An institutional analysis of community and home based care and support for HIV/AIDS sufferers in rural households in Malawi
- Authors: Munthali, Spy Mbiriyawaka
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: AIDS (Disease) -- Patients -- Care -- Malawi HIV-positive persons -- Care -- Malawi HIV infections -- Malawi Home-based family services -- Malawi Community health services -- Malawi Community development -- Malawi Economic development -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:985 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002719
- Description: Standard economic models often emphasize inputs, outputs and an examination of the structures in order to conduct an economic performance evaluation. This study applies the Institutional and Development Framework (IAD) in the broader context of New Institutional Economics (NIE) in order to examine the transaction costs of delivering Community and Home Based Care and Support (CHBC) to HIV/AIDS sufferers. For purposes of unveiling the empirical reality guiding decision making processes in the CHBC service delivery, comparative qualitative research techniques of normative variable and concept formation have been adopted to draw out the relative institutional influences from the HIV/AIDS national response partnerships. The study identifies the conflict between the predominantly standardized and more rigid formal management techniques adopted by key members of the national response and the informal cultural techniques familiar to the rural communities, and a lack of motivational incentives in the CHBC structures as the key factors against CHBC capacities to draw external funding for service delivery. CHBCs are also weakened by incoherent governance structures at the district level for facilitation of funding and information flow exacerbating the community vulnerability. Rationalization of the institutional arrangements and a clarification of roles from district to community levels, a shift of focus to facilitation of informal techniques and an integration of performance enhancing incentives are the critical policy insights envisaged to spur CHBCs to work better.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Munthali, Spy Mbiriyawaka
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: AIDS (Disease) -- Patients -- Care -- Malawi HIV-positive persons -- Care -- Malawi HIV infections -- Malawi Home-based family services -- Malawi Community health services -- Malawi Community development -- Malawi Economic development -- Malawi
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:985 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002719
- Description: Standard economic models often emphasize inputs, outputs and an examination of the structures in order to conduct an economic performance evaluation. This study applies the Institutional and Development Framework (IAD) in the broader context of New Institutional Economics (NIE) in order to examine the transaction costs of delivering Community and Home Based Care and Support (CHBC) to HIV/AIDS sufferers. For purposes of unveiling the empirical reality guiding decision making processes in the CHBC service delivery, comparative qualitative research techniques of normative variable and concept formation have been adopted to draw out the relative institutional influences from the HIV/AIDS national response partnerships. The study identifies the conflict between the predominantly standardized and more rigid formal management techniques adopted by key members of the national response and the informal cultural techniques familiar to the rural communities, and a lack of motivational incentives in the CHBC structures as the key factors against CHBC capacities to draw external funding for service delivery. CHBCs are also weakened by incoherent governance structures at the district level for facilitation of funding and information flow exacerbating the community vulnerability. Rationalization of the institutional arrangements and a clarification of roles from district to community levels, a shift of focus to facilitation of informal techniques and an integration of performance enhancing incentives are the critical policy insights envisaged to spur CHBCs to work better.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The covariation of South African and foreign equity returns during bull and bear runs : implications for portfolio diversification
- Authors: Mhlanga, Godfrey
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:944 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002678
- Description: This study examines the pattern of covariation of the industrial index returns of South Africa and foreign industrial sectors. This follows recent increase in national equity correlations and increases in the influence of industry effects in portfolio diversification. The covariation pattern in returns across industries and countries during both bull and bear runs is examined using correlation analysis to determine if there is a difference between the two epochs. The study presents preliminary evidence of the covariation between sectors during a bear and a bull run. Return covariation among sectors is impelled to a greater extent by country-specific factors than by industry-specific factors, implying the segmentation of industrial sectors. Thus, South African investors can in general gain more if a portfolio comprising shares across industries and countries is held, even if these investors buy shares from similar industries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Mhlanga, Godfrey
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:944 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002678
- Description: This study examines the pattern of covariation of the industrial index returns of South Africa and foreign industrial sectors. This follows recent increase in national equity correlations and increases in the influence of industry effects in portfolio diversification. The covariation pattern in returns across industries and countries during both bull and bear runs is examined using correlation analysis to determine if there is a difference between the two epochs. The study presents preliminary evidence of the covariation between sectors during a bear and a bull run. Return covariation among sectors is impelled to a greater extent by country-specific factors than by industry-specific factors, implying the segmentation of industrial sectors. Thus, South African investors can in general gain more if a portfolio comprising shares across industries and countries is held, even if these investors buy shares from similar industries.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
The relationship between accounting choices and share prices : a study of South African listed companies
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Bunting, Mark Bevan
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:989 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002724 , Financial statements -- South Africa , Accounting -- South Africa , Managerial accounting -- South Africa
- Description: It is widely assumed that the managers of companies behave in a self-interested and opportunistic manner when making the discretionary accounting choices that are applied in the preparation of published financial reports. Empirical research has found evidence for this in the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Australia, amongst other countries. There has, however, been no prior work of a similar nature in a South African context. The purpose of this study is to extend this body of work by examining the relationship between a number of potentially opportunistic (profit-increasing, income-smoothing and solvencyimproving) accounting choices made by the managers of South African listed companies, and growth rates in the share prices of those companies. Data in respect of thirty-nine medium-sized South African listed companies are analysed for evidence of the expected positive relationship between opportunistic accounting choices and share price growth. No evidence is found for this relationship. This may be due to limitations in the research design, inadequacies in the interpretation of the agency theory from which the hypotheses are developed, or a combination of both. Refinements in the research design or a re-interpretation of the theory may be successful in addressing these matters as part of future research efforts.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
A case for institutional investigations in economic research methods with reference to South Africa's agricultural sector
- Authors: Mbatha, Cyril
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Economic development -- Research -- Methodology Agriculture -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Agricultural productivity -- South Africa Agriculture -- Research -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:972 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002706
