the expectations and actual experiences of NMMU academic programme quality encounters. By following the methodological triangulation strategies, the validity of the findings is enhanced. The phenomenological dimension of the research was conducted according to guidelines as documented in secondary sources. The findings of the matched pair t-tests indicated that significant statistical differences do exist between the ‘expectations’ and ‘actual experiences’ of Chinese students’ perceived academic programme quality. Sufficient evidence is available at the 95 percent level of significance to support the hypothesis H1, namely: “There are differences between Chinese students’ ‘expected’ and ‘perceived’ academic programme quality (actual experience) of NMMU”. Besides the matched pair t-tests, further statistical analyses were performed by means of calculating Cohen’s ‘d’ values and relative percentage ratings to assess the magnitude of the “gap” between expectations and actual experiences of Chinese students studying at NMMU. The findings revealed that the Chinese students were not completely satisfied with their actual experiences when studying at NMMU. The above statistical findings were endorsed by the qualitative findings. Three sets of conclusions and recommendations were identified for this research. Firstly, conclusions emanating from secondary sources on service quality and students’ satisfaction literature were provided, such that students satisfaction is seen more as a psychological state which reveals an overall feeling of the students’ purchase and consumption experience. Secondly, the conclusions linked to the empirical findings revealed significant statistical differences between the expectations and perceptions (actual experiences) of Chinese students’ perceived academic programme quality. Finally, recommendations on relevant NMMU educational marketing objectives/ strategies can be grouped into four domains: - To build a customer-led education business which adheres to the principles of true marketing orientation with the focus on Chinese students. To achieve this objective a high level of understanding of Chinese students’ specific needs and wants when studying at NMMU is of utmost importance. The effective marketing positioning of NMMU can render leverage benefits to themselves and their clientele. - Findings from the biographic data analyses are significant to the positioning strategies and market segmentation strategies of NMMU. - The decision on a proper positioning strategy entails the choice of target market segments, which will determine where and how the education business competes and its choice of differential advantages. - The South African education providers should have appropriate educational brands to entice the Chinese students’ support.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Song, Junli
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University -- Curricula -- Chinese students , Chinese students -- Education (Higher) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Strategic planning , Service industries -- Marketing
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9359 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1368 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University -- Curricula -- Chinese students , Chinese students -- Education (Higher) -- South Africa -- Port Elizabeth , Strategic planning , Service industries -- Marketing
- Description: With English as the medium of academic exchange, Chinese students are the largest single overseas student group in the English speaking countries (2010). Relative to the outbound education market of other countries, the Chinese education market is large, and it is currently receiving much attention globally. Not only is South Africa one of countries where English is spoken, it has relatively speaking, low study fees and easily-accessed visas compared with countries in Europe and the United States. Therefore, South African universities have a virtually unlimited potential for receiving Chinese students. For South African education providers, particularly NMMU as the host university for the research in question, in order to render the expected education quality and to cater for the Chinese education market effectively, it is of utmost importance that the institutions have a clear understanding of Chinese students’ expectations as well as their actual academic experiences (in the broadest context) when studying at this university. The above is closely linked to the expected educational quality, the actual educational delivery as experienced by Chinese students, as well as the levels of satisfaction they experience as students at NMMU. The purpose of this research project is twofold. Firstly, it aims to construct a theoretical model showing the variables and relationships pertaining to expected and actual educational delivery as experienced by Chinese students. Having assessed the perceptions of the respondents based on the findings, another purpose is to design appropriate educational marketing strategies suitable to address the academic needs and expectations of Chinese students in the broadest context. By designing appropriate education strategies, the potential to develop the Chinese education market in South Africa will be enhanced. Given the purpose and nature of the research in question, methodological triangulation strategies were used. A Likert seven-point scale research instrument was developed and administered. Due to the limited number of respondents (n=61), the Likert scale instrument was further subjected to enrich the data by means of face-to-face interviews with 61 Chinese students (respondents), who shared their perceptions on the expectations and actual experiences of NMMU academic programme quality encounters. By following the methodological triangulation strategies, the validity of the findings is enhanced. The phenomenological dimension of the research was conducted according to guidelines as documented in secondary sources. The findings of the matched pair t-tests indicated that significant statistical differences do exist between the ‘expectations’ and ‘actual experiences’ of Chinese students’ perceived academic programme quality. Sufficient evidence is available at the 95 percent level of significance to support the hypothesis H1, namely: “There are differences between Chinese students’ ‘expected’ and ‘perceived’ academic programme quality (actual experience) of NMMU”. Besides the matched pair t-tests, further statistical analyses were performed by means of calculating Cohen’s ‘d’ values and relative percentage ratings to assess the magnitude of the “gap” between expectations and actual experiences of Chinese students studying at NMMU. The findings revealed that the Chinese students were not completely satisfied with their actual experiences when studying at NMMU. The above statistical findings were endorsed by the qualitative findings. Three sets of conclusions and recommendations were identified for this research. Firstly, conclusions emanating from secondary sources on service quality and students’ satisfaction literature were provided, such that students satisfaction is seen more as a psychological state which reveals an overall feeling of the students’ purchase and consumption experience. Secondly, the conclusions linked to the empirical findings revealed significant statistical differences between the expectations and perceptions (actual experiences) of Chinese students’ perceived academic programme quality. Finally, recommendations on relevant NMMU educational marketing objectives/ strategies can be grouped into four domains: - To build a customer-led education business which adheres to the principles of true marketing orientation with the focus on Chinese students. To achieve this objective a high level of understanding of Chinese students’ specific needs and wants when studying at NMMU is of utmost importance. The effective marketing positioning of NMMU can render leverage benefits to themselves and their clientele. - Findings from the biographic data analyses are significant to the positioning strategies and market segmentation strategies of NMMU. - The decision on a proper positioning strategy entails the choice of target market segments, which will determine where and how the education business competes and its choice of differential advantages. - The South African education providers should have appropriate educational brands to entice the Chinese students’ support.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Angel networks as a business start-up financing option in South Africa
- Authors: Sibanda, Zenzo
