An empirical analysis of the asset price monetary policy transmission channel in South Africa
- Authors: Du Preez, Wilhelmus Petrus
- Date: 2021-10
- Subjects: Monetary policy South Africa , Banks and banking, Central South Africa , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) South Africa , Capital assets pricing model , Securities South Africa , Stocks Prices South Africa , Repurchase agreements South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/190318 , vital:44983
- Description: The asset pricing channel of monetary policy transmission breeds an interesting study. There has been an ongoing debate to determine whether monetary policy committees should directly influence the asset pricing channel through changes in the central bank control interest rate or whether monetary policy committees should refrain from targeting the asset pricing channel to meet their policy objectives. The study aims to critically analysis the asset pricing channel, firstly on a global context to set the scene and then to critically focus on the study performed by Muroyiwa et al. (2017) who conducted a study on the South African monetary policy and its interdependence on the stock market through utilisation of an SVAR model. It was concluded that monetary policy does significantly influence stock prices. The purpose of this study is to build on the results which have been formed by Muroyiwa et al. (2017) and to expand on the period under analysis which encapsulates 1999:01 to 2007:12 in order to conclude whether there are conflicting conclusions or conclusions which build on what has already been done. The results from the research shows that when the monetary policy committee decides to influence changes in the repo rate, the repo rate will have a direct effect on the asset markets, the indexes that were used to represent the asset market are the all share index, industrial 15 index and the financial 15 index. Furthermore. The study which has expanded the period under analysis has supplemented and built on the results provided by Muroyiwa et al. (2017). , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10
- Authors: Du Preez, Wilhelmus Petrus
- Date: 2021-10
- Subjects: Monetary policy South Africa , Banks and banking, Central South Africa , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) South Africa , Capital assets pricing model , Securities South Africa , Stocks Prices South Africa , Repurchase agreements South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/190318 , vital:44983
- Description: The asset pricing channel of monetary policy transmission breeds an interesting study. There has been an ongoing debate to determine whether monetary policy committees should directly influence the asset pricing channel through changes in the central bank control interest rate or whether monetary policy committees should refrain from targeting the asset pricing channel to meet their policy objectives. The study aims to critically analysis the asset pricing channel, firstly on a global context to set the scene and then to critically focus on the study performed by Muroyiwa et al. (2017) who conducted a study on the South African monetary policy and its interdependence on the stock market through utilisation of an SVAR model. It was concluded that monetary policy does significantly influence stock prices. The purpose of this study is to build on the results which have been formed by Muroyiwa et al. (2017) and to expand on the period under analysis which encapsulates 1999:01 to 2007:12 in order to conclude whether there are conflicting conclusions or conclusions which build on what has already been done. The results from the research shows that when the monetary policy committee decides to influence changes in the repo rate, the repo rate will have a direct effect on the asset markets, the indexes that were used to represent the asset market are the all share index, industrial 15 index and the financial 15 index. Furthermore. The study which has expanded the period under analysis has supplemented and built on the results provided by Muroyiwa et al. (2017). , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10
An empirical analysis of the interplay among bank competition, bank stability and regulation: a case study of banks in Zimbabwe
- Nyamuronda, Gracious Varayidzo
- Authors: Nyamuronda, Gracious Varayidzo
- Date: 2023-03-31
- Subjects: Capital adequacy ratio , Autoregression (Statistics) , Panel analysis , Competition Zimbabwe , Banks and banking Zimbabwe , Bank regulation , Economic stabilization Zimbabwe
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419473 , vital:71647
- Description: This study empirically examined the interconnection among bank competition, regulation and stability of eighteen Zimbabwean banks during the period 2011-2017. Zscore, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAD), and Loans market share and Deposits market share which are proxies for stability, regulation and competition respectively were examined firstly using the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. Model 1 used loans market share as a proxy for competition and model 2 used deposits market share instead. The stability test using Eigenvalue Stability Condition showed that the PVAR model is unstable. Secondly, the above variables and five bank specific variables (i.e., credit risk, management efficiency, liquidity, return on assets and bank size) were estimated using the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) model. The study documents that competition positively contributed to stability and regulation negatively influenced the stability of the Zimbabwean banks. Meanwhile, bank size and credit risk have a negative relationship with stability; management efficiency and liquidity have a positive relationship. Return On Assets has a negative and positive relationship with stability in model 1 and model 2, respectively. The findings implied that to enhance stability, banks must experience a competitive environment, reasonably low minimum capital requirements and cautiously designed regulatory frameworks. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-03-31
- Authors: Nyamuronda, Gracious Varayidzo
- Date: 2023-03-31
- Subjects: Capital adequacy ratio , Autoregression (Statistics) , Panel analysis , Competition Zimbabwe , Banks and banking Zimbabwe , Bank regulation , Economic stabilization Zimbabwe
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419473 , vital:71647
- Description: This study empirically examined the interconnection among bank competition, regulation and stability of eighteen Zimbabwean banks during the period 2011-2017. Zscore, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAD), and Loans market share and Deposits market share which are proxies for stability, regulation and competition respectively were examined firstly using the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. Model 1 used loans market share as a proxy for competition and model 2 used deposits market share instead. The stability test using Eigenvalue Stability Condition showed that the PVAR model is unstable. Secondly, the above variables and five bank specific variables (i.e., credit risk, management efficiency, liquidity, return on assets and bank size) were estimated using the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) model. The study documents that competition positively contributed to stability and regulation negatively influenced the stability of the Zimbabwean banks. Meanwhile, bank size and credit risk have a negative relationship with stability; management efficiency and liquidity have a positive relationship. Return On Assets has a negative and positive relationship with stability in model 1 and model 2, respectively. The findings implied that to enhance stability, banks must experience a competitive environment, reasonably low minimum capital requirements and cautiously designed regulatory frameworks. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-03-31
An empirical investigation into the determinants of stock market behaviour in South Africa
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Olalere, Durodola Oludamola
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:998 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002733 , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Macroeconomics -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: The argument with regards to whether macro-economic fundamentals determine stock market behaviour is very important because of the roles it plays in an economy. Such roles include: pooling and trading of risks, mobilization of savings, provision of liquidity and allocation of capital. However, the stock market will only perform such roles effectively if the macro-economic environment is conducive. This study examined the behaviour of the All Share Index (ALSI) and market capitalization on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in response to changes in the domestic and international macro-economic fundamentals such as the consumer price index, rand-dollar real exchange rates, domestic GDP, yield on South African government bonds, yield on United States government bonds and United States GDP. The study used cointegration and error correction techniques proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) to test for long run relationship. Two separate models were estimated and results obtained show that the two proxies for the stock market behaviour (All share Index and market capitalization) are true endogenous variables, but react differently to economic fundamentals. The consumer price index has a significant negative impact on the JSE share price index while market capitalization is determined predominantly by the yield on South African government bonds. The exchange rate seems to have had little or no influence on the share price index, but becomes negative and significant in the case of market capitalization. The yield on United States government bonds also produced a strong influence on both the share price index and market capitalization. While it has a negative significant impact on share prices, it produced a positive significant impact on market capitalization. In order to ascertain whether the South African interest rate or the United States interest rate is more important in explaining the share price and market capitalization, each of the variables were estimated in the model separately, the result obtained reveals that the United States interest rate is more important than the domestic interest rate in explaining the share price and market capitalization on the JSE. This implies that investors need to observe the USA interest rate before investing in South African equities. A comparison of the responses of share price index and market capitalization to impulses from the macro-economic variables tested reveals that both proxies elicit a positive response from aggregate output. The share price index responds more significantly to impulses from output growth than the market capitalization, meaning that, as aggregate production increases, the share price index tends to respond positively