- Description: Economic development remains elusive for many world economies, but especially those of African countries. The current global inequalities in terms of GNP per capita and human living standards between developed and developing nations have ensured that the challenges of food insecurities are only some of the many negative experiences of underdevelopment in the African continent. Hence, delivery pressures are increasing on policy makers and researchers to provide tangible and timely economic solutions to the resilient state of underdevelopment. In the policy fights against the challenges posed by a lack of development in South Africa, the agricultural sector has in the past and continues in the present to play a central role. Such is the case because the majority of citizens rely on agricultural production activities for their livelihoods. For instance, even though the sector only contributed four percent towards the national Gross Domestic Product in 2006, in the Eastern Cape Province, more than seventy percent of the total population resided in rural areas. Moreover, in 2004 more than sixty percent of the national formal and informal employment levels were found in the sector. These economic indicators do not only reinforce the assertions that high levels of geographical and sectoral inequalities exist in the country’s economy, but they also illustrate the importance of the agricultural sector in public policy attempts, which are aimed at achieving food security alongside long-term developmental objectives. Some economists, especially the proponents of institutionalism, have argued that most of the recommendations to public policy interventions from mainstream economic research endeavours are not adequately helpful. The recommendations generally lack well considered and socially effective ideas, mainly because there remains some level of ignorance about the impacts that institutions have on economic and social systems. Some argue that this ignorance is reflected in (flawed) hedonistic and rationalist assumptions made about economic actors and in the methodological thinking of many research designs and economic analyses. The misuse of formal tools and statistical methods, for example, are some of the important factors, which have led to failures of the discipline of economics to provide effective policy solutions to problems of underdevelopment and poverty, especially in poor country environments. The thesis, having taken account of the majority of criticisms levelled against the classical and new-classical economic schools of thought, argues that the discipline as a whole lacks a paradigmatic integration of institutional and new-classical economic perspectives to offer appropriate guidelines for a methodology aimed at achieving socially responsive research outputs. The lack of this integration has resulted in a skewed selection of methods by economists, which are employed in research without a supportive and in-depth understanding of institutional and social factors. To support the thesis, a more effective and integrated framework for economic research is developed and presented with case study illustrations in a cumulative manner. The 20th century history of agricultural policies in South Africa, the agricultural and institutional case studies from the Eastern Cape Province alongside reviews of other agricultural studies are all used in presenting a case for rigorous institutional investigations in general economic research. These are also used in developing the proposed integrated framework, which aims to give guidance in developing research methods, which are more socially responsive. Having shown the usefulness of the proposed research framework, the thesis recommends that public policy interventions (at national and local levels) should aim to eliminate all types of institutions which have high associated transactional costs. The interventions should also encourage the emergence and growth of the types of institutions, which present the lowest costs to initiatives of economic development. In the primary case studies from the Eastern Cape Province, the insecurity of land tenure and the various local initiatives of business ventures are highlighted as two examples of the types of institutions, which respectively present high and low transactional costs to local initiatives of agricultural and economic development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Mbatha, Cyril
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Economic development -- South Africa Economic development -- Research -- Methodology Agriculture -- South Africa Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Agricultural productivity -- South Africa Agriculture -- Research -- South Africa South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:972 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002706
- Description: Economic development remains elusive for many world economies, but especially those of African countries. The current global inequalities in terms of GNP per capita and human living standards between developed and developing nations have ensured that the challenges of food insecurities are only some of the many negative experiences of underdevelopment in the African continent. Hence, delivery pressures are increasing on policy makers and researchers to provide tangible and timely economic solutions to the resilient state of underdevelopment. In the policy fights against the challenges posed by a lack of development in South Africa, the agricultural sector has in the past and continues in the present to play a central role. Such is the case because the majority of citizens rely on agricultural production activities for their livelihoods. For instance, even though the sector only contributed four percent towards the national Gross Domestic Product in 2006, in the Eastern Cape Province, more than seventy percent of the total population resided in rural areas. Moreover, in 2004 more than sixty percent of the national formal and informal employment levels were found in the sector. These economic indicators do not only reinforce the assertions that high levels of geographical and sectoral inequalities exist in the country’s economy, but they also illustrate the importance of the agricultural sector in public policy attempts, which are aimed at achieving food security alongside long-term developmental objectives. Some economists, especially the proponents of institutionalism, have argued that most of the recommendations to public policy interventions from mainstream economic research endeavours are not adequately helpful. The recommendations generally lack well considered and socially effective ideas, mainly because there remains some level of ignorance about the impacts that institutions have on economic and social systems. Some argue that this ignorance is reflected in (flawed) hedonistic and rationalist assumptions made about economic actors and in the methodological thinking of many research designs and economic analyses. The misuse of formal tools and statistical methods, for example, are some of the important factors, which have led to failures of the discipline of economics to provide effective policy solutions to problems of underdevelopment and poverty, especially in poor country environments. The thesis, having taken account of the majority of criticisms levelled against the classical and new-classical economic schools of thought, argues that the discipline as a whole lacks a paradigmatic integration of institutional and new-classical economic perspectives to offer appropriate guidelines for a methodology aimed at achieving socially responsive research outputs. The lack of this integration has resulted in a skewed selection of methods by economists, which are employed in research without a supportive and in-depth understanding of institutional and social factors. To support the thesis, a more effective and integrated framework for economic research is developed and presented with case study illustrations in a cumulative manner. The 20th century history of agricultural policies in South Africa, the agricultural and institutional case studies from the Eastern Cape Province alongside reviews of other agricultural studies are all used in presenting a case for rigorous institutional investigations in general economic research. These are also used in developing the proposed integrated framework, which aims to give guidance in developing research methods, which are more socially responsive. Having shown the usefulness of the proposed research framework, the thesis recommends that public policy interventions (at national and local levels) should aim to eliminate all types of institutions which have high associated transactional costs. The interventions should also encourage the emergence and growth of the types of institutions, which present the lowest costs to initiatives of economic development. In the primary case studies from the Eastern Cape Province, the insecurity of land tenure and the various local initiatives of business ventures are highlighted as two examples of the types of institutions, which respectively present high and low transactional costs to local initiatives of agricultural and economic development.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An appraisal of basic infrastructural service delivery and community participation at the local level a case study of three municipalities in the Eastern Cape
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Mamba, Bonginkosi
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:958 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002692 , Municipal services -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing policy -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Housing -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies , Local government -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape Case studies
- Description: Housing provision plays a vital role in meeting basic needs. Dwellings provide the security required for basic functioning and are thus essential for both human development and the alleviation of poverty. This study examines the levels and quality of basic infrastructural service delivery (electricity, water and sanitation) at local government level, focusing on housing. The local government areas studied include Grahamstown Fort Beaufort and Duncan Village. This was done for the purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of the existing housing policy with regard to the adequacy of scale, its developmental logic, implementation and coordination. Justification for basic infrastructural service delivery is based on the Basic Needs Approach [BNA] which forms the cornerstone of the World Bank’s delivery framework. The paper makes use of two methods: firstly, secondary sources are used to provide an impression of the broad policy framework focusing around basic service delivery with housing as the centrepiece. Specific attention is thus given to Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) as this is the level of policy-making responsible for the delivery of these services to communities. Secondly, previously un-analysed data drawn from a household social exclusion survey (2005-2006) conducted in three Eastern Cape municipalities (Buffalo City, Makana and Nkonkobe – representing respectively urban, small town, and rural areas) are evaluated. The data are analysed two ways – graphically and through a regression analysis – to test four hypotheses regarding basic service delivery. Graphical analysis demonstrates that services differ according to housing type and location. It was found that brick houses seem more likely to have better basic services than either shacks or mud dwellings. The results also show that there are inequalities in the provision of certain basic services such as water and sanitation between Duncan Village and Grahamstown. Overall, the results of this study show that government is still faced with major challenges in addressing housing backlogs.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An empirical analysis of the long-run comovement, dynamic returns linkages and volatility transmission between the world major and the South African stock markets
