Can sport impact rational investor behaviour? : an evaluation of the impact of national sporting performance on stock market returns in South Africa
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
- Authors: De Beer, Carl Francois
- Date: 2012
- Subjects: Investments -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Finance -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Economic aspects -- Research -- South Africa Sports -- Psychological aspects -- Research -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:1013 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002748
- Description: The finance industry is an extremely fast and complex world dominated by the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). This theory contains many assumptions which include that investors are rational utility maximisers and that market prices reflect all relevant economic information available to the public. However, over the years, a new form of financial literature known as behavioural finance has been gaining momentum. Behavioural finance seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and economics in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how markets react to different situations. Behavioural finance has also gained much attention in recent years due to the EMH’s inability to explain many economic anomalies. This study first considers the differences between behavioural finance theory and EMH theory before explaining how an individual’s mood has the ability to influence one’s risk taking preferences. Mood changes were also found to be linked to changes in the way an individual reacts to different situations, the way they thinks and processes thoughts. Negative events were also found to have a greater influence on an individual’s mood than positive events did, resulting in an asymmetric relationship between positive and negative results. This study then examines numerous studies indicating how non-economic events can have a statistical and significant influence on stock market returns before analysing previous literature where sport was found to influence market prices. The aim of this study is to determine if South African national sporting performance can influence investors in such a way that it has the ability to impact on market returns. Using standard event study methodology, this study determines the constant mean return using the daily All-Share price index on the JSE for the period of 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2010. This study focuses on three of South Africa’s most popular sports, namely soccer, cricket and rugby and examine if these three sports have the ability to influence market returns. Although there is some evidence of a relationship between stock returns and sporting performance in the descriptive analysis, the regression results indicate that sporting performance in South Africa does not significantly explain abnormal market returns on the JSE. The study provides a number of possible reasons for this finding and concludes by suggesting areas for future research.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2012
Capital mobility and economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
- Authors: Dhlamini, Nonceba Michelle
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434712 , vital:73098
- Description: The South African current account balance has been deteriorating over the years. An investigation of the correlation between capital mobility and economic growth is of interest as South Africa is heavily reliant on capital inflows to finance the current account deficit. This research topic is of importance as there is need to devise policies that maximise the benefits the nation derives from capital mobility. The benefits that capital flows provide economies, theoretically outweigh the disadvantages, provided that capital flows are absorbed productively. The topic is also of interest in the light of the magnitude of shocks to the South African economy such as the rand crisis, dotcom bubble, stock market bubble, inflation targeting, commodity super cycle, global financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and Russo-Ukrainian War, as these shocks have translated to slower economic growth and higher levels of inflation. These shocks have equally revealed that countries need to have sound macroeconomic policies in order to survive the impact of any crises. The vision 2030 secretariat has identified capital markets as the key providers of capital required for achieving social economic blueprint. The empirical evidence locally is limited in comparison to the empirical evidence from outside of South Africa. This topic is of importance as South African studies on this topic are not as recent and this study aims to bridge that gap. Data were obtained from the South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin and the World Bank database for the period 1990 to 2022. The Autoregressive Distribution Lag model was employed in order to determine the relationship. This study relied on the supply-leading theory which posits capital markets may positively or negatively affect key indicators of economic growth. The study found that there is a positive long run relationship between net capital flows, saving-investment ratio and economic growth and a negative long run relationship between the degree of trade openness and economic growth. The findings will allow opportunity to address capital flow surges and in turn boost investor confidence. Capital flow management measures can help manage destabilizing exchange rate movements and capital flows coupled with macroprudential tools helping reduce the domestic buildup of vulnerabilities. , Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
Carbon credit restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa: considerations for sustainable local economic development
- Authors: Polak, James Samuel
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/8069 , vital:21349
