Integration of the new development bank into the international financial architecture
- Chitenderu, Tafadzwa Thelmah
- Authors: Chitenderu, Tafadzwa Thelmah
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: World Bank , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries Economic development -- International cooperation Financial institutions, International
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23924 , vital:30645
- Description: The study looked at the integration of the BRICS New Development Bank into the international financial architecture. In doing so, it made use of an econometric evaluation of the impact of the loans received from the current dominant financial institutions, namely International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, on economic growth of ten self-selected African countries. Given the challenges and the failures of the Western dominated funding to African countries, it is important to ensure that the funding approach of the New Development Bank does not resemble that of the current international finance system. Using panel data and quantile regression econometric models on annual data from ten self-selected African countries that are recipients of World Bank and IMF loans from 1994 to 2014, this thesis presents a framework for the integration of the BRICS’ New Development Bank into the global financial architecture. The results obtained shows a negative and statistically significant impact of World Bank loans on Gross Domestic Product of the country under analysis and a positive statistically insignificant impact of IMF loans. Given the existing global financial institutions and the wealth of expertise at their disposal, this thesis concludes that the existing global financial structure cannot be done away with completely but the New Development Bank should rather perform a complementary role in the global finance space. Accordingly, the New Development Bank should champion a ‘post ideological rhetoric’ in the global financial architecture.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Chitenderu, Tafadzwa Thelmah
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: World Bank , International Monetary Fund -- Developing countries Economic development -- International cooperation Financial institutions, International
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23924 , vital:30645
- Description: The study looked at the integration of the BRICS New Development Bank into the international financial architecture. In doing so, it made use of an econometric evaluation of the impact of the loans received from the current dominant financial institutions, namely International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, on economic growth of ten self-selected African countries. Given the challenges and the failures of the Western dominated funding to African countries, it is important to ensure that the funding approach of the New Development Bank does not resemble that of the current international finance system. Using panel data and quantile regression econometric models on annual data from ten self-selected African countries that are recipients of World Bank and IMF loans from 1994 to 2014, this thesis presents a framework for the integration of the BRICS’ New Development Bank into the global financial architecture. The results obtained shows a negative and statistically significant impact of World Bank loans on Gross Domestic Product of the country under analysis and a positive statistically insignificant impact of IMF loans. Given the existing global financial institutions and the wealth of expertise at their disposal, this thesis concludes that the existing global financial structure cannot be done away with completely but the New Development Bank should rather perform a complementary role in the global finance space. Accordingly, the New Development Bank should champion a ‘post ideological rhetoric’ in the global financial architecture.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Financial market integration, contagion and volatility transmission: a case of the globally developed markets and developing stock markets in Africa
- Authors: Chima, Anyikwa Izunna
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Money market , Investment analysis Capital market
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23935 , vital:30646
- Description: The widespread impact of the 2007 global financial crisis and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis added new impetus to the on-going international discussions about the sustainability of a financial integration model. Moreover, the crisis revealed the complexity of the international transmission of financial shocks and the financial vulnerabilities of different financial markets. More so, it exposed the major weaknesses in our knowledge of how the forces that drive global financial systems operate. This is compounded by a failure to appreciate the scope of interdependencies that exist across markets and their potential to destabilise the global financial system in times of crises. At the heart of this weakness is the inability to accurately understand the various propagation mechanisms and channels through which a crisis from one market is transmitted to other markets. It is against this background that this study is undertaken, in order to empirically investigate the role of financial market integration, contagion and volatility transmission, using weekly data between the period 3 January 2003 to 26 December 2014. The study covers 27 stock markets, comprising 13 African stock markets, 10 developed stock markets and four emerging stock markets. The study employed two empirical frameworks: the first framework focused on the short-run and long-run relationships between African stock markets and major global stock markets using the Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test, GIRF and GFEVD. The second framework focused on testing evidence of contagion and volatility transmission using the DCC-GJRGARCH model and AS model. The results show that the majority of African stock markets moved together in the long-run with the major global stock markets during the pre-crisis and Eurozone crisis periods. While the long-run relationship between African stock markets and the major global markets disappeared during the period of the global financial crisis, the relationship re-emerged during the Eurozone crisis period. From the analysis of Granger causality test, the results show some differences exist in terms of the relative strength of the causal linkages across markets and periods. However, it was shown that strong causal linkages emerged during the global financial and Eurozone crisis periods relative to the pre-crisis period. Also, the leading role of the major developed markets, compared to the emerging markets, is demonstrated throughout the analysis of causality tests. Moreover, the sensitivity of African markets to shocks from the global markets was clearly highlighted by analysis of the GIRF and GFEVD, especially during both crisis periods. Furthermore, the results from the AS model