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Trends and determinants of inward foreign direct investment to South Africa
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Rusike, Tatonga Gardner
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:995 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002730 , International business enterprises -- South Africa , Investments, Foreign -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a way to provide the needed capital inflow to stimulate growth in a domestic economy. FDI can also result in increased employment levels, managerial skills and increase in technology. In efforts to attract FDI, host countries have undertaken various policy incentives to attract foreign investors. This study analyses the trends and determinants of inward FDI to South Africa for the period 1975-2005. The study starts by reviewing FDI literature on its determinants and provides the macroeconomic background and FDI related policies undertaken in South Africa. The trend and sectoral analysis provides the actual nature of FDI flows to South Africa. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical determinants of FDI is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. The study also augments the cointegration framework with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to complement the long and short run determinants of FDI. Dummy variables are used in each of the estimated FDI models to take into account the possibility of structural breaks. Results show that relative to the size of the economy and to other developing countries, South Africa still receives low levels of inward FDI. Only are few years are exceptional i.e. 1997, 2001 and 2005. From the sectoral distribution, the financial sector is now the major recipient of FDI followed by the mining and manufacturing sectors. The emergence of the financial sector could suggest that FDI motives could have shifted from the natural resource seeking and market seeking to efficiency seeking FDI. The United Kingdom emerges as the major source of FDI to South Africa followed by United States of America and Germany. Empirical analysis indicated that openness, exchange rate and financial development are important long run determinants of FDI. Increased openness and financial development attract FDI while an increase (depreciation) in the exchange rate deters FDI to South Africa. Market size emerges as a short run determinant of FDI although it is declining in importance. Most of the impulse response analysis confirmed the VECM findings. Variance decomposition analysis showed that FDI itself, imports and exchange rate explain a significant amount of the forecast error variance. The influence of market size variable is small and declining over time.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
Willingness to pay for the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment of South Africa
- Authors: Law, Matthew Charles
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:996 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002731 , Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Description: Water hyacinth is recognised as one of the most problematic invasive aquatic plant species in Africa. For this reason considerable funds are spent each year on itscontrol. As a consequence of the amount of money being spent on problems such as the invasion of water hyacinth, and because of the recognition of the ongoing and accelerated efforts that are required in the future, recent research has focused on accurately quantifying the costs and benefits of control of invasive species to aid policy decisions.A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis would be able to identify if the funds are justified and are being spent effectively. This thesis provides an example of a cost-benefit analysis of funds spent on the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment in South Africa. In order to develop a comprehensive assessment of the total economic value of the control of water hyacinth to an urban population, the Nahoon River in East London was selected as the study site to calculate the benefits of control. In addition to valuing the direct services provided by the resources that are traded in the market (in this case water provision), a contingent valuation study was undertaken in Abbottsford and Dorchester Heights (two suburbs in East London banking the Nahoon River). These were done in order to assess any non-use value a sample of 132 households of the population has for the control of water hyacinth, and any use values that are not traded in the market, for example recreational value. When the benefits of control of water hyacinth were compared to the costs of one of the least cost effective methods of control (herbicidal control), the benefits outweighed the costs by a ratio of more than 4:1, and for the most cost effective method of control the ratio was almost 6:1. These results provide a justification for the funds that are devoted to the control of water hyacinth, providing an argument for the continued expenditure for its control, and for further research into more cost effective methods of control, such as biological control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Law, Matthew Charles
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:996 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002731 , Water hyacinth -- Control -- South Africa , Urban ecology (Sociology) -- South Africa , Biodiversity -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biodiversity conservation -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Biological invasions -- Environmental aspects -- South Africa
- Description: Water hyacinth is recognised as one of the most problematic invasive aquatic plant species in Africa. For this reason considerable funds are spent each year on itscontrol. As a consequence of the amount of money being spent on problems such as the invasion of water hyacinth, and because of the recognition of the ongoing and accelerated efforts that are required in the future, recent research has focused on accurately quantifying the costs and benefits of control of invasive species to aid policy decisions.A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis would be able to identify if the funds are justified and are being spent effectively. This thesis provides an example of a cost-benefit analysis of funds spent on the control of water hyacinth in an urban environment in South Africa. In order to develop a comprehensive assessment of the total economic value of the control of water hyacinth to an urban population, the Nahoon River in East London was selected as the study site to calculate the benefits of control. In addition to valuing the direct services provided by the resources that are traded in the market (in this case water provision), a contingent valuation study was undertaken in Abbottsford and Dorchester Heights (two suburbs in East London banking the Nahoon River). These were done in order to assess any non-use value a sample of 132 households of the population has for the control of water hyacinth, and any use values that are not traded in the market, for example recreational value. When the benefits of control of water hyacinth were compared to the costs of one of the least cost effective methods of control (herbicidal control), the benefits outweighed the costs by a ratio of more than 4:1, and for the most cost effective method of control the ratio was almost 6:1. These results provide a justification for the funds that are devoted to the control of water hyacinth, providing an argument for the continued expenditure for its control, and for further research into more cost effective methods of control, such as biological control.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
An analysis of the turn-of-the-year effect in South African equity returns
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Potgieter, Damien
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1063 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007605 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , FTSE International , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock price indexes -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates FTSE/JSE All Share index monthly and daily equity returns for evidence of the January and TY effect. Four different measures of monthly return are analysed for the 1995-2006 period, whilst daily returns are analysed during the 1995-2005 period. In addition to this, analysis is conducted on monthly Fama-MacBeth risk premium estimates tor the FTSE/JSE All Share Index. Descriptive statistics are first analysed, followed by ANOV A or Kruskai-Wallis tests, the paired t-test and finally dummy variable regression analysis in investigating the seasonality of FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns and risk premia. Analysis on monthly returns reveals an absence of the January effect, however a positive slightly statistically significant December effect is found. Thus, investors earn abnormal returns on equity during the month of December. The results from the Fama-MacBeth risk premia estimates reveals highly statistically significant negative risk premia seasonal patterns during March, July and September. Thus, investors are in fact penalised for investing in equities during these months. In addition, the analysis reveals an absence of a December effect in risk premia, which contradicts the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. The daily return analysis reveals a highly significant Turn-of-the-Year effect (TY), which suggests that investors earn abnormal returns on days at the turn of the year. Therefore, it is concluded that a December effect is apparent in South African equity monthly returns, whilst a March, July and September effect is apparent in South African equity risk premia contradicting the risk-return trade-off central to modem finance. In addition to this, a TY effect is present in South African equity daily returns.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