- Description: Although global climate change has been identified as a serious global economic, social, and environmental threat to society, national governments have been slow to respond on a global scale. Environmental economic theory offers market-based solutions to address climate change efficiently through carbon control regimes, such as carbon taxation and cap-and-trade policy. A major political milestone was reached when an international agreement entered into force in 2008, known the Kyoto Protocol, which incorporated a market-based solution to address climate change on a global scale. This allowed a global market for emissions to form through the Clean Development Mechanism. Although the Kyoto Protocol aimed to address a global issue on a global scale through a single global market for emissions, fragmented sovereign cap-and-trade schemes have since emerged in the form of national and regional emission markets, commonly referred to as carbon markets. The Clean Development Mechanism offered the opportunity to generate carbon credits through carbon offset projects, such as carbon restoration projects. Although the Kyoto Protocol did not achieve the objective of forming an internationally accepted global carbon control regime, it seems to have set a trend of including offset programs in newly emerging carbon control regimes, such as South Africa’s proposed carbon tax. This study set out to assess the extent to which carbon control regimes are enabling sustainable local economic development, based on carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using Portulacaria afra, commonly known as spekboom. As a starting point, this study assessed the current state of the international carbon markets using significant international cap-and-trade based markets as examples. Based on Newell et al.’s (2013) selection of significant carbon markets and data availability, the United States’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme were selected. Historical, current and forecasted supply and demand data were gathered from Thomson Reuters’ Point Carbon research division. Further, historical futures and spot market price and volume data were gathered from the markets to compare how prices have fared over time. The Clean Development Mechanism’s market for Certified Emission Reduction credits was used for comparative purposes. The markets were found to be systemically oversupplied, leading to systemically low prices. The systemic oversupply in credits provides a limited incentive to initiate carbon offset projects, however, South Africa’s proposed carbon tax may be able to stimulate demand for domestic offset projects. Key success factors established through a comparative literature review on local economic development theory were incorporated into key informant interviews. The results were then analysed through the lens of Connelly’s (2007) model for sustainable development to provide recommendations for sustainable local economic development, regarding carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape using P. afra. The following opportunities were identified: the planting of P. afra on degraded land has the potential to mitigate climate change, offer water benefits to the surrounding communities, and promote biodiversity regeneration. There is potential for economic growth through job creation and the economic multiplier effect. Government funding is available and voluntary offset agreements do exist, eliminating a large portion of the cumbersome accreditation requirements. These projects also offer potential for social justice through the government funding requirements which stipulate that youth and women should be given preference for employment, potentially helping to alleviate inequality. The funding further stipulates that employees should be trained in transferable skills, offering potential for capacity building and social capital accumulation through education. These transferable skills include skills geared towards encouraging entrepreneurialism. Corresponding challenges were also found: excessive overgrazing through pastoralism has rendered some land degraded beyond restoration. Opportunists may resort to planting P. afra outside of the subtropical Albany Thicket biome to which it is endemic, leading to potential biodiversity loss rather than gains. Sufficient buy-in is required from private landowners for these projects to be sustainable, however, the projects entail a large opportunity cost to farmers as returns take at least 5 to 6 years. This may render these projects undesirable to most landowners and provides scope for free-riding, should pastoralists not have to bear the full costs of the project and property rights not be enforced through land user agreements. The projects require an exorbitant amount of upfront funding. Cash flow received from the projects does not extend in perpetuity. Requirements for social justice pertain only to government funded projects. A working model, generating and selling carbon credits through land restoration using P. afra, has not yet been established. As it stands, these carbon restoration projects are still highly speculative and carry a significant amount of investment risk, given the high mortality and low growth rates associated with the current planting method. The current systemic oversupply of carbon. credits in the international markets signal that returns from carbon credits are set to be low, at least until the oversupply issues are resolved. Should these challenges be overcome, carbon restoration projects using P. afra may have the potential to bolster sustainable local economic development in the impoverished regions of province as well as provide a locally-driven adaptation and mitigation strategy to address global climate change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Polak, James Samuel
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/8069 , vital:21349
- Description: Although global climate change has been identified as a serious global economic, social, and environmental threat to society, national governments have been slow to respond on a global scale. Environmental economic theory offers market-based solutions to address climate change efficiently through carbon control regimes, such as carbon taxation and cap-and-trade policy. A major political milestone was reached when an international agreement entered into force in 2008, known the Kyoto Protocol, which incorporated a market-based solution to address climate change on a global scale. This allowed a global market for emissions to form through the Clean Development Mechanism. Although the Kyoto Protocol aimed to address a global issue on a global scale through a single global market for emissions, fragmented sovereign cap-and-trade schemes have since emerged in the form of national and regional emission markets, commonly referred to as carbon markets. The Clean Development Mechanism offered the opportunity to generate carbon credits through carbon offset projects, such as carbon restoration projects. Although the Kyoto Protocol did not achieve the objective of forming an internationally accepted global