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Angels (Investors) -- South Africa Small business -- Finance -- South Africa New business enterprises -- Finance -- South Africa Venture capital -- South Africa Microfinance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1164 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002780
- Description: The following study is about business angels financing small business start-ups. It explores the aspect of starting up an entrepreneurial venture in which the entrepreneur seeks to secure start-up finance from lenders, raising the various issues that are known to characterise this engagement between the entrepreneur and the lender. Using the phenomenological paradigm, the study seeks to determine the awareness of small scale financing by entrepreneurs in South Africa, to determine the most commonly used source of start-up business funding in South Africa, to assess the extent to which business angel financing could be used to finance businesses in South Africa and to determine the factors impacting the use of business angel financing in South Africa. From these objectives, the study will also seek to determine the extent to which business angel networks could facilitate the financing of business start-ups. Small businesses invariably come up in different policy spheres as the main avenues to social and economic construction across national and regional lines. The importance of a successful business start up to a growing economy should not be underestimated. In line with this is the particular factor of gaining access to start up capital, which continues to emerge as a leading contributor to the success or failure of business start ups. Studies continue to verify that the most common challenge faced by most emerging entrepreneurs is start-up capital, either in the lack of this capital, the unfavourable conditions surrounding its availability, the lack of assets to serve as collateral for its use or the ambiguous flow of crucial information between lenders and providers of finance in the funding relationship (Abor and Biekpe, 2006: 69;Hernandez-Trillo, Pagan and Paxton, 2005: 435, ISPESE, 2005: 7, CDE, 2004: 5; Musengi 2003: 11). Roger Sorheim (2005: 179) refers to business angels as private individuals who offer risk capital to unlisted companies that are struggling to obtain start up capital to finance their business ideas. Business angels are further defined as high net-worth bearers of substantial private capital who predominantly invest in the early stage of high risk high potential return business ventures with a positive further growth potential. Business angel finance is typically a ‘once-off’ early stage form of small firm financing compared to the more frequent later stage venture capitalist funding. Studies show that business angels represent an underutilised wealth creation mechanism when it comes to small firm start-ups as most business angels contribute expertise in addition to finance to the start-ups they get involved in. This brings valuable business insight to the commercialisation of a good business idea. The business angel network exposes a range of potentially viable business prospects to willing investors by facilitating the flow of information about entrepreneurs and their businesses, thereby eliminating ambiguity, information asymmetry and transaction costs (Aernoudt and Erikson, 2002: 178; Van Osnabrugge and Robinson, 2000:374; Macht, 2006:1; Ehlrich, De Noble, Moore and Weaver, 1994:70; Sorheim, 2005:179). To achieve a holistic approach to a phenomenon which appears to be relatively new in South African business circles, the study will follow a qualitative approach in which two categories of populations will be used, one of small business operators and the other of business angels in South Africa. In the study, 20 small business operators and five business angels in Grahamstown will be approached using the convenience and snowballing sampling methods respectively. Face-to-face semi-structured interviews will be used as a data collection method and content analysis will be used as a data analysis tool (Collis and Hussey, 2003:156, Driver, Wood, Segal and Herrington, 2001:32, National Small Business Act ). There has been very limited research on business angels in the South African context, therefore the study would significantly contribute in entrepreneurship, government and small business development circles as it brings about attention to what the researcher predicts is an underutilised business start-up financing option.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Sibanda, Zenzo
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Angels (Investors) -- South Africa Small business -- Finance -- South Africa New business enterprises -- Finance -- South Africa Venture capital -- South Africa Microfinance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1164 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002780
- Description: The following study is about business angels financing small business start-ups. It explores the aspect of starting up an entrepreneurial venture in which the entrepreneur seeks to secure start-up finance from lenders, raising the various issues that are known to characterise this engagement between the entrepreneur and the lender. Using the phenomenological paradigm, the study seeks to determine the awareness of small scale financing by entrepreneurs in South Africa, to determine the most commonly used source of start-up business funding in South Africa, to assess the extent to which business angel financing could be used to finance businesses in South Africa and to determine the factors impacting the use of business angel financing in South Africa. From these objectives, the study will also seek to determine the extent to which business angel networks could facilitate the financing of business start-ups. Small businesses invariably come up in different policy spheres as the main avenues to social and economic construction across national and regional lines. The importance of a successful business start up to a growing economy should not be underestimated. In line with this is the particular factor of gaining access to start up capital, which continues to emerge as a leading contributor to the success or failure of business start ups. Studies continue to verify that the most common challenge faced by most emerging entrepreneurs is start-up capital, either in the lack of this capital, the unfavourable conditions surrounding its availability, the lack of assets to serve as collateral for its use or the ambiguous flow of crucial information between lenders and providers of finance in the funding relationship (Abor and Biekpe, 2006: 69;Hernandez-Trillo, Pagan and Paxton, 2005: 435, ISPESE, 2005: 7, CDE, 2004: 5; Musengi 2003: 11). Roger Sorheim (2005: 179) refers to business angels as private individuals who offer risk capital to unlisted companies that are struggling to obtain start up capital to finance their business ideas. Business angels are further defined as high net-worth bearers of substantial private capital who predominantly invest in the early stage of high risk high potential return business ventures with a positive further growth potential. Business angel finance is typically a ‘once-off’ early stage form of small firm financing compared to the more frequent later stage venture capitalist funding. Studies show that business angels represent an underutilised wealth creation mechanism when it comes to small firm start-ups as most business angels contribute expertise in addition to finance to the start-ups they get involved in. This brings valuable business insight to the commercialisation of a good business idea. The business angel network exposes a range of potentially viable business prospects to willing investors by facilitating the flow of information about entrepreneurs and their businesses, thereby eliminating ambiguity, information asymmetry and transaction costs (Aernoudt and Erikson, 2002: 178; Van Osnabrugge and Robinson, 2000:374; Macht, 2006:1; Ehlrich, De Noble, Moore and Weaver, 1994:70; Sorheim, 2005:179). To achieve a holistic approach to a phenomenon which appears to be relatively new in South African business circles, the study will follow a qualitative approach in which two categories of populations will be used, one of small business operators and the other of business angels in South Africa. In the study, 20 small business operators and five business angels in Grahamstown will be approached using the convenience and snowballing sampling methods respectively. Face-to-face semi-structured interviews will be used as a data collection method and content analysis will be used as a data analysis tool (Collis and Hussey, 2003:156, Driver, Wood, Segal and Herrington, 2001:32, National Small Business Act ). There has been very limited research on business angels in the South African context, therefore the study would significantly contribute in entrepreneurship, government and small business development circles as it brings about attention to what the researcher predicts is an underutilised business start-up financing option.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: a comparative analysis of credit and exchange rate channels