Securitisation and its application to low cost housing finance in South Africa
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Zimbwa, Allan Golden
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1011 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002746 , South Africa. Constitution , Human rights -- Government policy -- South Africa , Right to housing -- South Africa , Housing -- Law and legislation -- South Africa , Housing policy -- South Africa , Low income housing -- South Africa
- Description: Section 26 of the Constitution of South Africa Act 108 of 1996 provides that housing is a basic human right and that the government must take reasonable legislative and other measures to achieve the realisation of this right. A number of measures were taken to try to resolve this socio-economic issue. A number of housing institutions were established , various pieces of legislation were passed and housing subsidies were provided. However, housing backlogs remain a challenge. In March 1994 the housing backlog was estimated between 1,3 and 1,8 million units. When more than a million houses were provided by 2001 , the housing backlog had increased to between 2 and 3 million houses. To date subsidies in excess of R29 billion have been spent on housing provision. A study by the Department of Housing concluded that, at the current rate of increase of housing funding vis-a-vis the growing backlog and rapid urbanisation, the household backlog will not be changed in ten years' time. The United States of America (USA) had a similar low cost housing problem, but securitisation alleviated it with the participation of government agencies Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac. In South Africa, the NHFC tried to emulate the USA model by establishing Gateway Home Loans (Pty) Limited (Gateway) in 1999. Gateway, however, was not a success. This research investigates whether securitisation can be applied in South Africa to alleviate the low cost housing issue. The study finds that there is a credit availability gap for the low income sector earning less than R8 000 per month because of the perceived risk of default and unwillingness by banks to lend to this sector. The increase in housing backlog that continues unabated, inadequate housing finance system to low income earners, the lessons learnt from the failure of Gateway, the success factors of the USA securitisation model and the sound and sophisticated South African financial system are the rationale for applying securitisation. A proposal of how to effectively apply securitisation to low cost housing in South Africa is provided with recommendations to revive the primary market.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
A holistic approach to consumption analysis in the popular music market
- Authors: Scheckter, Jonathan
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Consumption (Economics) -- Moral and ethical aspects , Music trade -- South Africa , Popular music -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:981 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002715 , Consumption (Economics) -- Moral and ethical aspects , Music trade -- South Africa , Popular music -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis seeks to gain a holistic understanding of consumption issues in the popular music market, such that it needs to account for the influence of 1) technological factors, 2) institutional factors, 3) cultural factors, and 4) an ontological aspect; as these are identified to be the most prominent aspects in the literature on the market. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the market, there has been little formal attempt to link such issues in a comprehensive fashion. The methodology applied provides a critique of the literature on specific consumption theories which have apparent pertinence to the music market. Each of the sociological, psychological, and economic theories (neoclassical and radical) is found to be too generalized to provide such an understanding, in that many issues concerning the music market would need to be eschewed if these theories were to be applied in an orthodox fashion. Moreover, the theories tend to point towards each other for the possibility of a credible, holistic consumption analysis. The most useful and all-encompassing consumption theory reviewed is the systems of provision approach advanced by Fine and Leopold (1993), in that the approach aims to be sensitive to the difference between commodities in terms of the economic and social processes and structures by which they become commodities, and thus it can allow one to consider adequately the four requirements identified above for a holistic understanding of the market. This approach is then applied to the western music market with the aim of 1) testing the approach identified, and 2) making a specific comment of the market. The market is found to be characterized historically by three distinct periods, each with distinct systems of provision (i.e. each with the four factors identified above relating to each other in a certain manner). It is proposed that preference formations in the final period identified have been institutionalized to a large extent, and there is a low probability of change occurring. The systems of provision approach is argued to be beneficial in highlighting which aspects of the existing consumption theories are relevant to the market at a point in time, and to what extent. Thus the richness of the approach stems from its ability to gain a holistic understanding, and to identify theoretical discussion topics, such as those concerning political economy. The approach is then applied to the South African music market, using the same historical methodology, in conjunction with current empirical evidence from the market. Doing this allows one to test the generality of the systems of provision approach, and to attempt to make a comment on the South African market. The techniques for obtaining empirical evidence are argued to be sound, but resource constraints prevented the research from reflecting a holistic view of the market. Nonetheless, a rich perspective is provided from interviews with prominent agents in the market, and thus the chapter is argued to provide the beginning of an understanding of preference formations in the South African music market, in which little research has been conducted (Stella, 2005).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Scheckter, Jonathan
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Consumption (Economics) -- Moral and ethical aspects , Music trade -- South Africa , Popular music -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:981 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002715 , Consumption (Economics) -- Moral and ethical aspects , Music trade -- South Africa , Popular music -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis seeks to gain a holistic understanding of consumption issues in the popular music market, such that it needs to account for the influence of 1) technological factors, 2) institutional factors, 3) cultural factors, and 4) an ontological aspect; as these are identified to be the most prominent aspects in the literature on the market. While there is a bourgeoning literature on the market, there has been little formal attempt to link such issues in a comprehensive fashion. The methodology applied provides a critique of the literature on specific consumption theories which have apparent pertinence to the music market. Each of the sociological, psychological, and economic theories (neoclassical and radical) is found to be too generalized to provide such an understanding, in that many issues concerning the music market would need to be eschewed if these theories were to be applied in an orthodox fashion. Moreover, the theories tend to point towards each other for the possibility of a credible, holistic consumption analysis. The most useful and all-encompassing consumption theory reviewed is the systems of provision approach advanced by Fine and Leopold (1993), in that the approach aims to be sensitive to the difference between commodities in terms of the economic and social processes and structures by which they become commodities, and thus it can allow one to consider adequately the four requirements identified above for a holistic understanding of the market. This approach is then applied to the western music market with the aim of 1) testing the approach identified, and 2) making a specific comment of the market. The market is found to be characterized historically by three distinct periods, each with distinct systems of provision (i.e. each with the four factors identified above relating to each other in a certain manner). It is proposed that preference formations in the final period identified have been institutionalized to a large extent, and there is a low probability of change occurring. The systems of provision approach is argued to be beneficial in highlighting which aspects of the existing consumption theories are relevant to the market at a point in time, and to what extent. Thus the richness of the approach stems from its ability to gain a holistic understanding, and to identify theoretical discussion topics, such as those concerning political economy. The approach is then applied to the South African music market, using the same historical methodology, in conjunction with current empirical evidence from the market. Doing this allows one to test the generality of the systems of provision approach, and to attempt to make a comment on the South African market. The techniques for obtaining empirical evidence are argued to be sound, but resource constraints prevented the research from reflecting a holistic view of the market. Nonetheless, a rich perspective is provided from interviews with prominent agents in the market, and thus the chapter is argued to provide the beginning of an understanding of preference formations in the South African music market, in which little research has been conducted (Stella, 2005).