carbon control regime, it seems to have set a trend of including offset programs in newly emerging carbon control regimes, such as South Africa’s proposed carbon tax. This study set out to assess the extent to which carbon control regimes are enabling sustainable local economic development, based on carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using Portulacaria afra, commonly known as spekboom. As a starting point, this study assessed the current state of the international carbon markets using significant international cap-and-trade based markets as examples. Based on Newell et al.’s (2013) selection of significant carbon markets and data availability, the United States’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme were selected. Historical, current and forecasted supply and demand data were gathered from Thomson Reuters’ Point Carbon research division. Further, historical futures and spot market price and volume data were gathered from the markets to compare how prices have fared over time. The Clean Development Mechanism’s market for Certified Emission Reduction credits was used for comparative purposes. The markets were found to be systemically oversupplied, leading to systemically low prices. The systemic oversupply in credits provides a limited incentive to initiate carbon offset projects, however, South Africa’s proposed carbon tax may be able to stimulate demand for domestic offset projects. Key success factors established through a comparative literature review on local economic development theory were incorporated into key informant interviews. The results were then analysed through the lens of Connelly’s (2007) model for sustainable development to provide recommendations for sustainable local economic development, regarding carbon restoration projects in the Eastern Cape using P. afra. The following opportunities were identified: the planting of P. afra on degraded land has the potential to mitigate climate change, offer water benefits to the surrounding communities, and promote biodiversity regeneration. There is potential for economic growth through job creation and the economic multiplier effect. Government funding is available and voluntary offset agreements do exist, eliminating a large portion of the cumbersome accreditation requirements. These projects also offer potential for social justice through the government funding requirements which stipulate that youth and women should be given preference for employment, potentially helping to alleviate inequality. The funding further stipulates that employees should be trained in transferable skills, offering potential for capacity building and social capital accumulation through education. These transferable skills include skills geared towards encouraging entrepreneurialism. Corresponding challenges were also found: excessive overgrazing through pastoralism has rendered some land degraded beyond restoration. Opportunists may resort to planting P. afra outside of the subtropical Albany Thicket biome to which it is endemic, leading to potential biodiversity loss rather than gains. Sufficient buy-in is required from private landowners for these projects to be sustainable, however, the projects entail a large opportunity cost to farmers as returns take at least 5 to 6 years. This may render these projects undesirable to most landowners and provides scope for free-riding, should pastoralists not have to bear the full costs of the project and property rights not be enforced through land user agreements. The projects require an exorbitant amount of upfront funding. Cash flow received from the projects does not extend in perpetuity. Requirements for social justice pertain only to government funded projects. A working model, generating and selling carbon credits through land restoration using P. afra, has not yet been established. As it stands, these carbon restoration projects are still highly speculative and carry a significant amount of investment risk, given the high mortality and low growth rates associated with the current planting method. The current systemic oversupply of carbon. credits in the international markets signal that returns from carbon credits are set to be low, at least until the oversupply issues are resolved. Should these challenges be overcome, carbon restoration projects using P. afra may have the potential to bolster sustainable local economic development in the impoverished regions of province as well as provide a locally-driven adaptation and mitigation strategy to address global climate change.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
China's African FDI safari : opportunistic exploitation or muturally beneficial to all participants
- Dreier, Tina, Rhodes University
- Authors: Dreier, Tina , Rhodes University
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-10
- Subjects: Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- China , China -- Foreign economic relations -- Africa , Investments, Foreign -- China , Foreign direct investment
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:929 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001455 , Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- China , China -- Foreign economic relations -- Africa , Investments, Foreign -- China
- Description: When implemented within a favourable legislative framework, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can produce domestic growth-enhancing spillovers in host countries. Other potential positive effects include the provision of investment capital, the creation of local employment and the transfer of sophisticated technology or advanced knowledge. African nations in particular have been historically reliant on externally-provided funds. Prevailing low income levels, marginal savings rates and the absence of functioning financial markets necessary to provide local start-up capital continue to keep Africa reliant on foreign inflows. Considering China’s increasing financial commitments to Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) over the last decade, this study examines the state of current Sino-African investment relationships. Specific attention is paid to the outcomes of this strategic bilateral alliance in order to determine whether or not a mutually beneficial investment relationship has evolved. The distinct nature and structure of, the motivation behind and the most significant determinants of Chinese FDI to SSA are all analysed in accordance with traditional FDI theories. A case study approach is used to establish whether China’s contemporary