and quickly. The exchange rate produced mixed result from the two proxies, while it produced a positive response from the market capitalization; an initial positive response was noted in the share price index that immediately turned negative. Another glaring contrast was identified in the response of both proxies to impulses from the United States interest rate. The share price index responded positively while the market capitalization produced a negative response. This finding reveals that the two proxies actually respond differently to macro-economic variables. The variance decomposition of both stock prices and market capitalization reveals that the yield on United States government bonds has a more significant absorption potential than the South African government bonds. However, the absorption process is slower in the case of the market capitalization. The exchange rate has a greater impact on the market capitalization than stock prices. The overall assessment shows that share prices respond faster than market capitalization to macro-economic fundamentals. The study also shows that the increased openness of the South African economy by way of relaxation of the exchange control on capital account transaction has allowed the USA market to play a crucial role in equity prices in South Africa. Three main policy recommendations results from the study. Firstly, if inflation is well monitored, then the local equity market is bound to perform strongly resulting in strong shares earning growth. Secondly, the exchange rate should be made to be less volatile so that long term investment plans across borders can be further enhanced. Thirdly, financial analyst and investors in South Africa need to analyse macro-economic developments in the United States before investing in equities in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An evaluation of the Nelson Mandela Metropole as a location to attract investment
- Authors: Nonxuba, Philile Zipho
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:973 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002707 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The Nelson Mandela Metropole is the largest contributor to the Eastern Cape Province’s economy and its share of the production of the Eastern Cape is about 41, 3 % per annum. This requires that the competitiveness of the Metropole be improved in order to enable it to meet the challenges of the Province. The objective of the GEAR policy strategy places a focus on the leading coastal industrial locations of South Africa. Furthermore, the national government has shifted the responsibility of service delivery to local governments in an effort to reinforce the integrated development planning process in municipalities. To meet those challenges, the Metropole has focused its attention on improving local resources. To enhance the performance of the manufacturing industry of the Metropole, it is necessary to ensure that the Metropole has locational attributes to attract new investment. Such attributes include creation of closely located industries. This will help the firms to engage in competition as well as engage in co-operative activities among themselves. The study employs a variety of theories to highlight the need to enhance productivity of industries in order to attract new investment. These theories include the new (endogenous) growth theory that argues that productivity growth is determined by introduction of new technologies. Such technologies accrue because ideas that contribute to their development are nonrival, and thus their creation has a fixed cost and zero marginal cost. The property of fixed cost in the creation of ideas results in the emergence of increasing returns to scale. The Porter’s Diamond framework is used in the study to take the issue of productivity growth further. Its thrust is that in particular nations some industries experience high productivity growth rates. It further argues that the locational attributes are responsible for these industries in registering high productivity growth levels. These attributes include the creation of advanced resources such as a skilled labour force. The data obtained from the survey of the research on the manufacturing industries forms part of this study. The findings of the survey reveal that although the manufacturing sector of the South African region has registered some significant success, there is still some room for improving its competitiveness. It revealed that development of the local markets through competition and cooperation among the industries would help to render these industries internationally competitive. This study concludes with some recommendations. These recommendations place emphasis on improvement of infrastructure, quality of labour force, and development of the region’s market. In order to carry out the recommendations effectively, government policy has to be repositioned so as to enhance its visibility among the stakeholders in the economy. Of importance is to ensure the promotion of policy that supports geographically concentrated businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Nonxuba, Philile Zipho
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:973 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002707 , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) , Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (Eastern Cape, South Africa) -- Economic conditions , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Manufacturing industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Business enterprises -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Investments -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Description: The Nelson Mandela Metropole is the largest contributor to the Eastern Cape Province’s economy and its share of the production of the Eastern Cape is about 41, 3 % per annum. This requires that the competitiveness of the Metropole be improved in order to enable it to meet the challenges of the Province. The objective of the GEAR policy strategy places a focus on the leading coastal industrial locations of South Africa. Furthermore, the national government has shifted the responsibility of service delivery to local governments in an effort to reinforce the integrated development planning process in municipalities. To meet those challenges, the Metropole has focused its attention on improving local resources. To enhance the performance of the manufacturing industry of the Metropole, it is necessary to ensure that the Metropole has locational attributes to attract new investment. Such attributes include creation of closely located industries. This will help the firms to engage in competition as well as engage in co-operative activities among themselves. The study employs a variety of theories to highlight the need to enhance productivity of industries in order to attract new investment. These theories include the new (endogenous) growth theory that argues that productivity growth is determined by introduction of new technologies. Such technologies accrue because ideas that contribute to their development are nonrival, and thus their creation has a fixed cost and zero marginal cost. The property of fixed cost in the creation of ideas results in the emergence of increasing returns to scale. The Porter’s Diamond framework is used in the study to take the issue of productivity growth further. Its thrust is that in particular nations some industries experience high productivity growth rates. It further argues that the locational attributes are responsible for these industries in registering high productivity growth levels. These attributes include the creation of advanced resources such as a skilled labour force. The data obtained from the survey of the research on the manufacturing industries forms part of this study. The findings of the survey reveal that although the manufacturing sector of the South African region has registered some significant success, there is still some room for improving its competitiveness. It revealed that development of the local markets through competition and cooperation among the industries would help to render these industries internationally competitive. This study concludes with some recommendations. These recommendations place emphasis on improvement of infrastructure, quality of labour force, and development of the region’s market. In order to carry out the recommendations effectively, government policy has to be repositioned so as to enhance its visibility among the stakeholders in the economy. Of importance is to ensure the promotion of policy that supports geographically concentrated businesses.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
An evaluation of the socio-economic costs and benefits of the invasive Rubus (Blackberry/Bramble) genus at selected sites in South Africa
- Authors: Mason, Brett Anthony
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Rubus South Africa Cost effectiveness , Invasive plants South Africa Cost effectiveness , Rubus Economic aspects South Africa , Ecology Economic aspects South Africa , Rubus Ecology South Africa , Environmental economics South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/191931 , vital:45180
- Description: Rubus L. (brambles, blackberries, raspberries, or dewberries) are a globally recognised genus due to the edible fruit and negative impacts they can have as invasive species. There are at least 23 species of Rubus subgenus Rubus in South Africa. These include native, alien, naturalised alien, and invasive alien species. The invasive Rubus species are becoming an increasing problem in South Africa with experts in invasion biology urging caution regarding the genus (Henderson, 2011). The taxonomy of indigenous, alien and alien invasive species of Rubus are poorly understood and therefore efforts to understand the genus, the impacts and solutions to those impacts have been very limited (Stirton, 1981; Henderson, 2011; Sochor et al., 2018a). There has also been little research conducted on the economic or ecological impacts on the species or genus of species in South Africa (du Plessis et al., 1984; Botha, 2005), and yet species in the genus have been earmarked for prioritization by invasive species legislation. The potential value of certain species as well as the cost associated with their impacts could potentially create a complex conflict of interest scenario which has not been investigated. This study is an effort to inform future policy decisions regarding this suite of species by investigating the economic impacts of the invasive Rubus species. A method was developed unique to the study that incorporated research tools from environmental economics and geography to identify the nature of interactions between economic agents, experts, and alien and invasive Rubus species in South Africa. Two questionnaires were developed to generate economic data and ground proofing was used to develop geographic data. One questionnaire was directed specifically at researchers and academics that attended the 46th National Symposium on Biological Invasions that took place between 15–17 May 2019, at