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
A review of the actuaries' capitalisation rate from an economic perspective
- Authors: Turner, Jason
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Keynesian economics , Insurance -- Mathematics , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1961-1991 , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:992 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002727 , Macroeconomics , Keynesian economics , Insurance -- Mathematics , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1961-1991 , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The purpose of this paper was to evaluate if the macroeconomic change that has occurred in the South African economy since the 1980s has been significant enough to justify a re-examination of the actuaries’ capitalisation rate, due to its formulation processes dependence on the macroeconomic situation. The need for the reexamination arises from the use of the capitalisation in the calculation of lump sum awards where even a small change in the rate can have a significant impact on the value of the final award. In order to address the issue an examination of how Keynesian expectations are formulated and an examination of the Government’s macroeconomic policy was conducted to provide the foundation. On this foundation, a trend analysis of the major groups of financial instruments, as well as the current outlooks for the South African economy, was conducted to determine if there was any indication of a significant change in the macroeconomic conditions. The results of the analysis provided a compelling case for the urgent need for the actuaries’ capitalisation rate to be recalculated to account for the changed economic situation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Turner, Jason
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Keynesian economics , Insurance -- Mathematics , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1961-1991 , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:992 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002727 , Macroeconomics , Keynesian economics , Insurance -- Mathematics , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 1961-1991 , South Africa -- Economic policy
- Description: The purpose of this paper was to evaluate if the macroeconomic change that has occurred in the South African economy since the 1980s has been significant enough to justify a re-examination of the actuaries’ capitalisation rate, due to its formulation processes dependence on the macroeconomic situation. The need for the reexamination arises from the use of the capitalisation in the calculation of lump sum awards where even a small change in the rate can have a significant impact on the value of the final award. In order to address the issue an examination of how Keynesian expectations are formulated and an examination of the Government’s macroeconomic policy was conducted to provide the foundation. On this foundation, a trend analysis of the major groups of financial instruments, as well as the current outlooks for the South African economy, was conducted to determine if there was any indication of a significant change in the macroeconomic conditions. The results of the analysis provided a compelling case for the urgent need for the actuaries’ capitalisation rate to be recalculated to account for the changed economic situation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Monetary policy transmission in South Africa: the prime rate-demand for credit phase
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Lehobo, Limakatso
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Bank loans -- South Africa , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Finance -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1128 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020850
- Description: A voluminous literature attempts to explain the various channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through which central banks ultimately achieve price stability. However, most research focuses on interest rate pass-through and the demand for money phase, while there is limited research on the demand for credit. This study endeavours to contribute to the understanding of this neglected phase of monetary policy transmission by exploring the response of the real demand for bank credit by the private sector to changes in the real prime rate from 1990:1 to 2004:4 in South Africa. Firstly, the behaviour of the real prime rate in relation to the repo rate is explored using graphical analysis. The study observes that an increase in the repo rate causes an increase in the real prime rate, such that there is always a margin of three or four percentage points between the two rates. Secondly, using secondary data, the Johansen methodology is used to determine the relationship between the demand for bank credit and its determinants (GDP, inflation, real prime rate and real yield on government bonds). Two co-integrating relationships are found. The Gaussian errors from one co-integrating vector are used to model the Vector Error Correction Model, which provides the short-run dynamics and the long-run results, through the use of Eviews 5 software. The results of the study show that while all other variables are negatively related to the demand for bank credit in the long-run, GDP has a positive influence. In the short-run, yield on government bonds and inflation coefficients depict a positive association, while the coefficients of real prime rate and GDP are negative. The error correction coefficient is -0.32, which implies that a 32% adjustment to equilibrium happens in the demand for bank credit in a quarter and that the complete adjustment takes about three quarters to complete. Thirdly, the generalised impulse responses results indicate that the impact on the real prime rate affects the demand for bank credit from the first quarter. The study concludes that the real prime rate has a negative impact on the demand for credit both in the short-run and long-run.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Asset prices and inflation-targeting : implications for South Africa
- Authors: Cosser, Leigh Emma
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies , Monetary policy -- Japan , Monetary policy -- United States
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1127 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020849
- Description: An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Cosser, Leigh Emma
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , Banks and banking, Central -- South Africa , Anti-inflationary policies , Monetary policy -- Japan , Monetary policy -- United States
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1127 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020849
- Description: An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Development of the South African monetary banking sector and money market
- Authors: Patel, Aadil Suleman
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:997 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002732 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of developments in the South African monetary banking sector and money market. In the first section, evolution of the political, social and economic environments over the past few decades are discussed to provide the reader with an idea of some factors responsible for the underdeveloped nature of this market. It has been argued that the domestic political and economic landscape is relatively stable. Nevertheless, factors such as Zimbabwe’s political and ensuing economic turmoil, coupled with numerous financial crises in other developing nations have had negative consequences on domestic financial market development and economic growth. The current state of monetary policy is also analysed, within the economic environment, and various policy considerations have been put forth concerning the inflation targeting policy. The thesis then goes on to scrutinise the statutory and institutional environments within which the monetary banking institutions operate. Recent changes in the regulations governing the operations of these institutions are identified, together with the consequences of such laws on banking institutions and possible amendments have been suggested. In particular, a system of Asset Based Reserve Requirements (ABRR) has been recommended, in place of the current cash reserve requirement, to ensure regulators create a level playing field in the financial sector. The system can also provide authorities with the necessary control required to direct funds to the most desirable sectors of the economy. Development of the interbank market and the effect of reduced banking competition on the efficacy of the South African Reserve Bank’s refinancing operations and inflation targeting policy are also considered. Finally, the thesis analyses some effects of financial development on the South African economy, and whether it is in the best interests of the country to pursue financial reforms with such vigour. While financial development may bring South Africa closer to international standards of best practice, the timing and extent of the reforms will be critical to guarantee success.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Patel, Aadil Suleman