interest in SSA differs from historical investments and to also investigate country-specific commonalities and differences. Of particular relevance to SSA are resource-backed Chinese loans that finance major infrastructure projects in host nations. Interestingly, a lot of the Sino-African investment packages resemble similar deals struck between China and Japan in the 1970s. The results of this study indicate that China’s investment motives seem more diverse than initially expected. Resource-seeking, profit-seeking and market access-seeking reasons appear to be the most important motives. After establishing the Top- Ten recipients of Chinese FDI in SSA, these nations are then classified into three major categories: resource-, oil- or agricultural-rich nations. Undiversified resource- or oil-rich economies are found to have secured the largest shares of Chinese FDI. This study suggests that China’s contemporary “African Safari” is an unconventional way of providing financial assistance. Rather than solely supplying FDI, China finances a diverse mix of instruments, the most important being concessional loans, export credits, zero-interest loans and the establishment of Special Economic Zones. A profound difference to traditional Western investment packages is China’s non-interference approach. Accordingly, Beijing not only refrains from intervening in host countries’ domestic affairs but also refuses to attach formal conditionalties to its loans. China’s “financial safari” into Africa has produced many positive as well as negative effects in host countries. Nevertheless, it would seem that the positive effects outweigh the negative and China’s FDI could contribute to sustainable development in SSA
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
- Authors: Dreier, Tina , Rhodes University
- Date: 2013 , 2013-04-10
- Subjects: Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- China , China -- Foreign economic relations -- Africa , Investments, Foreign -- China , Foreign direct investment
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:929 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001455 , Africa -- Foreign economic relations -- China , China -- Foreign economic relations -- Africa , Investments, Foreign -- China
- Description: When implemented within a favourable legislative framework, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can produce domestic growth-enhancing spillovers in host countries. Other potential positive effects include the provision of investment capital, the creation of local employment and the transfer of sophisticated technology or advanced knowledge. African nations in particular have been historically reliant on externally-provided funds. Prevailing low income levels, marginal savings rates and the absence of functioning financial markets necessary to provide local start-up capital continue to keep Africa reliant on foreign inflows. Considering China’s increasing financial commitments to Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) over the last decade, this study examines the state of current Sino-African investment relationships. Specific attention is paid to the outcomes of this strategic bilateral alliance in order to determine whether or not a mutually beneficial investment relationship has evolved. The distinct nature and structure of, the motivation behind and the most significant determinants of Chinese FDI to SSA are all analysed in accordance with traditional FDI theories. A case study approach is used to establish whether China’s contemporary interest in SSA differs from historical investments and to also investigate country-specific commonalities and differences. Of particular relevance to SSA are resource-backed Chinese loans that finance major infrastructure projects in host nations. Interestingly, a lot of the Sino-African investment packages resemble similar deals struck between China and Japan in the 1970s. The results of this study indicate that China’s investment motives seem more diverse than initially expected. Resource-seeking, profit-seeking and market access-seeking reasons appear to be the most important motives. After establishing the Top- Ten recipients of Chinese FDI in SSA, these nations are then classified into three major categories: resource-, oil- or agricultural-rich nations. Undiversified resource- or oil-rich economies are found to have secured the largest shares of Chinese FDI. This study suggests that China’s contemporary “African Safari” is an unconventional way of providing financial assistance. Rather than solely supplying FDI, China finances a diverse mix of instruments, the most important being concessional loans, export credits, zero-interest loans and the establishment of Special Economic Zones. A profound difference to traditional Western investment packages is China’s non-interference approach. Accordingly, Beijing not only refrains from intervening in host countries’ domestic affairs but also refuses to attach formal conditionalties to its loans. China’s “financial safari” into Africa has produced many positive as well as negative effects in host countries. Nevertheless, it would seem that the positive effects outweigh the negative and China’s FDI could contribute to sustainable development in SSA
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2013
Cointegration, causality and international portfolio diversification : investigating potential benefits to a South African investor
- Authors: Msimanga, Nkululeko Lwazi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:962 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002696 , Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Description: Research studies on portfolio diversification have tended to focus on developed markets and paid less attention to emerging markets. Traditionally, correlation analysis has been used to determine potential benefits from diversification but current studies have shifted focus from correlation analysis to exploring cointegration analysis and other forms of tests such as the Vector Error Correction Methodology. The research seeks to find if it is beneficial for a South African investor to diversify their portfolio of emerging market equities over a long-term period. Daily weighted share indices for the period of January 1996 to November 2008 were collected and analysed through the application of the Johansen cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. Granger Causality tests were also performed to established whether one variable can be useful in forecasting another variable. The