Waterval Country Lodge, Tulbagh and the other an economic agent questionnaire for economic agents that met strict and selective criteria relating to the impact of the six invasive Rubus species on their economic activity. Both questionnaires were designed with a mixed methods approach in mind. The ground proofing was aimed at understanding the composition and distribution of Rubus species at the selected sites: Cathcart and Hogsback (The Eastern Cape Province), Clarens (Free State Province), and Underberg (KwaZulu-Natal Province). The study established that all economic impacts of invasive Rubus species at selected sites are externalities. Invasive Rubus species in South Africa can be attributed as (i) harbouring vermin, (ii) impeding human and animal livestock, (iii) reducing crop yields, (iv) encroaching on grazing land, (v) presenting fire hazards, and (vi) negatively impacting fire regimes. These species also (i) provide berries that are retailed on a commercial level, or have been, (ii) that are utilized for personal consumption, (iii) provide an ingredient for alcohol brewing processes, and (iv) could potentially facilitate forest regeneration. The invasive species are infrequently browsed by certain livestock and far as we could ascertain do not provide ingredients for anti-inflammatory drugs or modern cosmetics in South Africa, as they do in other regions of the globe. The costs associated with the invasive species can be presented dichotomously; the estimated private cost-benefit ratio, for costs and benefits incurred or enjoyed by 18 private economic agents, stands at 0.33:1. A private-public benefit-cost ratio, that incorporates both private and public costs and benefits, stands at 13,5:1. The private-public benefit-cost includes public expenditure, or government control measures, directed at invasive Rubus and shifts the benefit-cost ratio so that costs now markedly dominate the estimated benefits. The benefits per hectare uncovered in this study stand at R13.14/ha. The private costs stand at R4.32/ha and a holistic cost, including both private and public expenditure, stands at R177,43/ha. The monetary values, when expressed per hectare, are misleading. This is due to a large standard deviation in the spread of benefits received. The benefits are enjoyed by a small number of the already small sample of respondents. The costs and benefits are not uniformly distributed across regions assessed. All benefits in this study accrue to economic agents in the Free State Province, whilst most of the costs accrued to economic agents in KwaZulu-Natal Province. The benefits appear to be primarily derived from an alien species, Rubus sect. Arguti. Management of the 6 species of invasive Rubus could be optimised by the prioritisation of those regions that incur the highest cost and derive the lowest benefit, in this case KwaZulu-Natal Province. Likewise, those regions with the highest benefits and lowest costs, the Free State Province, could provide sites for increased use and beneficiation of berries from invasive species. Management of individual species may prove difficult, given the similar morphologies, and thus, (i) either specialised training for those engaged in control must be instituted, (ii) all species of alien Rubus should be earmarked for management, or (iii) highly specific biocontrol agents for the most problematic species must be found. , Thesis (MEcon) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
- Authors: Mason, Brett Anthony
- Date: 2021-10-29
- Subjects: Rubus South Africa Cost effectiveness , Invasive plants South Africa Cost effectiveness , Rubus Economic aspects South Africa , Ecology Economic aspects South Africa , Rubus Ecology South Africa , Environmental economics South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/191931 , vital:45180
- Description: Rubus L. (brambles, blackberries, raspberries, or dewberries) are a globally recognised genus due to the edible fruit and negative impacts they can have as invasive species. There are at least 23 species of Rubus subgenus Rubus in South Africa. These include native, alien, naturalised alien, and invasive alien species. The invasive Rubus species are becoming an increasing problem in South Africa with experts in invasion biology urging caution regarding the genus (Henderson, 2011). The taxonomy of indigenous, alien and alien invasive species of Rubus are poorly understood and therefore efforts to understand the genus, the impacts and solutions to those impacts have been very limited (Stirton, 1981; Henderson, 2011; Sochor et al., 2018a). There has also been little research conducted on the economic or ecological impacts on the species or genus of species in South Africa (du Plessis et al., 1984; Botha, 2005), and yet species in the genus have been earmarked for prioritization by invasive species legislation. The potential value of certain species as well as the cost associated with their impacts could potentially create a complex conflict of interest scenario which has not been investigated. This study is an effort to inform future policy decisions regarding this suite of species by investigating the economic impacts of the invasive Rubus species. A method was developed unique to the study that incorporated research tools from environmental economics and geography to identify the nature of interactions between economic agents, experts, and alien and invasive Rubus species in South Africa. Two questionnaires were developed to generate economic data and ground proofing was used to develop geographic data. One questionnaire was directed specifically at researchers and academics that attended the 46th National Symposium on Biological Invasions that took place between 15–17 May 2019, at Waterval Country Lodge, Tulbagh and the other an economic agent questionnaire for economic agents that met strict and selective criteria relating to the impact of the six invasive Rubus species on their economic activity. Both questionnaires were designed with a mixed methods approach in mind. The ground proofing was aimed at understanding the composition and distribution of Rubus species at the selected sites: Cathcart and Hogsback (The Eastern Cape Province), Clarens (Free State Province), and Underberg (KwaZulu-Natal Province). The study established that all economic impacts of invasive Rubus species at selected sites are externalities. Invasive Rubus species in South Africa can be attributed as (i) harbouring vermin, (ii) impeding human and animal livestock, (iii) reducing crop yields, (iv) encroaching on grazing land, (v) presenting fire hazards, and (vi) negatively impacting fire regimes. These species also (i) provide berries that are retailed on a commercial level, or have been, (ii) that are utilized for personal consumption, (iii) provide an ingredient for alcohol brewing processes, and (iv) could potentially facilitate forest regeneration. The invasive species are infrequently browsed by certain livestock and far as we could ascertain do not provide ingredients for anti-inflammatory drugs or modern cosmetics in South Africa, as they do in other regions of the globe. The costs associated with the invasive species can be presented dichotomously; the estimated private cost-benefit ratio, for costs and benefits incurred or enjoyed by 18 private economic agents, stands at 0.33:1. A private-public benefit-cost ratio, that incorporates both private and public costs and benefits, stands at 13,5:1. The private-public benefit-cost includes public expenditure, or government control measures, directed at invasive Rubus and shifts the benefit-cost ratio so that costs now markedly dominate the estimated benefits. The benefits per hectare uncovered in this study stand at R13.14/ha. The private costs stand at R4.32/ha and a holistic cost, including both private and public expenditure, stands at R177,43/ha. The monetary values, when expressed per hectare, are misleading. This is due to a large standard deviation in the spread of benefits received. The benefits are enjoyed by a small number of the already small sample of respondents. The costs and benefits are not uniformly distributed across regions assessed. All benefits in this study accrue to economic agents in the Free State Province, whilst most of the costs accrued to economic agents in KwaZulu-Natal Province. The benefits appear to be primarily derived from an alien species, Rubus sect. Arguti. Management of the 6 species of invasive Rubus could be optimised by the prioritisation of those regions that incur the highest cost and derive the lowest benefit, in this case KwaZulu-Natal Province. Likewise, those regions with the highest benefits and lowest costs, the Free State Province, could provide sites for increased use and beneficiation of berries from invasive species. Management of individual species may prove difficult, given the similar morphologies, and thus, (i) either specialised training for those engaged in control must be instituted, (ii) all species of alien Rubus should be earmarked for management, or (iii) highly specific biocontrol agents for the most problematic species must be found. , Thesis (MEcon) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2021
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021-10-29
An integrated economic developmental appraisal of the South African mariculture industry
- Authors: Hepburn, Bruce
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Mariculture -- South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:941 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002674 , Mariculture -- South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Description: Current coastal legislative and institutional reformulation has effectively established new principles for the promotion of sustainable, co-ordinated integrated coastal development to be achieved through facilitatory, co-operative management mechanisms. In accordance, collaborative expansion and diversification of mariculture has been identified as a strategic mechanism for realising sustainable coastal development. Present limited foundational understanding regarding the emergent commercial contingent’s economic-institutional structure has constrained the effectiveness of current centralised broad objective formulation based planning techniques. By drawing upon findings of the 2001 National Mariculture Baseline survey, key economic development and institutional components requiring dedicated attention for further realising industry’s inherent growth potential to supply domestic and growing global aquaculture markets are examined in an inductive explorative framework. Attention is also directed towards promoting realisation of collaborative mariculture development initiatives to redress dualistic development disparities in previously marginalised coastal localities. Finally, synthesis between traditional bureaucratic centralised co-ordinated planning and regionalised decentralised implementation orientated capacity building frameworks displaying a greater relevant stakeholder participatory ethos are examined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
- Authors: Hepburn, Bruce
- Date: 2003