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:997 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002732 , South African Reserve Bank , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions , Financial institutions -- South Africa , Money -- South Africa
- Description: This thesis presents a theoretical analysis of developments in the South African monetary banking sector and money market. In the first section, evolution of the political, social and economic environments over the past few decades are discussed to provide the reader with an idea of some factors responsible for the underdeveloped nature of this market. It has been argued that the domestic political and economic landscape is relatively stable. Nevertheless, factors such as Zimbabwe’s political and ensuing economic turmoil, coupled with numerous financial crises in other developing nations have had negative consequences on domestic financial market development and economic growth. The current state of monetary policy is also analysed, within the economic environment, and various policy considerations have been put forth concerning the inflation targeting policy. The thesis then goes on to scrutinise the statutory and institutional environments within which the monetary banking institutions operate. Recent changes in the regulations governing the operations of these institutions are identified, together with the consequences of such laws on banking institutions and possible amendments have been suggested. In particular, a system of Asset Based Reserve Requirements (ABRR) has been recommended, in place of the current cash reserve requirement, to ensure regulators create a level playing field in the financial sector. The system can also provide authorities with the necessary control required to direct funds to the most desirable sectors of the economy. Development of the interbank market and the effect of reduced banking competition on the efficacy of the South African Reserve Bank’s refinancing operations and inflation targeting policy are also considered. Finally, the thesis analyses some effects of financial development on the South African economy, and whether it is in the best interests of the country to pursue financial reforms with such vigour. While financial development may bring South Africa closer to international standards of best practice, the timing and extent of the reforms will be critical to guarantee success.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Interest rate behaviour in a more transparent South African monetary policy environment
- Authors: Ballim, Goolam Hoosen
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1034 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004462 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: South Africa introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework in 2000. This marked a sizable shift in monetary policy management from the previous "eclectic" approach and the explicit focus on M3 money supply before that. The study appraises the effectiveness of monetary policy under this new dispensation. However, the analysis does not centre on inflation outcomes, which can be a measure of effectiveness because they are the overriding objective of the South African Reserve Bank in effect, it is possible to have a target-friendly inflation rate for a length of time despite monetary policy that is ambiguous and encourages unpredictability in market interest rates. However, persistent policy opaqueness can, over time, damage a favourable inflation scenario. For instance, if the public is unsure about the Reserve Bank's desired inflation target, price setting in the wage and goods markets may eventually produce an inflation outcome that is higher than the Bank may have intended. Rather, this study adjudicates the effectiveness of monetary policy within the context of policy transparency, which is an intrinsic part of the inflation targeting framework. The study looks at the extent to which monetary policy transparency has enhanced both the anticipatory nature of the market's response to policy actions and the force that policy has on all interest rates in the financial system, particularly long-term rates. These concepts are important because through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the more deft market participants are at anticipating future Reserve Bank policy the greater the Bank's ability to steady the economy before the actual policy event. With the aid of regression models to estimate the response of market rates to policy changes, the results show that there is significant movement in market rates in anticipation of policy action, rather than on the day of the event or the day after. Indeed, the estimates for market rates movement on the day of and even the day after the policy action are generally minute. For instance, the R157 long-term government bond yield changes by a significant 41 basis points in response to a one percentage point change in the Reserve Bank's benchmark repo rate in the period between the last policy action and the day preceding the current action. In contrast, the R157 bond yield changes by an insignificant 2 basis points on the day of the current repo rate change and about 1 basis point the day after the current change. The results point to a robust relationship between policy transparency and the market's ability to foresee rate action. If this were not the case, it is likely that there would be persistent market surprise and, hence, noticeable movement in interest rates on the day of the rate action and perhaps even the day after. Another important observation is that monetary policy impacts significantly on both short- and long-term market rates. Again, certifying the robustness of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Ballim, Goolam Hoosen
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1034 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004462 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: South Africa introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework in 2000. This marked a sizable shift in monetary policy management from the previous "eclectic" approach and the explicit focus on M3 money supply before that. The study appraises the effectiveness of monetary policy under this new dispensation. However, the analysis does not centre on inflation outcomes, which can be a measure of effectiveness because they are the overriding objective of the South African Reserve Bank in effect, it is possible to have a target-friendly inflation rate for a length of time despite monetary policy that is ambiguous and encourages unpredictability in market interest rates. However, persistent policy opaqueness can, over time, damage a favourable inflation scenario. For instance, if the public is unsure about the Reserve Bank's desired inflation target, price setting in the wage and goods markets may eventually produce an inflation outcome that is higher than the Bank may have intended. Rather, this study adjudicates the effectiveness of monetary policy within the context of policy transparency, which is an intrinsic part of the inflation targeting framework. The study looks at the extent to which monetary policy transparency has enhanced both the anticipatory nature of the market's response to policy actions and the force that policy has on all interest rates in the financial system, particularly long-term rates. These concepts are important because through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, the more deft market participants are at anticipating future Reserve Bank policy the greater the Bank's ability to steady the economy before the actual policy event. With the aid of regression models to estimate the response of market rates to policy changes, the results show that there is significant movement in market rates in anticipation of policy action, rather than on the day of the event or the day after. Indeed, the estimates for market rates movement on the day of and even the day after the policy action are generally minute. For instance, the R157 long-term government bond yield changes by a significant 41 basis points in response to a one percentage point change in the Reserve Bank's benchmark repo rate in the period between the last policy action and the day preceding the current action. In contrast, the R157 bond yield changes by an insignificant 2 basis points on the day of the current repo rate change and about 1 basis point the day after the current change. The results point to a robust relationship between policy transparency and the market's ability to foresee rate action. If this were not the case, it is likely that there would be persistent market surprise and, hence, noticeable movement in interest rates on the day of the rate action and perhaps even the day after. Another important observation is that monetary policy impacts significantly on both short- and long-term market rates. Again, certifying the robustness of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
The current role of modern portfolio theory in asset management practice in South Africa
- Authors: Garaba, Masimba