confirm significant evidence of mean and volatility spill-over effects from the major global markets to African markets especially during the periods of both crises. In addition, the level of volatility was found to be more persistent and asymmetric during both crisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period. The results confirm the existence of contagion effects through the analysis of the conditional correlation during both crisis periods. More importantly, the analysis of conditional correlation emphasised evidence of heightened co-movement between African markets and the major global markets during the periods of crisis. Consequently, the decoupling phenomenon is rejected in favour of synchronisation of business cycles between African stock markets and the major global markets. The findings of this study have several important implications for the policymakers and investors in Africa and the world at large. The findings of this study not only provide some information about the level of financial integration but also the effect of growing financial linkages between African markets and the global markets, which is important for designing appropriate regulatory frameworks. Also, the knowledge about the dynamic interrelationship in terms of contagion and volatility transmission between African markets and the major global markets can be utilised by investors, and thereby help them to make better investment decisions. Consequently, the findings of this study point to a need for policymakers in general and in Africa in particular, to monitor closely changes in financial development in other markets in order to reduce the vulnerability of domestic markets to external shocks. To mitigate the impact of the external shocks, greater co-operation and co-ordination, with proper supervision of different markets‟ fiscal and monetary policies, should be encouraged. Such policies need to be carefully aligned with the objective of external sustainability. This can be achieved through strategic partnerships and mergers, foreign institutional investments, cross market listing of shares, corporatisation of exchanges and the introduction of private ownership. Above all, effective regulation is needed to realise the benefits of financial market integration.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Chima, Anyikwa Izunna
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Money market , Investment analysis Capital market
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23935 , vital:30646
- Description: The widespread impact of the 2007 global financial crisis and the subsequent Eurozone sovereign debt crisis added new impetus to the on-going international discussions about the sustainability of a financial integration model. Moreover, the crisis revealed the complexity of the international transmission of financial shocks and the financial vulnerabilities of different financial markets. More so, it exposed the major weaknesses in our knowledge of how the forces that drive global financial systems operate. This is compounded by a failure to appreciate the scope of interdependencies that exist across markets and their potential to destabilise the global financial system in times of crises. At the heart of this weakness is the inability to accurately understand the various propagation mechanisms and channels through which a crisis from one market is transmitted to other markets. It is against this background that this study is undertaken, in order to empirically investigate the role of financial market integration, contagion and volatility transmission, using weekly data between the period 3 January 2003 to 26 December 2014. The study covers 27 stock markets, comprising 13 African stock markets, 10 developed stock markets and four emerging stock markets. The study employed two empirical frameworks: the first framework focused on the short-run and long-run relationships between African stock markets and major global stock markets using the Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test, GIRF and GFEVD. The second framework focused on testing evidence of contagion and volatility transmission using the DCC-GJRGARCH model and AS model. The results show that the majority of African stock markets moved together in the long-run with the major global stock markets during the pre-crisis and Eurozone crisis periods. While the long-run relationship between African stock markets and the major global markets disappeared during the period of the global financial crisis, the relationship re-emerged during the Eurozone crisis period. From the analysis of Granger causality test, the results show some differences exist in terms of the relative strength of the causal linkages across markets and periods. However, it was shown that strong causal linkages emerged during the global financial and Eurozone crisis periods relative to the pre-crisis period. Also, the leading role of the major developed markets, compared to the emerging markets, is demonstrated throughout the analysis of causality tests. Moreover, the sensitivity of African markets to shocks from the global markets was clearly highlighted by analysis of the GIRF and GFEVD, especially during both crisis periods. Furthermore, the results from the AS model confirm significant evidence of mean and volatility spill-over effects from the major global markets to African markets especially during the periods of both crises. In addition, the level of volatility was found to be more persistent and asymmetric during both crisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period. The results confirm the existence of contagion effects through the analysis of the conditional correlation during both crisis periods. More importantly, the analysis of conditional correlation emphasised evidence of heightened co-movement between African markets and the major global markets during the periods of crisis. Consequently, the decoupling phenomenon is rejected in favour of synchronisation of business cycles between African stock markets and the major global markets. The findings of this study have several important implications for the policymakers and investors in Africa and the world at large. The findings of this study not only provide some information about the level of financial integration but also the effect of growing financial linkages between African markets and the global markets, which is important for designing appropriate regulatory frameworks. Also, the knowledge about the dynamic interrelationship in terms of contagion and volatility transmission between African markets and the major global markets can be utilised by investors, and thereby help them to make better investment decisions. Consequently, the findings of this study point to a need for policymakers in general and in Africa in particular, to monitor closely changes in financial development in other markets in order to reduce the vulnerability of domestic markets to external shocks. To mitigate the impact of the external shocks, greater co-operation and co-ordination, with proper supervision of different markets‟ fiscal and monetary policies, should be encouraged. Such policies need to be carefully aligned with the objective of external sustainability. This can be achieved through strategic partnerships and mergers, foreign institutional investments, cross market listing of shares, corporatisation of exchanges and the introduction of private ownership. Above all, effective regulation is needed to realise the benefits of financial market integration.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