- Subjects: Mariculture -- South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: vital:941 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002674 , Mariculture -- South Africa -- Economic aspects
- Description: Current coastal legislative and institutional reformulation has effectively established new principles for the promotion of sustainable, co-ordinated integrated coastal development to be achieved through facilitatory, co-operative management mechanisms. In accordance, collaborative expansion and diversification of mariculture has been identified as a strategic mechanism for realising sustainable coastal development. Present limited foundational understanding regarding the emergent commercial contingent’s economic-institutional structure has constrained the effectiveness of current centralised broad objective formulation based planning techniques. By drawing upon findings of the 2001 National Mariculture Baseline survey, key economic development and institutional components requiring dedicated attention for further realising industry’s inherent growth potential to supply domestic and growing global aquaculture markets are examined in an inductive explorative framework. Attention is also directed towards promoting realisation of collaborative mariculture development initiatives to redress dualistic development disparities in previously marginalised coastal localities. Finally, synthesis between traditional bureaucratic centralised co-ordinated planning and regionalised decentralised implementation orientated capacity building frameworks displaying a greater relevant stakeholder participatory ethos are examined.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2003
An investigation into the impact of fairtrade in South Africa
- Authors: Jari, Bridget
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Competition, Unfair -- Research -- South Africa Price maintenance -- Research -- South Africa Fair trade associations -- South Africa Sustainable development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1006 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002741
- Description: World international trade is moving towards more free trade, through globalization and trade liberalization. These moves are guided by trade theories which state that on an aggregated level, nations involved in free trade should benefit, and further that free trade is fair. However, in practice, contradictory views have been raised, stating that free trade may not necessarily be benefiting all participants equally. Rather, other nations, especially developing nations, have become worse-off after opening up their markets for free trade. On the other hand, many developed nations have benefited substantially from free trade. Among other factors, the difference in benefits is believed to have been influenced by the types of commodities being traded (where developing nations mainly trade in primary goods and developed nations in anufactured goods) and unequal power relations (some nations for example, the EU and the US, still adopt protectionism in their agricultural sector). In order to address market imbalances resulting from free trade, Fairtrade has arisen. Fairtrade aims to improve international trading conditions in order to benefit small-scale farmers and farm workers in the developing nations. The Fairtrade organization further claims that its principles are in line with sustainable development. However, Fairtrade suffers a credibility gap because there is a lack of independent research to support their claims. To date in South Africa, there is little research examining the claims of the Fairtrade organization. In order to contribute to the Fairtrade discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the validity of Fairtrade‘s claims that it contributes towards sustainable development. The study utilised primary data, which was collected from ten commercial farms and two small-scale farmer cooperatives located in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces that are/were Fairtrade certified. The main reason for including commercial farmers and small-scale farmer cooperatives in the study was for comparing relative impacts in the two Fairtrade structures. The data was then analysed using a sustainable livelihoods framework, which was developed in the study. The study focussed on investigating the impact of Fairtrade tools, which are minimum prices, premiums, pre-financing and support for long-term relationships, on its intended beneficiaries. Minimum prices offered to producers cover production costs and are above market prices, and Fairtrade premiums are to be invested in developmental projects. Therefore, examining the influence of Fairtrade tools on individuals and communities provides an overview of how Fairtrade influences development. The results of the study show that sampled Fairtrade beneficiaries in South Africa have witnessed substantial positive changes as a result of Fairtrade. The Fairtrade initiative has managed to empower small-scale producers and farm workers, as well as leverage development opportunities for their wider communities. It has supported organizational development in the supply chain, facilitated investment in community development projects and in business-related training. Producers, both commercial and small-scale producers, managed to access a market that offers stable prices, and have gained from minimum prices. Furthermore, small-scale farmers have been allowed an opportunity to expand their business into export markets, and enjoyed an increase in incomes. Fairtrade benefits further trickle down to non-Fairtrade community members, in the form of employment creation and community development. Despite positive effects, Fairtrade producers faced challenges, including high Fairtrade administration costs and a small market for Fairtrade commodities. The study concludes that in the face of challenges, Fairtrade brings economic, social and environmental benefits, but as compared to economic and social development, the impact on environmental development is rather limited. Even though that is the case, Fairtrade offers valuable development opportunities to producers in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: Jari, Bridget
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Competition, Unfair -- Research -- South Africa Price maintenance -- Research -- South Africa Fair trade associations -- South Africa Sustainable development -- Africa, Southern
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1006 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002741
- Description: World international trade is moving towards more free trade, through globalization and trade liberalization. These moves are guided by trade theories which state that on an aggregated level, nations involved in free trade should benefit, and further that free trade is fair. However, in practice, contradictory views have been raised, stating that free trade may not necessarily be benefiting all participants equally. Rather, other nations, especially developing nations, have become worse-off after opening up their markets for free trade. On the other hand, many developed nations have benefited substantially from free trade. Among other factors, the difference in benefits is believed to have been influenced by the types of commodities being traded (where developing nations mainly trade in primary goods and developed nations in anufactured goods) and unequal power relations (some nations for example, the EU and the US, still adopt protectionism in their agricultural sector). In order to address market imbalances resulting from free trade, Fairtrade has arisen. Fairtrade aims to improve international trading conditions in order to benefit small-scale farmers and farm workers in the developing nations. The Fairtrade organization further claims that its principles are in line with sustainable development. However, Fairtrade suffers a credibility gap because there is a lack of independent research to support their claims. To date in South Africa, there is little research examining the claims of the Fairtrade organization. In order to contribute to the Fairtrade discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the validity of Fairtrade‘s claims that it contributes towards sustainable development. The study utilised primary data, which was collected from ten commercial farms and two small-scale farmer cooperatives located in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces that are/were Fairtrade certified. The main reason for including commercial farmers and small-scale farmer cooperatives in the study was for comparing relative impacts in the two Fairtrade structures. The data was then analysed using a sustainable livelihoods framework, which was developed in the study. The study focussed on investigating the impact of Fairtrade tools, which are minimum prices, premiums, pre-financing and support for long-term relationships, on its intended beneficiaries. Minimum prices offered to producers cover production costs and are above market prices, and Fairtrade premiums are to be invested in developmental projects. Therefore, examining the influence of Fairtrade tools on individuals and communities provides an overview of how Fairtrade influences development. The results of the study show that sampled Fairtrade beneficiaries in South Africa have witnessed substantial positive changes as a result of Fairtrade. The Fairtrade initiative has managed to empower small-scale producers and farm workers, as well as leverage development opportunities for their wider communities. It has supported organizational development in the supply chain, facilitated investment in community development projects and in business-related training. Producers, both commercial and small-scale producers, managed to access a market that offers stable prices, and have gained from minimum prices. Furthermore, small-scale farmers have been allowed an opportunity to expand their business into export markets, and enjoyed an increase in incomes. Fairtrade benefits further trickle down to non-Fairtrade community members, in the form of employment creation and community development. Despite positive effects, Fairtrade producers faced challenges, including high Fairtrade administration costs and a small market for Fairtrade commodities. The study concludes that in the face of challenges, Fairtrade brings economic, social and environmental benefits, but as compared to economic and social development, the impact on environmental development is rather limited. Even though that is the case, Fairtrade offers valuable development opportunities to producers in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
An investigation into the validity of life tables used for the calculation of personal injury damages
- Authors: Forshaw, Timothy James