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Bank investments -- Mathematical models , Capital assets pricing model , Asset -- Liability management , Money market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:965 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002699 , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Bank investments -- Mathematical models , Capital assets pricing model , Asset -- Liability management , Money market -- South Africa
- Description: This research examines the role that modern portfolio theory (MPT) plays in current South Africa asset management practice in comparison to other portfolio management techniques and security evaluation methods. The purpose of asset management is to pool complementary financial market expertise, in order to generate returns in excess of the market return on the investments of the owners of financial resources that are entrusted to the firm, since the owners of financial resources might not be able to make superior investment decisions on their own. The research presents and discusses the literature pertaining to modern portfolio theory, traditional portfolio theory (fundamental and technical analyses), and behavioural finance theory. The implication of the efficient market hypothesis in relation to all the portfolio management theories is also presented and discussed. In line with a positivist paradigm, the survey research methodology, which combines both qualitative and quantitative aspects, was adopted. The instrument used for data collection was a questionnaire, which was found to be reliable and valid for this research. The questionnaire encompassed the Lickert scale to measure the data. The results of the analysis were interpreted using descriptive statistics. The results of this research suggest that modern portfolio theory does not play a significant role in the management of portfolios and security evaluation in South Africa. South African asset managers regard fundamental analysis as the most significant method of security evaluation in the management of portfolios. Technical analysis and econometric models are regarded as playing a moderate role and complement fundamental analysis whilst behavioural finance models play the least role. This research recommends an integrated portfolio management strategy that incorporates MPT, traditional portfolio theory and behavioural finance models to enhance investor value and protection.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Garaba, Masimba
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Bank investments -- Mathematical models , Capital assets pricing model , Asset -- Liability management , Money market -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:965 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002699 , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investments -- South Africa , Bank investments -- Mathematical models , Capital assets pricing model , Asset -- Liability management , Money market -- South Africa
- Description: This research examines the role that modern portfolio theory (MPT) plays in current South Africa asset management practice in comparison to other portfolio management techniques and security evaluation methods. The purpose of asset management is to pool complementary financial market expertise, in order to generate returns in excess of the market return on the investments of the owners of financial resources that are entrusted to the firm, since the owners of financial resources might not be able to make superior investment decisions on their own. The research presents and discusses the literature pertaining to modern portfolio theory, traditional portfolio theory (fundamental and technical analyses), and behavioural finance theory. The implication of the efficient market hypothesis in relation to all the portfolio management theories is also presented and discussed. In line with a positivist paradigm, the survey research methodology, which combines both qualitative and quantitative aspects, was adopted. The instrument used for data collection was a questionnaire, which was found to be reliable and valid for this research. The questionnaire encompassed the Lickert scale to measure the data. The results of the analysis were interpreted using descriptive statistics. The results of this research suggest that modern portfolio theory does not play a significant role in the management of portfolios and security evaluation in South Africa. South African asset managers regard fundamental analysis as the most significant method of security evaluation in the management of portfolios. Technical analysis and econometric models are regarded as playing a moderate role and complement fundamental analysis whilst behavioural finance models play the least role. This research recommends an integrated portfolio management strategy that incorporates MPT, traditional portfolio theory and behavioural finance models to enhance investor value and protection.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Using aspects of game theory for enhanced stakeholder participation perspectives in integrated water resource management: a Kat River Valley case study
- Authors: Mbatha, Cyril
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Water resources development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley -- Management , Economic development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley , Game theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:971 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002705 , Water resources development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley -- Management , Economic development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley , Game theory
- Description: South Africa is a water poor region and yet, like in many other developing countries, water resources are a valuable production input in socially important industries such as agriculture and mining (Nieuwoudt et al., 2004:162-182). With a mean annual rainfall and runoff of 502mm and 42mm (420m³ per hectare per annum) respectively, Briers and Powell (1993:1) speculate that water shortages will limit South Africa’s economic development in the twenty-first century. In response to the challenges of water resource scarcity and socio-economic inequalities, in 1997 the South African Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF), following international trends, formulated a National Water Policy (NWP) based on Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) principles (Palmer et al., 2003). The main objectives of the NWP (1997) are to protect national water resources from degradation, provide economically disadvantaged communities with access to water resources and promote economic development, through the devolution of water management responsibilities to locally established water institutions (NWP, 1997). The pursuit of these objectives requires a thorough investigation of biophysical, sociopolitical and economic characteristics of the demarcated water areas. For such an investigation to provide accurate and locally relevant results, broad stakeholder participation is of paramount importance. The thesis discusses economic measures required in pursuing enhanced stakeholder participation levels at local levels. A socio-economic survey investigation describing major participation trends against reported property rights and Willingness to Pay values was conducted in the Kat River Valley, Eastern Cape province. From the investigation, observed participation trends driven by economic interests were identified and used in recommendations proposed for the policy implementation process. Using game theoretic arguments as guidelines in soliciting cooperative behaviour in the use and consumption of common resources (Ostrom, 1990), the thesis proposes the introduction of water related public works projects as employment creating vehicles for individuals and communities targeted for economic empowerment and participation in the water policy. However, for sustainable stakeholder participation levels, it is argued that the employment positions created through the projects need to be designed in a manner that would encourage an evolution of long-term relationships between stakeholders and the water management institutions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
- Authors: Mbatha, Cyril
- Date: 2005
- Subjects: Water resources development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley -- Management , Economic development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley , Game theory
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:971 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002705 , Water resources development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley -- Management , Economic development -- Case studies , Water-supply -- Government policy -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa -- Kat River Valley , Game theory