study found that there was at least one statistically significant long-run relationship between the emerging markets. After testing for unit roots for all the share indices and their first difference using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Philips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, similar conclusions were m~de. All the unit root tests and their levels could not be rejected for all the series. However, unit root tests on the first differences were rejected, meaning that all series are of order 1(1) - evidence of cointegration. Simply put, emerging markets tend not to drift apart over time. This suggests that emerging markets offer limited benefits to investors who are looking to add some risk to their portfolios. In addition, the study also found evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality (Granger-Cause tests) between markets. This implies that the conditions for a particular market are exogenous of the other market. The study concludes that emerging markets are gradually adopting the same profile as developed markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Msimanga, Nkululeko Lwazi
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:962 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002696 , Cointegration , Econometrics , International finance , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Stock exchanges -- Developing countries , Stock exchanges -- Developed countries , Investments -- South Africa , Portfolio management -- South Africa , Investment analysis , Autoregression (Statistics)
- Description: Research studies on portfolio diversification have tended to focus on developed markets and paid less attention to emerging markets. Traditionally, correlation analysis has been used to determine potential benefits from diversification but current studies have shifted focus from correlation analysis to exploring cointegration analysis and other forms of tests such as the Vector Error Correction Methodology. The research seeks to find if it is beneficial for a South African investor to diversify their portfolio of emerging market equities over a long-term period. Daily weighted share indices for the period of January 1996 to November 2008 were collected and analysed through the application of the Johansen cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Methodology. Granger Causality tests were also performed to established whether one variable can be useful in forecasting another variable. The study found that there was at least one statistically significant long-run relationship between the emerging markets. After testing for unit roots for all the share indices and their first difference using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Philips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, similar conclusions were m~de. All the unit root tests and their levels could not be rejected for all the series. However, unit root tests on the first differences were rejected, meaning that all series are of order 1(1) - evidence of cointegration. Simply put, emerging markets tend not to drift apart over time. This suggests that emerging markets offer limited benefits to investors who are looking to add some risk to their portfolios. In addition, the study also found evidence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality (Granger-Cause tests) between markets. This implies that the conditions for a particular market are exogenous of the other market. The study concludes that emerging markets are gradually adopting the same profile as developed markets.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Considerations for implementating market based mechanisms in combating climate change in South Africa
- Authors: Marais, Frans
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1093 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012952
- Description: Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
- Authors: Marais, Frans
- Date: 2014
- Subjects: Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1093 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012952
- Description: Since the first period of the Kyoto Protocol, there has been a growing concern that the burden of reducing greenhouse gas emissions should not only be borne by developed countries, but developing countries as well. South Africa, as the 18th highest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and highest in Africa, has a significant responsibility to reduce its emissions levels. The South African government is currently in the process of implementing a carbon tax for its short term response to climate change and considering the implementation of a carbon market as a medium to long term response to climate change. Both of these market based mechanisms are widely deemed effective in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by economists, however are also known to have negative social and economic implications upon an economy. This study identifies these implications and attempts to provide considerations on how to alleviate the implications through the most appropriate process of revenue recycling. The negative effects of Implementing a carbon tax or carbon market could be severe as and not limited to: a significant decline in GDP, a reduction in the standard of living for certain households, a fall in a country's exports and even an increase in poverty. South Africa's environmental and development policies place a strict precedence on the protection of the poor and the prevention of economic hardship induced by such policies. This places significant importance on the prevention of these externalities from occurring. A primary means of doing so is through the process of revenue recycling, however, certain channels of revenue recycling are by no means helpful, hence the most appropriate channel needs to be identified. The study carried out a multiple case study analysis on Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand and Norway, to determine what effects a carbon tax had on their economies and how these effects were mitigated through carbon tax revenue recycling. An additional analysis of the EU ETS was carried out to determine how the EU ETS was implemented and the controversies and concerns that arose during its implementation. The findings of this analysis were then compared to a number of South African economist’s case studies, and the most appropriate method of revenue recycling identified and possible solutions to the EU ETS controversies found. The study concludes that a food subsidy has the potential to provide positive effects on welfare employment and GDP; therefore could be considered to be the most appropriate method of revenue recycling. However, these effects are limited to be experienced only at low levels of a carbon tax, hence, short term in nature. The study therefore provides a further consideration that the use of multiple channels for revenue recycling needs to be explored that could provide stable longer term effects. In addition, in the implementation of a carbon market, the study concludes that government should consider using an auction approach in the initial allocation phase of an ETS and the use of a centralized registry for monitoring and controlling of information and transactions.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2014