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1077 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008371 , Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Description: Currently in South Africa when an individual is injured due to the acts of another they may claim damages for the losses which they may incur. These can be claimed from a variety of institutions, such as the Road Accident Fund, Workmen's compensation or an individual's private insurance. In all the afore-mentioned cases the calculation of damages are along the same lines, whereby the damages are quantified first, and thereafter reduced to reflect future possibilities that may occur. Traditionally future losses are reduced to reflect the possibility that the claimant may die at an age prior to the loss being incurred. To account for this risk awards for future losses are reduced using standard South African mortality tables. The set of tables currently being used were calculated from the 1985 South African census, and as such encapsulate the mortality of the population at that period. When the tables were calculated no reliable statistics were available for the Black population the result is that the tables currently being used do not contain a sample of the majority of the population. The thesis first examines, in detail, the calculation methods used to arrive at the value for damages to be awarded using the current set of life tables. Thereafter an analysis is conducted looking at differences between racial groups in the country and geographic locations, in order to uncover the mortality differences between groups to confirm or disprove the proposition that the exclusion of the Black population results in lower levels of mortality being reflected in the South African 1984-1986 life tables. This is accompanied by a review of mortality trenps in South African since 1986. Following from the findings of the expected increase in mortality since 1986, alternative life tables shall be used to show what impact these would have on the calculation of damages. Due to the fact that none of the alternatives return satisfactory results, structured settlements shall be reviewed to illustrate how the shortcomings of the lump sum approach can be circumvented, and altogether avoid the problems of out dated life tables being used as a basis for damage calculations. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Authors: Forshaw, Timothy James
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1077 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008371 , Torts -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa , Damages -- South Africa -- Accounting , Mortality -- Tables , Personal injuries -- South Africa
- Description: Currently in South Africa when an individual is injured due to the acts of another they may claim damages for the losses which they may incur. These can be claimed from a variety of institutions, such as the Road Accident Fund, Workmen's compensation or an individual's private insurance. In all the afore-mentioned cases the calculation of damages are along the same lines, whereby the damages are quantified first, and thereafter reduced to reflect future possibilities that may occur. Traditionally future losses are reduced to reflect the possibility that the claimant may die at an age prior to the loss being incurred. To account for this risk awards for future losses are reduced using standard South African mortality tables. The set of tables currently being used were calculated from the 1985 South African census, and as such encapsulate the mortality of the population at that period. When the tables were calculated no reliable statistics were available for the Black population the result is that the tables currently being used do not contain a sample of the majority of the population. The thesis first examines, in detail, the calculation methods used to arrive at the value for damages to be awarded using the current set of life tables. Thereafter an analysis is conducted looking at differences between racial groups in the country and geographic locations, in order to uncover the mortality differences between groups to confirm or disprove the proposition that the exclusion of the Black population results in lower levels of mortality being reflected in the South African 1984-1986 life tables. This is accompanied by a review of mortality trenps in South African since 1986. Following from the findings of the expected increase in mortality since 1986, alternative life tables shall be used to show what impact these would have on the calculation of damages. Due to the fact that none of the alternatives return satisfactory results, structured settlements shall be reviewed to illustrate how the shortcomings of the lump sum approach can be circumvented, and altogether avoid the problems of out dated life tables being used as a basis for damage calculations. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
An investigation of the informal market value chain for prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) in Nelson Mandela Bay, Eastern Cape
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Opuntia ficus-indica -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Alien plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Women heads of households -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Poor -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62894 , vital:28308
- Description: The use of alien plant species as part of the livelihood resources of poor people raises conflicts with national legislation, which views these plants as threats to native plant biodiversity. However, there is also increasing body of literature on the contribution that some of these plants make to the livelihoods of poor people. The level of significance of some alien plant species to livelihoods is mostly highlighted in the case of female market participants who are in a position of household headship. Since most African cultures dictate the role of females as solely being that of homemaker while males are assigned the role household headship and breadwinner, women often find themselves having to shoulder the household responsibilities when the household head is no longer there. This was the case in the Nelson Mandela Bay informal prickly pear market that this study sought to investigate. Even though there were also male participants in the prickly pear market, the majority of participants in the market were female who also mentioned they were the sole breadwinner for their households. This study investigated the economic contribution that the prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) informal market makes to the livelihoods of people living in the Nelson Mandela Bay. The significance of the market’s contribution to their livelihoods was examined through using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. The study revealed that although the prickly pear income was largely supplementary due to it being available for only three months of the year, the income was a safety net resource for the market participants who had limited access to other sources of income. The results also highlighted the reasons people were engaging in the informal prickly pear market. The main reason that was mentioned was unemployment. Through a livelihoods analysis using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, it was revealed that the other factors that were contributing to their unemployment were low levels of education, low levels of marketable skills, and old age. The study revealed through calculations of the estimated economic value of each market activity the potential of the prickly pear to be used as a poverty fighting tool. Although the results of this study only highlight the economic value of the prickly pear to people in a small area compared to the rest of the province and the country, the informal market’s significance still presents a strong case for the establishment of an agroprocessing industry, which would support the production of value-added products. Since the largest populations of the prickly pear in Uitenhage are currently under effective control by the cochineal species, promotion of its economic value instead of eradicating it without considering its value to the livelihoods of the people in the market could also ensure that its populations are kept under control. Job creation in the agroprocessing industry would not only improve the livelihoods of those involved in the market, but would also feed into the national economy instead of taking from it via the costs incurred during clearing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Opuntia ficus-indica -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Alien plants -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Women heads of households -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Poor -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Informal sector (Economics) -- South Africa -- Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality , Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MSc
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62894 , vital:28308
- Description: The use of alien plant species as part of the livelihood resources of poor people raises conflicts with national legislation, which views these plants as threats to native plant biodiversity. However, there is also increasing body of literature on the contribution that some of these plants make to the livelihoods of poor people. The level of significance of some alien plant species to livelihoods is mostly highlighted in the case of female market participants who are in a position of household headship. Since most African cultures dictate the role of females as solely being that of homemaker while males are assigned the role household headship and breadwinner, women often find themselves having to shoulder the household responsibilities when the household head is no longer there. This was the case in the Nelson Mandela Bay informal prickly pear market that this study sought to investigate. Even though there were also male participants in the prickly pear market, the majority of participants in the market were female who also mentioned they were the sole breadwinner for their households. This study investigated the economic contribution that the prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) informal market makes to the livelihoods of people living in the Nelson Mandela Bay. The significance of the market’s contribution to their livelihoods was examined through using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. The study revealed that although the prickly pear income was largely supplementary due to it being available for only three months of the year, the income was a safety net resource for the market participants who had limited access to other sources of income. The results also highlighted the reasons people were engaging in the informal prickly pear market. The main reason that was mentioned was unemployment. Through a livelihoods analysis using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, it was revealed that the other factors that were contributing to their unemployment were low levels of education, low levels of marketable skills, and old age. The study revealed through calculations of the estimated economic value of each market activity the potential of the prickly pear to be used as a poverty fighting tool. Although the results of this study only highlight the economic value of the prickly pear to people in a small area compared to the rest of the province and the country, the informal market’s significance still presents a strong case for the establishment of an agroprocessing industry, which would support the production of value-added products. Since the largest populations of the prickly pear in Uitenhage are currently under effective control by the cochineal species, promotion of its economic value instead of eradicating it without considering its value to the livelihoods of the people in the market could also ensure that its populations are kept under control. Job creation in the agroprocessing industry would not only improve the livelihoods of those involved in the market, but would also feed into the national economy instead of taking from it via the costs incurred during clearing.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Analysis of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic variables and various sector price indices of JSE
- Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: Mapanda, Tungamirai Chisvuvo
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stock price indexes -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/147445 , vital:38637
- Description: Purpose- The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between changes in domestic macroeconomic variables and various indices of the JSE during the full time period, June 1995 to December 2018 and the sub-periods, June 1995 to June 2007 and July 2007 to December 2018. Design/ methodology/ approach- The paper employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model approach to cointegration using monthly data from June 1995 to December 2018. Findings- In terms of the long run, the results show that the coincident indicator measure of domestic economic activity is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. In terms of inflation, the results show no relationship between inflation rate and the various indices for both whole period and June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related. For the real effective exchange rate, only the Consumer Services Index is positively related to the exchange rate in terms of June 1995 to June 2007 sub period. However, JSE All Share Index and JSE Top 40 Index are negatively related to the exchange rate in all study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period, JSE All Share Index, JSE Top 40 Index, Health Care Index and Telecommunications Index are negatively related to interest rate. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, JSE All Share Index and Industrials Index are negatively related to the short term interest rate. For the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are negatively related. In terms of the short run, the coincident indicator is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices for all study periods. Inflation is not significantly related to any index in the whole period. In terms of the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period, Industrials Index and Financials Index are positively related to inflation and in the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Consumer Goods Index, Health Index and Consumer Services Index are negatively related to the inflation rate. The real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly related to the various JSE indices in the different study periods. In terms of the short term interest rate, for the whole period and the June 1995 to June 2007 sub period only the Technology Index is not significantly and negatively related to the short term interest rate, but for the July 2007 to December 2018 sub period, Top 40 Index, Telecommunications Index and Technology Index are positively related to the interest rate. Only the Financial Index is negatively related to short term interest rates during this sub period. Research Limitations- Not a lot literature was found on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the various sector indices of the JSE. Most previous work, in the South African context focused just on the JSE All Share Index. Practical Implications- The findings can help investors diversify their portfolios into indices that benefit from expected changes in macroeconomic variables, such as recessions, rising interest rates, rising inflation or a weakening exchange rate. Alternatively, they can hedge themselves against the negative implications of such macroeconomic changes on portfolio performance. In addition, the findings are important for the monetary authorities to better understand the implications of their policy changes on financial markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Analysis of volatility spillover effects between the South African, regional and world equity markets
- Authors: Mumba, Mabvuto
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Financial crises International finance Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Capital market -- Africa Capital market -- South Africa Foreign exchange rates Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:957 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002691
- Description: The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Mumba, Mabvuto
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Financial crises International finance Stocks -- Prices -- Africa Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa Capital market -- Africa Capital market -- South Africa Foreign exchange rates Africa -- Economic conditions South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:957 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002691
- Description: The current study examines the extent and magnitude by which global and regional shocks are transmitted to the volatility of returns in the stock markets of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Botswana, Mauritius and Egypt. This is done so as to make inferences on the level of the domestic market‟s integration into the regional and world capital markets. By applying multivariate and univariate GARCH models, using weekly data from June 1995 to May 2010, the main empirical findings are threefold. Firstly, the volatility analytical framework finds statistically significant and time-varying volatility spillover effects from the regional and global markets to the South African market. Global shocks are generally stronger and account for up to 23.9 percent of the volatility of South Africa‟s equity market compared to weaker regional factors which account for less than 1 percent of domestic variance. Only in countries with strong bilateral trade and economic links with South Africa, such as Botswana and Namibia, is it found that regional factors are more dominant than global factors for domestic volatility. Compared to the other African markets, the joint influence of foreign shocks on domestic volatility is highest in South Africa and Egypt, two of Africa‟s largest and most developed markets. The results further demonstrate that for all the African markets the explanatory power of both regional and global factors for domestic volatility is not constant over time and tends to increase during turbulent market periods. Secondly, the analysis of the determinants of South frica‟s second moment linkages with the global market suggests that the volatility of the exchange rate plays a cardinal role in influencing the magnitude by which global shocks affect domestic volatility. The increased global integration in the second moments cannot be attributed to either increased trade integration, convergence in inflation rates or to convergence in interest rates between South Africa and the global markets. Lastly, tests were conducted to examine whether there have been contagion effects from the regional and global markets to South Africa from the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2007/8 global financial crisis. The results show no evidence of contagion during either the East Asian currency crisis or the recent global financial crisis to South Africa, while some African markets, such as Egypt, Mauritius and Botswana, exhibit contagion effects from either crisis. Overall, the empirical findings generally support the view that African markets are segmented both at the regional and global levels as domestic volatility is more influenced by local idiosyncratic shocks (the proportion not attributable to either global and regional factors). However, the volatility of South Africa, and to a lesser extent Egypt, remains relatively more open to global influence. This implies that the potential for gains from international portfolio diversification and the scope for success of policies aimed at the stabilisation of equity markets in these markets exist.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Analyzing the Anthropogenic Allee Effect in cycad (Encephalartos species) populations in South Africa: an evaluation of illegal trade and conservation policy
- Authors: Earle, Sasha
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Allee effect , Cycads -- Conservation -- South Africa , Botany, Economic -- South Africa , Rare plants -- South Africa , Endangered plants -- South Africa , Wild plant trade -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , Mcom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/95565 , vital:31171
- Description: South Africa is a country known for rich biodiversity and ecosystems across the land and seascape. South Africa is one of the global hotspots for cycad diversity. Cycads are known to be the world’s most threatened plant species; declining in South Africa at a rapid pace, with threat of extinction in the wild. The main factor being harvesting from the wild for private collections. Rare cycad species’ are especially sought after by collectors. Economic theory assumes that the exploitation of a species is unlikely to result in extinction due to the increasing costs of finding the last few individuals of a species. However, the theory of the Anthropogenic Allee Effect (AAE) suggests that if consumers place a disproportionate value on a rare species’, a cycle may result whereby increased exploitation decreases population size, increasing the value of the species and, consequently, leading to its extinction in the wild. This hypothesis was tested for 37 Encephalartos species using data collected on wild populations, auction prices and the IUCN Red List status for the year 2010. It was hypothesised that an AAE was present within Encephalartos species, as three species have already gone extinct in the wild. The price per centimetre was positively correlated to the rarity of the species and the price per centimetre was negatively correlated to the wild population size. The results suggest a trend of an AAE for the year 2010. Adequate conservation policies are needed to reduce the effects of demand on illegal harvesting and prevent extinction in the wild. The effect of rarity needs to be taken into account to ensure successfulness of such policies. The most recent conservation policy implemented to protect cycads in South Africa is the Strategy and Action for the Management of Cycads in South Africa, which was introduced in 2016. The successfulness of this policy cannot, however, be analysed due to a lack of census data following its implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Earle, Sasha