- Description: South Africa is a water poor region and yet, like in many other developing countries, water resources are a valuable production input in socially important industries such as agriculture and mining (Nieuwoudt et al., 2004:162-182). With a mean annual rainfall and runoff of 502mm and 42mm (420m³ per hectare per annum) respectively, Briers and Powell (1993:1) speculate that water shortages will limit South Africa’s economic development in the twenty-first century. In response to the challenges of water resource scarcity and socio-economic inequalities, in 1997 the South African Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (DWAF), following international trends, formulated a National Water Policy (NWP) based on Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) principles (Palmer et al., 2003). The main objectives of the NWP (1997) are to protect national water resources from degradation, provide economically disadvantaged communities with access to water resources and promote economic development, through the devolution of water management responsibilities to locally established water institutions (NWP, 1997). The pursuit of these objectives requires a thorough investigation of biophysical, sociopolitical and economic characteristics of the demarcated water areas. For such an investigation to provide accurate and locally relevant results, broad stakeholder participation is of paramount importance. The thesis discusses economic measures required in pursuing enhanced stakeholder participation levels at local levels. A socio-economic survey investigation describing major participation trends against reported property rights and Willingness to Pay values was conducted in the Kat River Valley, Eastern Cape province. From the investigation, observed participation trends driven by economic interests were identified and used in recommendations proposed for the policy implementation process. Using game theoretic arguments as guidelines in soliciting cooperative behaviour in the use and consumption of common resources (Ostrom, 1990), the thesis proposes the introduction of water related public works projects as employment creating vehicles for individuals and communities targeted for economic empowerment and participation in the water policy. However, for sustainable stakeholder participation levels, it is argued that the employment positions created through the projects need to be designed in a manner that would encourage an evolution of long-term relationships between stakeholders and the water management institutions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2005
Price discovery, price behaviour, and efficiency of selected grain commodities traded on the agricultural products division of the JSE securities exchange
- Authors: Viljoen, Christo
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stock exchanges -- South Africa International economic relations Primary commodities -- South Africa Grain trade -- South Africa Financial futures -- South Africa Price regulation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:952 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002686
- Description: Agricultural commodity derivatives were first introduced in South Africa in 1996 after the deregulation of the former marketing system. In the context of its proposed functions, namely price discovery and risk management, the question arose as to whether the futures market developed over time to performed its role efficiently. According to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) an efficient market is one that accurately incorporates all information available at any point in time. The purpose of the research was to address the issue of price discovery efficiency, firstly, focusing on the weak-form methodology. Secondly, considering the behaviour of futures prices over time, the study addressed the concern of anomalies in daily returns – phenomena contradictory to the EMH by implication. Thirdly, as a means of defining the sources of inefficiency, the role of scheduled public information and its impact on futures prices was examined. Therefore, the primary objective of the research was to investigate and identify the main components of agricultural futures market inefficiency within the unique price formation structure of South African grain markets. The assessment of this problem is important in terms of evaluating the growth and development of the futures market for different grain commodities to date. The Exchange needs to review rules and regulations on a frequent basis in order to ensure proper functioning at all times especially in the case of a relatively new and fast growing market. The study contributed to the knowledge of understanding the price adjustment process and its implications for market efficiency in the context of the three grain markets considered. The weak-form efficiency was tested using a co-integration based model. Analysing daily spot and futures prices of white maize, yellow maize, and wheat, results indicated that all three markets were efficient and unbiased. Non-parametric tests revealed the significant presence of day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects in the futures returns of the three commodities. Further non-parametric analyses suggested a high degree of uncertainty in futures returns around scheduled agricultural and macroeconomic information release dates also contributing significantly to the identified anomalies. It was concluded that (1) the markets’ ability to anticipate the contents of future information to be released, (2) the current skewed size distribution of broking members, (3) the significant role of the R/$ exchange rate in the price formation process of South African grains and, therefore, (4) the relationship to and influence of the broader economy enhanced the return effects (anomalies) creating opportunity for profitable arbitrage. This conclusion was mainly attributed to South Africa’s status as a price-taker in the world grain complex as well as the relatively short existence of the local agricultural futures markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004
- Authors: Viljoen, Christo
- Date: 2004
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange Stock exchanges -- South Africa International economic relations Primary commodities -- South Africa Grain trade -- South Africa Financial futures -- South Africa Price regulation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:952 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002686
- Description: Agricultural commodity derivatives were first introduced in South Africa in 1996 after the deregulation of the former marketing system. In the context of its proposed functions, namely price discovery and risk management, the question arose as to whether the futures market developed over time to performed its role efficiently. According to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) an efficient market is one that accurately incorporates all information available at any point in time. The purpose of the research was to address the issue of price discovery efficiency, firstly, focusing on the weak-form methodology. Secondly, considering the behaviour of futures prices over time, the study addressed the concern of anomalies in daily returns – phenomena contradictory to the EMH by implication. Thirdly, as a means of defining the sources of inefficiency, the role of scheduled public information and its impact on futures prices was examined. Therefore, the primary objective of the research was to investigate and identify the main components of agricultural futures market inefficiency within the unique price formation structure of South African grain markets. The assessment of this problem is important in terms of evaluating the growth and development of the futures market for different grain commodities to date. The Exchange needs to review rules and regulations on a frequent basis in order to ensure proper functioning at all times especially in the case of a relatively new and fast growing market. The study contributed to the knowledge of understanding the price adjustment process and its implications for market efficiency in the context of the three grain markets considered. The weak-form efficiency was tested using a co-integration based model. Analysing daily spot and futures prices of white maize, yellow maize, and wheat, results indicated that all three markets were efficient and unbiased. Non-parametric tests revealed the significant presence of day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects in the futures returns of the three commodities. Further non-parametric analyses suggested a high degree of uncertainty in futures returns around scheduled agricultural and macroeconomic information release dates also contributing significantly to the identified anomalies. It was concluded that (1) the markets’ ability to anticipate the contents of future information to be released, (2) the current skewed size distribution of broking members, (3) the significant role of the R/$ exchange rate in the price formation process of South African grains and, therefore, (4) the relationship to and influence of the broader economy enhanced the return effects (anomalies) creating opportunity for profitable arbitrage. This conclusion was mainly attributed to South Africa’s status as a price-taker in the world grain complex as well as the relatively short existence of the local agricultural futures markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2004