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Sebitso, Nathaniel Maemu
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange market -- South Africa , Financial crises -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1129 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020851
- Description: This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Impact of social entrepreneur's education and business skills training on the success of non-profit organisation
- Authors: Scholtz, Laurie
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Social entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Nonprofit organizations -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9284 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1337 , Social entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Nonprofit organizations -- South Africa
- Description: The social problems that exist within South Africa cannot be ignored. The magnitude of poverty, unemployment and crime that exist are ever increasing while HIV/Aids has left 10 percent of the children within this country orphaned. Discrepancies in the access to proper healthcare and education between the private sector and the public sector is evident, mainly due to the failure of the public sector (government) to effectively implement and manage the healthcare and education systems in South Africa. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of registered non-profit organisations which can be attributed to a greater awareness of the social problems that exist, as well as the inability of the government and the public sector to address the social problems on their own. Social entrepreneurs are attempting to find innovative solutions to these problems by starting non-profit organisations and then implementing projects and programmes that will help alleviate these social problems. Social entrepreneurship is a fairly new concept, particularly within the realm of academic research. Previous studies on social entrepreneurship have highlighted the need for social entrepreneurs and have also emphasised the many challenges these social entrepreneurs face, one of which is the lack of education and business skills training. Research indicates that a non-profit organisation should be run like a small business in order to be successful, which highlights the importance for social entrepreneurs to be equipped with the appropriate business skills. The impact that a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training has on the success of a non-profit organisation is however still largely unknown. The purpose of this study was three-fold: firstly, to study the relationship between the education and business skills training of a social entrepreneur and the successful functioning of their non-profit organisations; secondly, to develop recommendations for social entrepreneurs on how to more effectively manage their non-profit organisations and guide them in what business training will benefit them as a social entrepreneur; and lastly, to add to the already existing knowledge on social entrepreneurs, particularly within a South African context. The main research methodology used to conduct the empirical investigation in this study was qualitative in nature. Elements of quantitative data collection were adopted in the instruments in order to ensure standardisation when measuring a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training, as well as the success of their respective non-profit organisation. In-depth interviews were conducted with fourteen social entrepreneurs who work in a variety of social developmental sectors within South Africa. An interview guide was developed to record the formal levels of education and business skills training received by the respondents and to discuss the impact of other types of education and business skills training on their capabilities as managers of non-profit organisations. A tool was developed to measure the success of the respective non-profit organisations and the results were compared to the social entrepreneur’s levels of education and business skills training. Global analysis was the data analysis technique adopted in this study and was used to identify common themes among the transcripts as well as possible relationships between different variables. There were two main findings with regard to the impact a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training has on the successful functioning of his/her respective non-profit organisation. Firstly, the formal types of education and business skills training of a social entrepreneur have a direct impact on the success of a nonprofit organisation. Secondly, once a social entrepreneur has completed school level education, informal types of education and business skills training play a bigger role than formal types in the effective management and success of his/her respective non-profit organisation. The findings of the empirical investigation showed that the most valuable three types of informal education and business skills training include workshops and conferences, business experience and networks. The most important recommendation for social entrepreneurs is that their school level education should be completed, in order to access further education and business skills training opportunities. The social entrepreneurs must equip themselves with certain skills and knowledge, namely: financial management, legal knowledge, human resource management, strategic management, monitoring and evaluation skills, technical skills and research skills, in order to ensure the successful functioning of their respective non-profit organization.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Scholtz, Laurie
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Social entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Nonprofit organizations -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:9284 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1337 , Social entrepreneurship -- South Africa , Nonprofit organizations -- South Africa
- Description: The social problems that exist within South Africa cannot be ignored. The magnitude of poverty, unemployment and crime that exist are ever increasing while HIV/Aids has left 10 percent of the children within this country orphaned. Discrepancies in the access to proper healthcare and education between the private sector and the public sector is evident, mainly due to the failure of the public sector (government) to effectively implement and manage the healthcare and education systems in South Africa. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of registered non-profit organisations which can be attributed to a greater awareness of the social problems that exist, as well as the inability of the government and the public sector to address the social problems on their own. Social entrepreneurs are attempting to find innovative solutions to these problems by starting non-profit organisations and then implementing projects and programmes that will help alleviate these social problems. Social entrepreneurship is a fairly new concept, particularly within the realm of academic research. Previous studies on social entrepreneurship have highlighted the need for social entrepreneurs and have also emphasised the many challenges these social entrepreneurs face, one of which is the lack of education and business skills training. Research indicates that a non-profit organisation should be run like a small business in order to be successful, which highlights the importance for social entrepreneurs to be equipped with the appropriate business skills. The impact that a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training has on the success of a non-profit organisation is however still largely unknown. The purpose of this study was three-fold: firstly, to study the relationship between the education and business skills training of a social entrepreneur and the successful functioning of their non-profit organisations; secondly, to