Considerations on the economic impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup on South Africa
- Authors: Menezes, Mathew Gomes
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: World Cup (Soccer) (2010) -- Economic aspects Sports -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Soccer -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:963 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002697
- Description: Mega-events are associated with significant positive implications such as enhanced international exposure of the host, improved infrastructure, increased tourist numbers, higher employment levels and tax revenues, greater feelings of patriotism among host region residents and integration of the host into the international community. Supporters of events have claimed that the occasions stimulate prominent economic gains for the host region. The economic and tourism growth that occurred in Barcelona following the 1992 Olympic Games is erroneously cited by proponents of hosting as an example of the potential benefits that an event can derive on the host. Those Games were not the sole driver of growth in the region. An analysis of previous mega-events, demonstrated that net benefits were not a necessary consequence of hosting. Comparison of pre-event estimates of the economic impact and their actual effects are universally divergent. The observation was validated by the consensus academic opinion that economic impact studies systematically overstate the benefits of hosting, and underestimate the costs. Further, different forward-looking studies of the same event, calculate vastly different predictions. The tools for calculating the economic impact, specifically Input-Output Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium, do not provide useful predictions given their dependence on the inaccurate data. With 2010 cost data having continually increased since 2003, determining the appropriate inputs to an I-O or CGE is problematic. It was identified that the weight given to the multiplier effect was also a factor in the amplification of the expected benefits. Given the poor data sets available as inputs to I-O and CGE models, the study concentrated on conducting a comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis of the determinants of the economic impact of the 2010 World Cup based on the premise that the identification of the relative costs and benefits of staging the event was regarded as a greater contribution to the body of knowledge on the topic. It can be expected that there will not be significant short-term economic gains; this study predicted a net cost of R8.4bn, which is marginally offset by short-term net intangible benefits. The short-term economic consequences of the 2010 World Cup are expected to be overshadowed by the long-term effects on revenues within the tourism industry. The image implication of hosting 2010 is the most salient factor in considering the economic impact of 2010, as an alteration in the national image can have long-term effects on FDI and tourism. It is however not a certainty that the international exposure that South Africa receives will be beneficial, in the instance that the World Cup is characterised by poor organisational measures or crime. The net impact of hosting is expected to be a function of the long-term benefits, which can be expected to exceed the short-terms costs, and derive a cumulative net benefit from staging 2010. The World Cup is however unlikely to stimulate the economic growth rate above levels that would have occurred had the event not been held in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Menezes, Mathew Gomes
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: World Cup (Soccer) (2010) -- Economic aspects Sports -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Soccer -- Economic aspects -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:963 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002697
- Description: Mega-events are associated with significant positive implications such as enhanced international exposure of the host, improved infrastructure, increased tourist numbers, higher employment levels and tax revenues, greater feelings of patriotism among host region residents and integration of the host into the international community. Supporters of events have claimed that the occasions stimulate prominent economic gains for the host region. The economic and tourism growth that occurred in Barcelona following the 1992 Olympic Games is erroneously cited by proponents of hosting as an example of the potential benefits that an event can derive on the host. Those Games were not the sole driver of growth in the region. An analysis of previous mega-events, demonstrated that net benefits were not a necessary consequence of hosting. Comparison of pre-event estimates of the economic impact and their actual effects are universally divergent. The observation was validated by the consensus academic opinion that economic impact studies systematically overstate the benefits of hosting, and underestimate the costs. Further, different forward-looking studies of the same event, calculate vastly different predictions. The tools for calculating the economic impact, specifically Input-Output Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium, do not provide useful predictions given their dependence on the inaccurate data. With 2010 cost data having continually increased since 2003, determining the appropriate inputs to an I-O or CGE is problematic. It was identified that the weight given to the multiplier effect was also a factor in the amplification of the expected benefits. Given the poor data sets available as inputs to I-O and CGE models, the study concentrated on conducting a comprehensive