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Allee effect , Cycads -- Conservation -- South Africa , Botany, Economic -- South Africa , Rare plants -- South Africa , Endangered plants -- South Africa , Wild plant trade -- Law and legislation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , Mcom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/95565 , vital:31171
- Description: South Africa is a country known for rich biodiversity and ecosystems across the land and seascape. South Africa is one of the global hotspots for cycad diversity. Cycads are known to be the world’s most threatened plant species; declining in South Africa at a rapid pace, with threat of extinction in the wild. The main factor being harvesting from the wild for private collections. Rare cycad species’ are especially sought after by collectors. Economic theory assumes that the exploitation of a species is unlikely to result in extinction due to the increasing costs of finding the last few individuals of a species. However, the theory of the Anthropogenic Allee Effect (AAE) suggests that if consumers place a disproportionate value on a rare species’, a cycle may result whereby increased exploitation decreases population size, increasing the value of the species and, consequently, leading to its extinction in the wild. This hypothesis was tested for 37 Encephalartos species using data collected on wild populations, auction prices and the IUCN Red List status for the year 2010. It was hypothesised that an AAE was present within Encephalartos species, as three species have already gone extinct in the wild. The price per centimetre was positively correlated to the rarity of the species and the price per centimetre was negatively correlated to the wild population size. The results suggest a trend of an AAE for the year 2010. Adequate conservation policies are needed to reduce the effects of demand on illegal harvesting and prevent extinction in the wild. The effect of rarity needs to be taken into account to ensure successfulness of such policies. The most recent conservation policy implemented to protect cycads in South Africa is the Strategy and Action for the Management of Cycads in South Africa, which was introduced in 2016. The successfulness of this policy cannot, however, be analysed due to a lack of census data following its implementation.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Assessing the value of public investment into biological control research for invasive alien plants : the ARC PPRI Weeds Research Division
- Authors: Scarr, Lowell Martin
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Alien plants -- Biological control , Invasive plants -- Biological control , Alien plants -- Economic aspects , Invasive plants -- Economic aspects , Weeds -- Biological control
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1126 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020604
- Description: This study investigates the economic impact of the ARC PPRI Weeds Research Division. The Division researches appropriate methods of biological control for invasive alien plants (IAPs). These plants pose an increasing threat to environmental integrity and ecosystem service provision impacting on economic potential. Since the work of the Division is considered a public good, a predominantly descriptive approach has been adopted for the valuation process. A combination of quantitative cost analysis and a qualitative study of the impacts of research and invasive alien plants is used to deal with the challenges associated with non-market valuation. The study found that investment into the Weeds Division is a valuable activity that supports the long-term growth potential of the South African economy. The role of a well-functioning environment is highlighted as an essential base for the creation of sustained growth opportunities in any society. It was determined that investment into the Division should be increased into the future to support efficient spending of scarce state funds. Biological control research was found to provide strategic future growth potential, creating opportunities for the development of a competitive advantage in the biotechnology and environmental management sectors. The study adds to the increasing move towards a more holistic view of economic valuation, taking factors other than pure finance and econometrics into consideration. This is an important shift in prevailing economic thought, as a realisation is reached that a single, or even triple, bottom line is an outdated and insufficient decision making basis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
- Authors: Scarr, Lowell Martin
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Alien plants -- Biological control , Invasive plants -- Biological control , Alien plants -- Economic aspects , Invasive plants -- Economic aspects , Weeds -- Biological control
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1126 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1020604
- Description: This study investigates the economic impact of the ARC PPRI Weeds Research Division. The Division researches appropriate methods of biological control for invasive alien plants (IAPs). These plants pose an increasing threat to environmental integrity and ecosystem service provision impacting on economic potential. Since the work of the Division is considered a public good, a predominantly descriptive approach has been adopted for the valuation process. A combination of quantitative cost analysis and a qualitative study of the impacts of research and invasive alien plants is used to deal with the challenges associated with non-market valuation. The study found that investment into the Weeds Division is a valuable activity that supports the long-term growth potential of the South African economy. The role of a well-functioning environment is highlighted as an essential base for the creation of sustained growth opportunities in any society. It was determined that investment into the Division should be increased into the future to support efficient spending of scarce state funds. Biological control research was found to provide strategic future growth potential, creating opportunities for the development of a competitive advantage in the biotechnology and environmental management sectors. The study adds to the increasing move towards a more holistic view of economic valuation, taking factors other than pure finance and econometrics into consideration. This is an important shift in prevailing economic thought, as a realisation is reached that a single, or even triple, bottom line is an outdated and insufficient decision making basis.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2016
Asymmetric price transmission: an empirical analysis of the relationship between UG-2 chrome ore, charge chrome, nickel and Chinese domestic 304 stainless steel cold rolled coil
- Authors: Le Roux, Simon Petrus
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: Pricing , Chromium ores -- Prices -- South Africa , Nickel -- Prices -- South Africa , Austenitic stainless steel-- Prices -- China , Steel -- Prices -- South Africa , Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/171336 , vital:42049
- Description: The goal of this study was to determine whether asymmetric price transmission (APT) exists between the prices of South African UG-2 Chrome ore, Charge Chrome, Nickel and Chinese Domestic 304 Stainless steel Cold Rolled Coil prices. Monthly time series data for the period January 2009 to July 2019 was analysed. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) model was applied to test for the presence of price asymmetry between the four variables. Firstly, it was observed that the four variables are cointegrated in the long-run. Secondly, no evidence of price asymmetry was found to be present within the Stainless steel supply chain. The reason for this is most likely due to the extremely close-knit and highly concentrated nature of this industry at each level within the supply chain. The industry can be very opaque to external observers even though the distribution of pricing information is very efficient for participants within the industry.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Le Roux, Simon Petrus
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: Pricing , Chromium ores -- Prices -- South Africa , Nickel -- Prices -- South Africa , Austenitic stainless steel-- Prices -- China , Steel -- Prices -- South Africa , Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/171336 , vital:42049
- Description: The goal of this study was to determine whether asymmetric price transmission (APT) exists between the prices of South African UG-2 Chrome ore, Charge Chrome, Nickel and Chinese Domestic 304 Stainless steel Cold Rolled Coil prices. Monthly time series data for the period January 2009 to July 2019 was analysed. The Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) model was applied to test for the presence of price asymmetry between the four variables. Firstly, it was observed that the four variables are cointegrated in the long-run. Secondly, no evidence of price asymmetry was found to be present within the Stainless steel supply chain. The reason for this is most likely due to the extremely close-knit and highly concentrated nature of this industry at each level within the supply chain. The industry can be very opaque to external observers even though the distribution of pricing information is very efficient for participants within the industry.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
Bank credit extension to the private sector and inflation in South Africa
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Dlamini, Samuel Nkosinathi
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:959 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002693 , Bank loans -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Money supply -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Bitcoin's potential for use as a hedge against adverse market conditions in South Africa
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
- Authors: Faba, Yonela
- Date: 2022-10-14
- Subjects: Bitcoin , Hedging (Finance) , Cryptocurrencies , Macroeconomics , Accounting and price fluctuations , Economic forecasting South Africa , Econometric models
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/357526 , vital:64751