develop recommendations for social entrepreneurs on how to more effectively manage their non-profit organisations and guide them in what business training will benefit them as a social entrepreneur; and lastly, to add to the already existing knowledge on social entrepreneurs, particularly within a South African context. The main research methodology used to conduct the empirical investigation in this study was qualitative in nature. Elements of quantitative data collection were adopted in the instruments in order to ensure standardisation when measuring a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training, as well as the success of their respective non-profit organisation. In-depth interviews were conducted with fourteen social entrepreneurs who work in a variety of social developmental sectors within South Africa. An interview guide was developed to record the formal levels of education and business skills training received by the respondents and to discuss the impact of other types of education and business skills training on their capabilities as managers of non-profit organisations. A tool was developed to measure the success of the respective non-profit organisations and the results were compared to the social entrepreneur’s levels of education and business skills training. Global analysis was the data analysis technique adopted in this study and was used to identify common themes among the transcripts as well as possible relationships between different variables. There were two main findings with regard to the impact a social entrepreneur’s education and business skills training has on the successful functioning of his/her respective non-profit organisation. Firstly, the formal types of education and business skills training of a social entrepreneur have a direct impact on the success of a nonprofit organisation. Secondly, once a social entrepreneur has completed school level education, informal types of education and business skills training play a bigger role than formal types in the effective management and success of his/her respective non-profit organisation. The findings of the empirical investigation showed that the most valuable three types of informal education and business skills training include workshops and conferences, business experience and networks. The most important recommendation for social entrepreneurs is that their school level education should be completed, in order to access further education and business skills training opportunities. The social entrepreneurs must equip themselves with certain skills and knowledge, namely: financial management, legal knowledge, human resource management, strategic management, monitoring and evaluation skills, technical skills and research skills, in order to ensure the successful functioning of their respective non-profit organization.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The impact of the new dividend withholding tax on regulated investment intermediaries
- Authors: Schafer, Carolyn
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:880 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001634
- Description: The introduction of the proposed new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on financial institutions such as Collective Investment Schemes, Linked Investment Service Providers and Long-term Insurers. The reason for this is that South African listed companies declaring local dividends will not necessarily have all the details of and know the identity of their shareholders. These financial institutions may be regarded as regulated intermediaries in terms of the new Dividends Tax legislation and therefore may have the responsibility of withholding the Dividends Tax from dividends received on behalf of their clients, who may in most cases be the beneficial owners of the underlying equity shares. The motivating factor for the research is the fact that there does not appear to be any guidance on the impact of the new Dividends Tax on financial institutions, since the Dividends Tax is new legislation. The research problem addressed in this thesis is how the systems and processes of a financial institution will be affected by the implementation of the new Dividends Tax. The research took the form of a case study designed to investigate the impact of the Dividends Tax on the financial institution at which the researcher is employed. The data required for the research was collected by means of a study of the relevant legislation enacted in connection with the topic, journal articles in financial/tax journals, as well as articles published in the media. The systems and processes presently in place, as well as the changes to these systems that will be needed to accommodate the new dividend tax were ascertained by means of in-depth interviews with relevant staff at the financial institution. In addition, the researcher also applied her personal knowledge of the business of the financial institution at which she works to the problem. As a result of the research it was determined that a Collective Investment Scheme, Linked Investment Service Provider and Long-Term Insurer will all be regarded as regulated intermediaries for the purposes of the new dividend withholding tax. This means that these financial institutions will be required to withhold Dividends Tax from dividends paid to their clients and pay this Dividends Tax so withheld to SARS. Furthermore, the findings of the research confirmed that the new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on the client services department in areas such as notifying clients, training of client service staff, handling of declaration of exemption forms received from clients, amending client statements and tax certificates (to cater for the new Dividends Tax). In addition to this, it was ascertained that significant systems development will be required by these financial institutions in order to comply with the new Dividends Tax legislation. This would include the development of data input fields to enable users to capture the relevant information required and development of the system to enable it to flag local dividends received to which the Dividends Tax applies. The system would also need to cater for Secondary Tax on Companies credits as well as foreign tax rebates. The system should also be able to calculate the amount of Dividends Tax to withhold per dividend received by a client, as well as be able to handle the payment of the Dividends Tax to SARS and the refund to clients of Dividends Tax over deducted. It is essential that systems are able to flag the correct date of payment of the dividend so that the Dividends Tax can be paid over timeously to SARS in order to avoid interest and penalties being levied. To summarise, the new Dividends Tax has a significant impact on these financial institutions in areas such as client services, administration and system development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Schafer, Carolyn
- Date: 2011
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:880 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001634
- Description: The introduction of the proposed new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on financial institutions such as Collective Investment Schemes, Linked Investment Service Providers and Long-term Insurers. The reason for this is that South African listed companies declaring local dividends will not necessarily have all the details of and know the identity of their shareholders. These financial institutions may be regarded as regulated intermediaries in terms of the new Dividends Tax legislation and therefore may have the responsibility of withholding the Dividends Tax from dividends received on behalf of their clients, who may in most cases be the beneficial owners of the underlying equity shares. The motivating factor for the research is the fact that there does not appear to be any guidance on the impact of the new Dividends Tax on financial institutions, since the Dividends Tax is new legislation. The research problem addressed in this thesis is how the systems and processes of a financial institution will be affected by the implementation of the new Dividends Tax. The research took the form of a case study designed to investigate the impact of the Dividends Tax on the financial institution at which the researcher is employed. The data required for the research was collected by means of a study of the relevant legislation enacted in connection with the topic, journal articles in financial/tax journals, as well as articles published in the media. The systems and processes presently in place, as well as