The intersection between social development and the internationalisation of higher education in Colombia
- Authors: Anzola-Pardo, Giovanni
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- Colombia , Education and globalization International education -- Colombia Education, Higher -- International cooperation -- Colombia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23371 , vital:30536
- Description: The study addresses the nature of Colombian sustainable social development and the internationalisation of higher education (iHE). This intersection is analysed within various theoretical paradigms surrounding social sustainable development and the internationalisation of higher education. This study aims at reviewing the activities of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) which focus on internationalisation. The analysis focuses on the manner in which HEIs in Colombia approach internationalisation vis-à-vis social sustainable development, and emphasis is made on knowledge transfer, research and community engagement. Using the theories of sustainable development, the iHE, in terms of practises and policies, are assessed. Within a mixed-methods approach, data gathered from Colombian university heads (16 presidents and vice-presidents) and 133 individuals responsible for internationalisation affairs is analysed. Concurrent triangulation is used to help introduce a series of themes and sub-themes derived from the qualitative and quantitative information. Within a social constructionist framework, this study has a twofold purpose. On the one hand, it is sought to identify and understand the challenges for Colombia’s academic internationalisation; on the other, an in-depth approach is presented in relation to the way different stakeholders perceive the society-HE internationalisation nexus. The major findings of the study indicate that there is a need to clarify and revise Colombia’s Higher Education policy to address both the education needs of the society and its social development requirements. It was also found that higher education internationalisation could act as an important agent of social change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Anzola-Pardo, Giovanni
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Education, Higher -- Colombia , Education and globalization International education -- Colombia Education, Higher -- International cooperation -- Colombia
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/23371 , vital:30536
- Description: The study addresses the nature of Colombian sustainable social development and the internationalisation of higher education (iHE). This intersection is analysed within various theoretical paradigms surrounding social sustainable development and the internationalisation of higher education. This study aims at reviewing the activities of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) which focus on internationalisation. The analysis focuses on the manner in which HEIs in Colombia approach internationalisation vis-à-vis social sustainable development, and emphasis is made on knowledge transfer, research and community engagement. Using the theories of sustainable development, the iHE, in terms of practises and policies, are assessed. Within a mixed-methods approach, data gathered from Colombian university heads (16 presidents and vice-presidents) and 133 individuals responsible for internationalisation affairs is analysed. Concurrent triangulation is used to help introduce a series of themes and sub-themes derived from the qualitative and quantitative information. Within a social constructionist framework, this study has a twofold purpose. On the one hand, it is sought to identify and understand the challenges for Colombia’s academic internationalisation; on the other, an in-depth approach is presented in relation to the way different stakeholders perceive the society-HE internationalisation nexus. The major findings of the study indicate that there is a need to clarify and revise Colombia’s Higher Education policy to address both the education needs of the society and its social development requirements. It was also found that higher education internationalisation could act as an important agent of social change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Detection of early warning signs of currency crises in South Africa
- Gondoza, Gladys Nicola Fernandes
- Authors: Gondoza, Gladys Nicola Fernandes
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Financial crises -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/30238 , vital:30905
- Description: In a world characterised by globalisation, particularly increased financial integration and capital mobility, international economic theory stipulates that countries rather maintain a floating exchange rate system than a fixed exchange rate system in order to have less susceptibility to currency crises (Glick & Hutchison, 2011). South Africa, the economic powerhouse of Africa, is an interesting case to examine. It has a floating exchange rate and should thus be more resistant to currency crises due to market adjustment expectations that limit the build-up of pressure in its foreign exchange markets. South Africa’s foreign exchange market is characterised as volatile with recurring turbulent periods with currency crises observed in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2008, of which the 2007/2008 global financial crisis was the worst the world had experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s and it had a significant, negative impact on the South African economy and certainly exposed the country’s vulnerably (South African Reserve Bank, 2012). Having experienced these periods of currency crisis in South Africa and with no specific tool adequately tested and developed for the South African economy to accurately detect such an event before its occurrence, this research was an attempt to fill this gap within the economics discipline. The purpose of this thesis was to examine and make use of Early Warning System (EWS) models to ascertain which one best identifies potential early warning signs of a currency crisis in South Africa. To achieve this, the study tested two standard and commonly used EWS models, namely the Signals and probit models. Added to these approaches, two newer EWS models, namely the Markov regime switching model and the artificial neural networks model were tested. To date only two studies on EWS models for currency crises have been conducted in South Africa. Knedlik (2006) used the signals approach and Knedlik and Scheufele (2007) used the signals, probit/logit and Markov regime switching