- Description: Bitcoin is defined as a virtual cryptocurrency that solely exists in electronic form. Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009 by a programmer or a group of programmers who used the alias; Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin is a decentralised, digital, partially anonymous currency that is not backed by any government or legal entity, and it is not redeemable for gold or any other commodity. The adoption of Bitcoin has been steadily growing over the years, with the earliest adopters being WikiLeaks and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Ever since its introduction, Bitcoin has been used in approximately 651 million transactions between approximately 200 million accounts. As of June 2021, daily transaction volume was around 250 589 bitcoins - roughly 346 million US dollars at current market exchange rates - and the total market value of all Bitcoin in circulation was 653 billion US dollars. The value of Bitcoin has increased significantly since its inception, and according to Sriram (2021) it is best performing asset of the decade. This prompted the present study, as it is crucial to ascertain whether Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against adverse market conditions in the South African context, conditions like increases in inflation, stock market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. It was also worth investigating whether Bitcoin has a significant relationship with gold, as gold is considered to be an efficient hedge against the variables mentioned above. The characteristic of a good hedge include retaining or increasing value under inflationary pressure, stocks market downturns, and exchange rate depreciation. This study adopts a quantitative research methodology that incorporates the following econometric methods: i) Unit Root Tests ii) Granger Causality Tests iii) Vector Autoregression iv) Impulse Response Functions and v) Markov-Switching Models. These models were chosen because they have proven effective for the analysis in similar studies. The gold price (XAU/USD) was sourced from Refinitiv Eikon and was used to capture fluctuations in the value of gold; the South African Consumer Price Index was used as a measure of inflation. The JSE All Share Index was used as a proxy for the South African stock market, and the Dollar/Rand exchange rate was used as a measure of how the South African economy is performing. The study found that there was no significant relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices. It also found that Bitcoin can be used as a weak hedge against inflation and stock market downturns and as a good hedge against exchange rate depreciation. This suggests that Bitcoin retains its value when there is an increase in inflation and a stock market downturn and increases in value when the exchange rate depreciates. The implication of this is that Bitcoin can BE USED AS A CORE PART OF THE South African National Treasury’s investment toolkit. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-10-14
Boerdery in die Suid-Afrikaanse Republiek 1858-1899
- Authors: Naudé, Petrus
- Date: 1954
- Subjects: Agriculture -- South Africa -- History -- 19th century , Agricultural laborers -- South Africa -- History , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- History , Farmers -- South Africa -- History -- 19th century
- Language: Afrikaans
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1092 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012946
- Description: In Suid-Afrika het die opkoms van die sosialistiese gedagte teen die einde van die negentiende eeu ook merkbare invloed op die staatshuishouding gehad. In die negentiende eeu was die ekonomiese wetgewing, hoofsaaklik onder invloed van die indiwidualisme volgens die leer van "Laissez- faire", daarop gerig om die maksimum welvaart te verkry deur vrye mededinging aan te moedig en te beskerm, en om privaat inisiatief sy gang te laat gaan. Daar het egter geleidelik 'n verandering in hierdie houding en beleid ingetree. Deur 'n verandering in die beskouing omtrent die einddoel van die menslike arbeid en sy ekonomiese bedrywigheid moes die staat uit sosiaal-ekonomiese oorwegings sekere seksies van die samelewing deur spesiale en beskermende wetgewing te hulp kom. Die ontwikkeling van die aandeel wat die staat geneem het in die beheer en bevordering van die welvaart van die boere in die Suid-Afrikaanse Republiek is ' n voorbeeld van die voorgenoemde omwenteling in die ekonomiese en bedryfslewe teen die einde van die vorige eeu. Die staat het aanvanklik weinig gedoen vir die bevordering en beheer van die onderhoudsboerdery. Later, met die veranderde boerderyekonomie, het staatshulp, staatsvoorligting en -beheer egter noodsaaklik geword. Gedurende die laaste jare van die Suid- Afrikaanse Republiek het die owerheid meer en meer verpligtings teenoor die boeregemeenskap aanvaar. Namate die staat groter hulp en diens verskaf het, na dié mate moes hy ook groter beheer uitoefen.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1954
- Authors: Naudé, Petrus
- Date: 1954
- Subjects: Agriculture -- South Africa -- History -- 19th century , Agricultural laborers -- South Africa -- History , Agriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- History , Farmers -- South Africa -- History -- 19th century
- Language: Afrikaans
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1092 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012946
- Description: In Suid-Afrika het die opkoms van die sosialistiese gedagte teen die einde van die negentiende eeu ook merkbare invloed op die staatshuishouding gehad. In die negentiende eeu was die ekonomiese wetgewing, hoofsaaklik onder invloed van die indiwidualisme volgens die leer van "Laissez- faire", daarop gerig om die maksimum welvaart te verkry deur vrye mededinging aan te moedig en te beskerm, en om privaat inisiatief sy gang te laat gaan. Daar het egter geleidelik 'n verandering in hierdie houding en beleid ingetree. Deur 'n verandering in die beskouing omtrent die einddoel van die menslike arbeid en sy ekonomiese bedrywigheid moes die staat uit sosiaal-ekonomiese oorwegings sekere seksies van die samelewing deur spesiale en beskermende wetgewing te hulp kom. Die ontwikkeling van die aandeel wat die staat geneem het in die beheer en bevordering van die welvaart van die boere in die Suid-Afrikaanse Republiek is ' n voorbeeld van die voorgenoemde omwenteling in die ekonomiese en bedryfslewe teen die einde van die vorige eeu. Die staat het aanvanklik weinig gedoen vir die bevordering en beheer van die onderhoudsboerdery. Later, met die veranderde boerderyekonomie, het staatshulp, staatsvoorligting en -beheer egter noodsaaklik geword. Gedurende die laaste jare van die Suid- Afrikaanse Republiek het die owerheid meer en meer verpligtings teenoor die boeregemeenskap aanvaar. Namate die staat groter hulp en diens verskaf het, na dié mate moes hy ook groter beheer uitoefen.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1954
Bond market development in emerging economies: a case study of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA)
- Authors: Hove, Tagara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:961 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002695 , Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
- Authors: Hove, Tagara
- Date: 2009
- Subjects: Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:961 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002695 , Bond Exchange of South Africa , Bond market -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa
- Description: This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2009
Bond market integration in the Common Monetary Area (CMA)
- Ramoriting, Retšelisitsoe Silvia
- Authors: Ramoriting, Retšelisitsoe Silvia
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Globalization , Globalization Economic aspects , Bond market , Rand area , Africa, Southern Economic integration , Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284592 , vital:56077
- Description: The study reviews the phenomenon of financial integration. During the late 1980s and 1990s, financial market integration around the world increased due to globalisation of investments and the need for higher returns and international risk diversification. The increase was accompanied by a significant increase in private capital flows into developing countries from developed countries. The main goal of the study is to examine bond market integration in the common monetary area The study therefore investigates the co-movement of government bond returns within the CMA using data from Eswatini, Namibia, and South Africa. The study attempts to find the short-run and long-run relationship of these government bond returns using the ARDL cointegration technique. The study uses daily data of 10-year government bond yields spanning from August 2014 to September 2019. The empirical results reveal that there exists a short-run and long-run relationship between South Africa and Eswatini. Between South Africa and Namibia, there only exist a short-run relationship. Just like the previously mentioned studies, the short-run relationship is a result of policy convergence. The lack of long-run relationship between South and Namibia was due to poor institutional developments and limited investment opportunities. In this case, policy measures (or reforms) and a review of the union are necessary to increase integration of these bond markets. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
- Authors: Ramoriting, Retšelisitsoe Silvia
- Date: 2022-04-06
- Subjects: Globalization , Globalization Economic aspects , Bond market , Rand area , Africa, Southern Economic integration , Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/284592 , vital:56077
- Description: The study reviews the phenomenon of financial integration. During the late 1980s and 1990s, financial market integration around the world increased due to globalisation of investments and the need for higher returns and international risk diversification. The increase was accompanied by a significant increase in private capital flows into developing countries from developed countries. The main goal of the study is to examine bond market integration in the common monetary area The study therefore investigates the co-movement of government bond returns within the CMA using data from Eswatini, Namibia, and South Africa. The study attempts to find the short-run and long-run relationship of these government bond returns using the ARDL cointegration technique. The study uses daily data of 10-year government bond yields spanning from August 2014 to September 2019. The empirical results reveal that there exists a short-run and long-run relationship between South Africa and Eswatini. Between South Africa and Namibia, there only exist a short-run relationship. Just like the previously mentioned studies, the short-run relationship is a result of policy convergence. The lack of long-run relationship between South and Namibia was due to poor institutional developments and limited investment opportunities. In this case, policy measures (or reforms) and a review of the union are necessary to increase integration of these bond markets. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2022
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2022-04-06
Can sport impact rational investor behaviour? : an evaluation of the impact of national sporting performance on stock market returns in South Africa
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
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- Date Issued: 2012