the changes to these systems that will be needed to accommodate the new dividend tax were ascertained by means of in-depth interviews with relevant staff at the financial institution. In addition, the researcher also applied her personal knowledge of the business of the financial institution at which she works to the problem. As a result of the research it was determined that a Collective Investment Scheme, Linked Investment Service Provider and Long-Term Insurer will all be regarded as regulated intermediaries for the purposes of the new dividend withholding tax. This means that these financial institutions will be required to withhold Dividends Tax from dividends paid to their clients and pay this Dividends Tax so withheld to SARS. Furthermore, the findings of the research confirmed that the new Dividends Tax will have a significant impact on the client services department in areas such as notifying clients, training of client service staff, handling of declaration of exemption forms received from clients, amending client statements and tax certificates (to cater for the new Dividends Tax). In addition to this, it was ascertained that significant systems development will be required by these financial institutions in order to comply with the new Dividends Tax legislation. This would include the development of data input fields to enable users to capture the relevant information required and development of the system to enable it to flag local dividends received to which the Dividends Tax applies. The system would also need to cater for Secondary Tax on Companies credits as well as foreign tax rebates. The system should also be able to calculate the amount of Dividends Tax to withhold per dividend received by a client, as well as be able to handle the payment of the Dividends Tax to SARS and the refund to clients of Dividends Tax over deducted. It is essential that systems are able to flag the correct date of payment of the dividend so that the Dividends Tax can be paid over timeously to SARS in order to avoid interest and penalties being levied. To summarise, the new Dividends Tax has a significant impact on these financial institutions in areas such as client services, administration and system development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
A critical analysis of the socioeconomic impact assessments of the Addo Elephant National Park
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Rose, Matthew Calvin
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Addo Elephant National Park (South Africa) South African National Parks Economic impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park Environmental impact analysis -- South Africa -- Addo Elephant National Park
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:964 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002698
- Description: Impact assessment is a requirement for development in many countries across the globe, seeking to inform the decision-maker as to the environmental, social and economic impact of an ongoing or proposed project. Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is a means of informing decision-makers as to the socioeconomic effects a project could have, or is having, thus contributing to informing adaptive management practices. However, the tendency of socioeconomic impact assessment to highly quantitative economic methods of analysis raises the question of whether the desired results are achieved by the process. The purpose of the research was to determine whether highly quantitative forms of economic analysis are suitable for measurement of impacts in a social context where distributive as well as net impact is important; to critically analyze the method utilized in achieving highly quantitative economic impact assessment results; and lastly to draw conclusions and make recommendations regarding the efficacy of monitoring processes used to inform adaptive management practices. The research was conducted by means of a case study focusing on three SEIAs carried out on the same entity, namely the Addo Elephant National Park. Managed by South African National Parks (SANP), it began expanding its borders in the early 2000s. Funded by the World Bank, SANP was required to carry out a comprehensive Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in 2003 to ensure the expansion did not have negative environmental, social and economic repercussions, and where such consequences were unavoidable, to ensure that mitigation and management thereof was informed by useful monitoring exercises. Given the need for resettlement and issues of economic distributive concern raised in the 2003 SEA, the three socioeconomic impact assessments conducted from 2005 – 2010 as part of the ongoing monitoring exercises formed an ideal framework for answering the primary research questions. The findings indicate that despite consistent terms of reference, different assessors interpret mandates from the commissioning body in different ways, leading to varied applications of the same theory, some methodologically better than others. Economic multiplier analysis was found to be inadequate as a measure of the distributive effects of economic impact. Moreover, a lack of consistency, accountability and transparency in the monitoring process led to three sets of results that were incomparable over time and thus inadequate as a means to inform adaptive management practices. Asymmetries of and between power and expertise in the commissioning body and the assessors led to breakdowns of the assessment process in terms of accountability and integrity and resulted in a failure to properly define the scope of the study and measure the relevant indicators. The following recommendations were made: that the economic multiplier method be complemented by additional methods of analysis when utilized in disparate social contexts where distribution of economic benefit is important; that monitoring practices be systematized at an early stage of the process to ensure comparable results useful in informing ongoing management practices; and that what an assessment measures and how it measures it be clarified with reference to an objective source. Finally, the number of factors for consideration in any impact assessment means that measurement of the full picture suffers resource constraints, emphasizing the need for impact assessment oversight to recognize the deficiencies of the process whilst still acknowledging that ‘some number is better than no number’.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The proposed new gambling tax in South Africa
- Authors: Roberts, Justin Esrom
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Gambling , Gambling -- Taxation , Gambling -- Taxation -- South Africa , Income tax deductions -- South Africa , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8950 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1639 , Gambling , Gambling -- Taxation , Gambling -- Taxation -- South Africa , Income tax deductions -- South Africa , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Description: In the 2011/2012 Budget Speech delivered by the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, it was announced that a 15% withholding tax on gambling winnings above R 25 000 was to be introduced with effect from 1 April 2012. This treatise was undertaken to critically analyse the different elements of the proposed new withholding tax. It was established that the fiscus already benefits significantly from the gambling industry and levies and taxes from the gambling industry dwarf the revenue SARS collect from other forms of taxes such as Donations tax and Estate Duty tax. The necessity, therefore, of taxing gambling winnings in the hands of the individual is debatable. A comparison with the three foreign countries used by the Minister as an example of countries who have successfully implemented a withholding tax on gambling winnings exposed operational or other characteristics which bear no significant relationship to the situation in which the industry operates in South Africa. Probably the most significant difference is the fact that in the three foreign countries, losses are deductible and only the net gains are taxed. Although it iv could add to an already seemingly administrative-intensive legislation, it is submitted that taxing gambling winnings and ignoring losses suffered by gamblers will be disproportionately unfair towards the taxpayer. The many questions raised in this treatise illustrate the level of uncertainty still surrounding the new proposed gambling tax. It is hoped that communication will be provided by SARS as soon as possible to address the issues at hand. This would go a long way in ensuring that the implementation of the proposed withholding tax on gambling winnings is as smooth and efficient as possible.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Roberts, Justin Esrom