approaches. Both studies recommended that further research was needed. With this in mind, this thesis built on these studies by extending the sample period under observation from 1993/02 to 2017/03 to fully capture the probability of the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. This study separated the sample period into two parts, a first period (1993/02 – 2004/12) catering for the July 1998 and December 2001 crises and a second period (2005/01 – 2017/03) catering for the October 2008 crisis. This was done to separately observe how well the models detected early warning signs of the October 2008 crisis due to its global nature. By exploring the potential of artificial intelligence by employing the non-parametric approach of artificial neural networks, which has not yet been applied in the South African context for the probability prediction of currency crises, and comparing its prediction performance to the signals, the probit and the Markov regime switching EWS models, this thesis fills an existing information gap. This study found that of these four EWS models for predicting the probabilities of currency crises within the 24-month crisis window, the signals model performed better than the other models for the period 1993/02 – 2004/12. However, the final-outcome of the best model in probability prediction of South African currency crises is not straightforward for this period, as the artificial neural network model and Markov regime switching model performed almost as well as the signals model. During the period 2005/01 – 2017/03, the artificial neural networks model outperformed the other three models in capturing the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, specifically with regard to the evaluations of the percentage of pre-crisis periods called correctly and the percentage of tranquil periods called correctly. As the cut-off probability increases, the artificial neural networks model is the superior model and is not closely followed by the other models. The artificial neural network model also indicated a stable / tranquil economy during the period following the global financial crisis (from about 2009 – 2017), which is a true reflection of that period. The findings of this study suggest that the artificial neural network model is a powerful tool in the probability prediction of early warning signs of currency crises in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Gondoza, Gladys Nicola Fernandes
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Financial crises -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10948/30238 , vital:30905
- Description: In a world characterised by globalisation, particularly increased financial integration and capital mobility, international economic theory stipulates that countries rather maintain a floating exchange rate system than a fixed exchange rate system in order to have less susceptibility to currency crises (Glick & Hutchison, 2011). South Africa, the economic powerhouse of Africa, is an interesting case to examine. It has a floating exchange rate and should thus be more resistant to currency crises due to market adjustment expectations that limit the build-up of pressure in its foreign exchange markets. South Africa’s foreign exchange market is characterised as volatile with recurring turbulent periods with currency crises observed in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2008, of which the 2007/2008 global financial crisis was the worst the world had experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s and it had a significant, negative impact on the South African economy and certainly exposed the country’s vulnerably (South African Reserve Bank, 2012). Having experienced these periods of currency crisis in South Africa and with no specific tool adequately tested and developed for the South African economy to accurately detect such an event before its occurrence, this research was an attempt to fill this gap within the economics discipline. The purpose of this thesis was to examine and make use of Early Warning System (EWS) models to ascertain which one best identifies potential early warning signs of a currency crisis in South Africa. To achieve this, the study tested two standard and commonly used EWS models, namely the Signals and probit models. Added to these approaches, two newer EWS models, namely the Markov regime switching model and the artificial neural networks model were tested. To date only two studies on EWS models for currency crises have been conducted in South Africa. Knedlik (2006) used the signals approach and Knedlik and Scheufele (2007) used the signals, probit/logit and Markov regime switching approaches. Both studies recommended that further research was needed. With this in mind, this thesis built on these studies by extending the sample period under observation from 1993/02 to 2017/03 to fully capture the probability of the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. This study separated the sample period into two parts, a first period (1993/02 – 2004/12) catering for the July 1998 and December 2001 crises and a second period (2005/01 – 2017/03) catering for the October 2008 crisis. This was done to separately observe how well the models detected early warning signs of the October 2008 crisis due to its global nature. By exploring the potential of artificial intelligence by employing the non-parametric approach of artificial neural networks, which has not yet been applied in the South African context for the probability prediction of currency crises, and comparing its prediction performance to the signals, the probit and the Markov regime switching EWS models, this thesis fills an existing information gap. This study found that of these four EWS models for predicting the probabilities of currency crises within the 24-month crisis window, the signals model performed better than the other models for the period 1993/02 – 2004/12. However, the final-outcome of the best model in probability prediction of South African currency crises is not straightforward for this period, as the artificial neural network model and Markov regime switching model performed almost as well as the signals model. During the period 2005/01 – 2017/03, the artificial neural networks model outperformed the other three models in capturing the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, specifically with regard to the evaluations of the percentage of pre-crisis periods called correctly and the percentage of tranquil periods called correctly. As the cut-off probability increases, the artificial neural networks model is the superior model and is not closely followed by the other models. The artificial neural network model also indicated a stable / tranquil economy during the period following the global financial crisis (from about 2009 – 2017), which is a true reflection of that period. The findings of this study suggest that the artificial neural network model is a powerful tool in the probability prediction of early warning signs of currency crises in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- «
- ‹
- 1
- ›
- »