The functioning of the interbank market and its significance in the transmission of monetary policy
- Authors: De Angelis, Catherine
- Date: 2013-06-11
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1075 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008054 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
- Full Text:
- Authors: De Angelis, Catherine
- Date: 2013-06-11
- Subjects: South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1075 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1008054 , South African Reserve Bank , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Foreign exchange rates -- South Africa , Money market -- South Africa , Banks and banking -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic policy , South Africa -- Economic conditions
- Description: Monetary policy in South African is the primary means by which the authorities can influence activity in the overall economy. The South African Reserve Bank accommodates banks through repo transactions for which they charge the repo rate. The most important market in the transmission of the repo rate to the rest of the economy is the interbank market. As such, a detailed discussion of this market is given. In September 200 I the monetary authorities made certain adjustments to the repo system of accommodation, which included changing the repo rate from a floating rate to a fixed rate that would be administratively determined by the MPC. This was done to address certain weaknesses in the floating rate system. This thesis examines and compares the period before and after the adjustments to the repo system, with the aim of determining whether or not the monetary authorities achieved the goals intended from making this change. The repo rate, prime interbank rate, 3-month NCO rate and the prime lending rate are analysed using the Engle-Granger two variable approach and an ECM model to test for causality. It was found that the monetary authorities did not achieve their intended goals as the relationship between the repo rate and the interbank rate was more significant in the first period. Furthermore, the direction of causality the authorities hoped to achieve by implementing the changes were in fact already in place. As such the adjustments to the system changed the transmission mechanism from the one desired by the authorities to one that was not intended. The conclusions reached by this study show that, in terms of the objectives of the monetary authorities, the previous repo system functioned better. , KMBT_363 , Adobe Acrobat 9.54 Paper Capture Plug-in
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The impact of South African monetary policy on output and price stability in Namibia
- William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
- Authors: William, Anna Martha Tandakos
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Common Monetary Area (Organization) , Monetary unions -- Africa, Southern , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- Namibia , Repurchase agreements -- South Africa , Repurchase agreements -- Namibia , Inflation (Finance) -- South Africa , Inflation (Finance) -- Namibia , Namibia -- Economic conditions , Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/167709 , vital:41505
- Description: Namibia is a member country of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) with Lesotho, Swaziland and South Africa. South Africa is the anchor country to which the smaller member states have surrendered monetary policy authority. This thesis therefore examines the empirical relationship between the South Africa repo rate (SArepo) on the one hand and Namibia’s repo rate (Namrepo), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the other hand. The credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism informs the theoretical foundation of the thesis. Vector Autoregression modelling, variance decomposition and impulse response functions were used to explore the nature and strength of the relationship between the SArepo and said variables in Namibia. This thesis used quarterly data for the period 2003 to 2017. The variation in the Namrepo was predominantly explained by the SArepo, which confirmed that the Namrepo strongly followed the SArepo. The impulse response function results found that the impact of a contractionary monetary policy shock (an increase in the SArepo) lasted for up to six quarters before the effect started to fade. The Namrepo exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo, although the magnitude of the response started to fade after the third quarter. The PLR, as a representative of market rates in Namibia, also exhibited a positive response to an increase in the SArepo. The results were similar for the Namrepo and the PLR because changes to the NamRepo are passed through immediately to the market interest rates. On the real variables, the study found that a contractionary monetary policy shock initiated in South Africa resulted in an increase in inflation in Namibia of less than 0.4 percent, whereas output declined by less than 1.0 percent. Interestingly, a Namibia (domestic) contractionary monetary policy shock resulted in a decline in prices of less than 0.4 percent. GDP, on the other hand, exhibited a positive response to a contractionary monetary shock, with an increase of less than 2.0 percent in the first four quarters of the period observed. The results reflected that a contractionary monetary policy shock from South Africa was more effective with regard to its impact on GDP; however, a domestic monetary policy shock was more effective at impacting on domestic inflation compared to the impact from South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
The term structure of interest rates and economic activity in South Africa
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
- Authors: Shelile, Teboho
- Date: 2007
- Subjects: Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:994 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002729 , Finance -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa , Interest rates -- South Africa , Economic development -- South Africa , South Africa -- Economic conditions -- 21st century
- Description: Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2007
An empirical analysis of the long-run comovement, dynamic returns linkages and volatility transmission between the world major and the South African stock markets
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008
- Authors: Chinzara, Zivanemoyo
- Date: 2008
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:970 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002704 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Globalization -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , International economic relations , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Monetary policy -- South Africa
- Description: The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2008