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Gambling , Gambling -- Taxation , Gambling -- Taxation -- South Africa , Income tax deductions -- South Africa , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:8950 , http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1639 , Gambling , Gambling -- Taxation , Gambling -- Taxation -- South Africa , Income tax deductions -- South Africa , Withholding tax -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Description: In the 2011/2012 Budget Speech delivered by the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan, it was announced that a 15% withholding tax on gambling winnings above R 25 000 was to be introduced with effect from 1 April 2012. This treatise was undertaken to critically analyse the different elements of the proposed new withholding tax. It was established that the fiscus already benefits significantly from the gambling industry and levies and taxes from the gambling industry dwarf the revenue SARS collect from other forms of taxes such as Donations tax and Estate Duty tax. The necessity, therefore, of taxing gambling winnings in the hands of the individual is debatable. A comparison with the three foreign countries used by the Minister as an example of countries who have successfully implemented a withholding tax on gambling winnings exposed operational or other characteristics which bear no significant relationship to the situation in which the industry operates in South Africa. Probably the most significant difference is the fact that in the three foreign countries, losses are deductible and only the net gains are taxed. Although it iv could add to an already seemingly administrative-intensive legislation, it is submitted that taxing gambling winnings and ignoring losses suffered by gamblers will be disproportionately unfair towards the taxpayer. The many questions raised in this treatise illustrate the level of uncertainty still surrounding the new proposed gambling tax. It is hoped that communication will be provided by SARS as soon as possible to address the issues at hand. This would go a long way in ensuring that the implementation of the proposed withholding tax on gambling winnings is as smooth and efficient as possible.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Cointegration in equity markets: a comparison between South African and major developed and emerging markets
- Authors: Petrov, Pavel
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration Stock exchanges -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- Developing countries Stock exchanges -- Developed countries South Africa -- Economic conditions Portfolio management -- South Africa Econometrics Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5575 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005539
- Description: Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration in equity markets has become more prevalent. The bulk of research into cointegration focuses on developed and Asian markets, with little research been done on African markets. This study compares the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests for cointegration and uses them to calculate the level of cointegration between South African and other global equity markets. Each market is compared pair-wise with South Africa and the results have been that in general South Africa is cointegrated with other emerging markets but not really with African nor developed markets. Short-run analysis with the error correction was carried out and showed that in general markets respond slowly to any disequilibrium. Innovation accounting methods showed that the country placed first in Cholesky ordering dominates the other one. Multivariate cointegration was carried out using three selections of 4, 6 and 8 market portfolios. One of the markets was SA and the others were all chosen based on the criteria that they are not pair-wise cointegrated with SA. The level of cointegration varied depending on the portfolios, as did the error correction rates, impulse responses and variance decomposition. The one constant was that the USA dominated any portfolio where it was introduced. Recommendations were finally made about which market portfolio an investor should consider as most favourable.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Petrov, Pavel
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration Stock exchanges -- South Africa Stock exchanges -- Developing countries Stock exchanges -- Developed countries South Africa -- Economic conditions Portfolio management -- South Africa Econometrics Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:5575 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005539
- Description: Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration in equity markets has become more prevalent. The bulk of research into cointegration focuses on developed and Asian markets, with little research been done on African markets. This study compares the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests for cointegration and uses them to calculate the level of cointegration between South African and other global equity markets. Each market is compared pair-wise with South Africa and the results have been that in general South Africa is cointegrated with other emerging markets but not really with African nor developed markets. Short-run analysis with the error correction was carried out and showed that in general markets respond slowly to any disequilibrium. Innovation accounting methods showed that the country placed first in Cholesky ordering dominates the other one. Multivariate cointegration was carried out using three selections of 4, 6 and 8 market portfolios. One of the markets was SA and the others were all chosen based on the criteria that they are not pair-wise cointegrated with SA. The level of cointegration varied depending on the portfolios, as did the error correction rates, impulse responses and variance decomposition. The one constant was that the USA dominated any portfolio where it was introduced. Recommendations were finally made about which market portfolio an investor should consider as most favourable.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Identifying the interdependence between South Africa's monetary policy and the stock market
- Authors: Muroyiwa, Brian
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Securities -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:982 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002716 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Securities -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: This study estimates the interdependence between South Africa‟s monetary policy and stock market performance, utilising structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The study finds that a stock price shock which decrease stock prices by 100 basis points leads to 5 basis points decrease in interbank rate. A monetary policy shock that increases the interbank rate by l percent leads to decrease in real stock prices by 1 percent. This result for South Africa is similar to the result by Bjornland and Leteimo (2009) which earlier concluded that there was a high interdependence between interest rate setting and stock prices. However the magnitude of the relationship is relatively lower for South Africa compared to that of the United States of America (USA). The result of the current study is also very much consistent with the argument that the South African stock market is resource-based and so is influenced by external shocks, meaning monetary policy shock does not have as much impact on stock market in South Africa as in the USA. However the SARB may have to consider watching movements in stock prices so that booms in stock markets do not defeat central bank monetary policy thrusts. The stock price market is an essential source of information for monetary policy in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Muroyiwa, Brian
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Monetary policy -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Securities -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:982 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002716 , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Securities -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: This study estimates the interdependence between South Africa‟s monetary policy and stock market performance, utilising structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology. The study finds that a stock price shock which decrease stock prices by 100 basis points leads to 5 basis points decrease in interbank rate. A monetary policy shock that increases the interbank rate by l percent leads to decrease in real stock prices by 1 percent. This result for South Africa is similar to the result by Bjornland and Leteimo (2009) which earlier concluded that there was a high interdependence between interest rate setting and stock prices. However the magnitude of the relationship is relatively lower for South Africa compared to that of the United States of America (USA). The result of the current study is also very much consistent with the argument that the South African stock market is resource-based and so is influenced by external shocks, meaning monetary policy shock does not have as much impact on stock market in South Africa as in the USA. However the SARB may have to consider watching movements in stock prices so that booms in stock markets do not defeat central bank monetary policy thrusts. The stock price market is an essential source of information for monetary policy in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Analysis of volatility spillover effects between the South African, regional and world equity markets
- Authors: Mumba, Mabvuto
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Financial crises International finance Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Capital market -- Africa Capital market -- South Africa Foreign exchange rates Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:957 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002691
- Description: The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Mumba, Mabvuto
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Financial crises International finance Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Capital market -- Africa Capital market -- South Africa Foreign exchange rates Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:957 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002691
- Description: The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Cointegration, causality and international portfolio diversification : investigating potential benefits to a South African investor
- Authors: Msimanga, Nkululeko Lwazi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:962 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002696 , Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Description: Research studies on portfolio diversification have tended to focus on developed markets and paid less attention to emerging markets. Traditionally, correlation analysis has been used to determine potential benefits from diversification but current studies have shifted focus from correlation analysis to exploring cointegration analysis and other forms of tests such as the Vector Error Correction Methodology. The research seeks to find if it is beneficial for a South African investor to diversify their portfolio of emerging market equities over a long-term period. Daily weighted share indices for the period of January 1996 to November 2008 were collected and analysed through the application of the Johansen cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. Granger Causality tests were also performed to established whether one variable can be useful in forecasting another variable. The study found that there was at least one statistically significant long-run relationship between the emerging markets. After testing for unit roots for all the share indices and their first difference using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Philips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, similar conclusions were m~de. All the unit root tests and their levels could not be rejected for all the series. However, unit root tests on the first differences were rejected, meaning that all series are of order 1(1) - evidence of cointegration. Simply put, emerging markets tend not to drift apart over time. This suggests that emerging markets offer limited benefits to investors who are looking to add some risk to their portfolios. In addition, the study also found evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality (Granger-Cause tests) between markets. This implies that the conditions for a particular market are exogenous of the other market. The study concludes that emerging markets are gradually adopting the same profile as developed markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Msimanga, Nkululeko Lwazi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:962 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002696 , Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Description: Research studies on portfolio diversification have tended to focus on developed markets and paid less attention to emerging markets. Traditionally, correlation analysis has been used to determine potential benefits from diversification but current studies have shifted focus from correlation analysis to exploring cointegration analysis and other forms of tests such as the Vector Error Correction Methodology. The research seeks to find if it is beneficial for a South African investor to diversify their portfolio of emerging market equities over a long-term period. Daily weighted share indices for the period of January 1996 to November 2008 were collected and analysed through the application of the Johansen cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. Granger Causality tests were also performed to established whether one variable can be useful in forecasting another variable. The study found that there was at least one statistically significant long-run relationship between the emerging markets. After testing for unit roots for all the share indices and their first difference using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Philips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, similar conclusions were m~de. All the unit root tests and their levels could not be rejected for all the series. However, unit root tests on the first differences were rejected, meaning that all series are of order 1(1) - evidence of cointegration. Simply put, emerging markets tend not to drift apart over time. This suggests that emerging markets offer limited benefits to investors who are looking to add some risk to their portfolios. In addition, the study also found evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality (Granger-Cause tests) between markets. This implies that the conditions for a particular market are exogenous of the other market. The study concludes that emerging markets are gradually adopting the same profile as developed markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Consumer perceptions of private label brands: an Eastern Cape university-aged analysis
- Authors: Mpofu, Bukhosi Dumoluhle
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: House brands -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Young consumers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Consumer behavior -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1167 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002783
- Description: This research investigates the consumer perceptions of private label brands amongst the university aged consumers from selected Eastern Cape universities. The research also aimed to ascertain whether or not generation Y consumers are aware of the existence of private labels, whether price, quality, advertising, packaging, reference groups and demographic variables influenced generation Y purchasing behavior of private label brands. To achieve these objectives, the research made use of the simple random technique to gather the primary data via the use of an online structured questionnaire. The sample population selected where the students in the Eastern Cape Province Universities (Rhodes and Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Universities) who reside off-campus. The assumption was that students who reside off-campus are more aware of private labels as they carry out shopping more than those that reside on campus and generally would have more disposable income and the reason that two different universities have been chosen is to provide a broad base of student opinions, covering varying cultural and income backgrounds, thus allowing for unbiased, valuable research. After pre-tests were conducted the questionnaire was made available online to easy the distribution of the questionnaire and allow for a greater response rate. Descriptive and inferential statistics where used to analyze the results of the questionnaire. The results showed that consumers are generally aware of private label brands and have at least seen them being advertised. Furthermore, the results showed that consumers purchase groceries based on price, quality and convenience of location of the grocery stores .The results indicate that Generation Y consumers are indeed a significant part of the consumer population and that they represent a confident, self reliant, optimistic and positive generation and are verbally and visually more sophisticated, creating a whole new language through digital media and that Generation Y consumers are generally aware of the existence of private labels. The results also indicate that Generation Y consumers strongly agreed that they purchase groceries based on price and quality, meaning price and quality are very influential when purchasing groceries and that the packaging of, generally, all private label brands was not attractive hence a conclusion was made that packaging of private labeled products does not influence Generation Y’s purchasing behaviour of private labels.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Mpofu, Bukhosi Dumoluhle
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: House brands -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Young consumers -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Consumer behavior -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1167 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002783
- Description: This research investigates the consumer perceptions of private label brands amongst the university aged consumers from selected Eastern Cape universities. The research also aimed to ascertain whether or not generation Y consumers are aware of the existence of private labels, whether price, quality, advertising, packaging, reference groups and demographic variables influenced generation Y purchasing behavior of private label brands. To achieve these objectives, the research made use of the simple random technique to gather the primary data via the use of an online structured questionnaire. The sample population selected where the students in the Eastern Cape Province Universities (Rhodes and Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Universities) who reside off-campus. The assumption was that students who reside off-campus are more aware of private labels as they carry out shopping more than those that reside on campus and generally would have more disposable income and the reason that two different universities have been chosen is to provide a broad base of student opinions, covering varying cultural and income backgrounds, thus allowing for unbiased, valuable research. After pre-tests were conducted the questionnaire was made available online to easy the distribution of the questionnaire and allow for a greater response rate. Descriptive and inferential statistics where used to analyze the results of the questionnaire. The results showed that consumers are generally aware of private label brands and have at least seen them being advertised. Furthermore, the results showed that consumers purchase groceries based on price, quality and convenience of location of the grocery stores .The results indicate that Generation Y consumers are indeed a significant part of the consumer population and that they represent a confident, self reliant, optimistic and positive generation and are verbally and visually more sophisticated, creating a whole new language through digital media and that Generation Y consumers are generally aware of the existence of private labels. The results also indicate that Generation Y consumers strongly agreed that they purchase groceries based on price and quality, meaning price and quality are very influential when purchasing groceries and that the packaging of, generally, all private label brands was not attractive hence a conclusion was made that packaging of private labeled products does not influence Generation Y’s purchasing behaviour of private labels.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
The relationship between financial development and manufacturing sector growth: evidence from Southern African Customs Union countries
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Moshabesha, Mosili
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Economic development -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Entrepreneurship -- Case studies -- Africa, Southern Southern African Customs Union
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:990 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002725
- Description: Extensive research has been done on the relationship between financial development (FD) and growth (with the main focus on economic growth). Theoretical models and most of the conclusions reached stipulate that the development of a financial system is one of the essential ingredients for economic growth. A developed financial system is able to provide financial services efficiently to the real sector. This study examines the relationship between FD and manufacturing sector growth of the SACU countries. The study first reviews the theoretical and empirical literature of FD and growth (economic and manufacturing sector). This gives a full understanding of the topic before attempting to empirically study it. It also helps in the selection process of the model and variables to be employed in the study. A balanced panel for four SACU countries, namely Botswana, Lesotho, RSA and Swaziland, for the period 1976 to 2008 was estimated using Zellner‟s Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (SURE) method. Namibia was omitted because of limited data. The SURE model was selected because it performs better than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation of individual equations in cases where the countries studied can be affected by similar external shocks because they are in the same economic region and also have country specific structural differences which could affect their economic growth. Two measures of FD were used: credit to the private sector provided by commercial banks (FIC) and the ratio of liquid liabilities of commercial banks to GDP (LL). Manufacturing sector growth was measured by manufacturing value added to GDP. The results of the relationship between manufacturing growth and FD were very weak across the countries. The model that used FIC performed better, there was a negative significant relationship found in RSA and Swaziland, while with the model that used LL, all the countries gave an insignificant relationship. The results for Swaziland were very consistent with the past findings of the relationship between FD and economic growth in the country (for example Aziakpono (2005a)). This may be because of the high share of the manufacturing sector in GDP. Theory suggests that a well-developed financial system will have a positive impact on growth, but this was not the case in RSA and Botswana, where in some cases FD had a negative impact on the growth of the sector. The analysis of the countries‟ manufacturing sector development shows that the sector plays an important role in the economies of the SACU countries, especially in terms of employment and exports. The coefficients of trade openness are generally positive, though not significant in some cases. The other control variables gave mixed results across the counties and across the models. Based on the findings, the countries have to develop strategies that will improve entrepreneurial skills. Also the financial development in the small SACU countries is essential in order for all the sectors in the economy to benefit from the financial sector and in turn increase economic growth.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Inflation threshold and nonlinearity: implications for inflation targeting in South Africa
- Authors: Morar, Derwina
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation targeting -- South Africa Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:984 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718
- Description: Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Morar, Derwina
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Inflation targeting -- South Africa Interest rates -- Effect of inflation on -- South Africa Monetary policy -- South Africa Economic development -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:984 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718
- Description: Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011