Cost-Benefit Analysis of the determinants of the economic impact of the 2010 World Cup based on the premise that the identification of the relative costs and benefits of staging the event was regarded as a greater contribution to the body of knowledge on the topic. It can be expected that there will not be significant short-term economic gains; this study predicted a net cost of R8.4bn, which is marginally offset by short-term net intangible benefits. The short-term economic consequences of the 2010 World Cup are expected to be overshadowed by the long-term effects on revenues within the tourism industry. The image implication of hosting 2010 is the most salient factor in considering the economic impact of 2010, as an alteration in the national image can have long-term effects on FDI and tourism. It is however not a certainty that the international exposure that South Africa receives will be beneficial, in the instance that the World Cup is characterised by poor organisational measures or crime. The net impact of hosting is expected to be a function of the long-term benefits, which can be expected to exceed the short-terms costs, and derive a cumulative net benefit from staging 2010. The World Cup is however unlikely to stimulate the economic growth rate above levels that would have occurred had the event not been held in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
Creative Cities and Regional Development: The Case of Makhanda and the Creative City Project
- Authors: Campbell, Guy John
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be assigned
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/174448 , vital:42478
- Description: Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
- Authors: Campbell, Guy John
- Date: 2021
- Subjects: To be assigned
- Language: English
- Type: thesis , text , Masters , MCOM
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/174448 , vital:42478
- Description: Thesis (MSc)--Rhodes University, Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2020
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2021
Credit extension in South Africa: an analysis of the impact of interest rates and income levels on the level of household debt
- Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
- Authors: Widdop, James Stuart Hailstones
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/4988 , vital:20750
- Description: The recent growth in the unsecured lending market and the bankruptcy of African Bank Investments Limited have brought to light concerns regarding credit extension and the level of household indebtedness in South Africa. This study seeks to investigate the relevant aspects of credit extension in both the secured and unsecured lending markets by firstly analysing contemporary literature and then conducting a more formal empirical analysis. A VAR model is estimated to examine the effects household disposable income and interest rates have on the level of household debt in South Africa for the period 1995Q1-2015Q3. The empirical results indicate that there is no significant deterministic relationship between household disposable income and household debt. However, the results show that such a relationship does exist between interest rate and household debt. Finally, impulse response functions obtained from the VAR estimation are examined which indicate that both shocks too household disposable income and interest rates effect the level of household debt, but that this effect returns to equilibrium within six periods.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2017
Cultural clusters as a local economic development strategy in rural, small town areas: the Sarah Baartman District in the Eastern Cape of South Africa
- Authors: Drummond, Fiona Jane
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Cultural industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Creative ability -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Arts -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Culture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Economic development projects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71568 , vital:29879
- Description: It is increasingly recognized that the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) can play an important role in economic growth and development. Governments around the world, including South Africa, are implementing culture‐led economic growth and development strategies on national and regional scales. CCIs tend to cluster around large cities because of existing hard and soft infrastructure such as networking advantages and access to skilled labour, however, much less is known about the potential of the CCIs to drive rural development. This thesis thus investigates the potential of the CCIs to cluster in small towns and rural areas. Moreover, it examines the relationship between the CCIs and socio‐economic development. The CCIs have been touted as a catalyst for economic growth and development and so have often been used in urban regeneration schemes. The Sarah Baartman District (SBD) of South Africa’s Eastern Cape has identified culture as a potential new economic driver. Establishing a new development path is necessary as the former economic mainstay, agriculture, has declined in the region, creating poverty and unemployment problems. However, the SBD has only small towns which, according to the literature, are not suited to CCI clustering. Despite this, there is evidence of cultural clustering in some of the SBD’s small towns like Nieu Bethesda and Bathurst. This research therefore conducted an audit of the CCIs in the district and used geographic information systems (GIS) to map their locations by UNESCO Framework of Cultural Statistics (FCS) domains in order to determine the extent to which clustering has occurred in a small town setting. The audit identified 1 048 CCIs operating in the district and determined that clustering is possible within some small towns, depending on their demographic, economic, social, geographic and historic characteristics. For small towns where clusters exist or the potential for cluster formation is present, the domains in which the town holds a comparative advantage, based on domain proportions and location quotients, should be pursued for local economic development (LED). In this case, Visual Arts and Crafts and Cultural Heritage were prominent throughout the district while Design and Creative Services and Performance and Celebration had small regional concentrations. Theory suggests that the presence of CCIs is linked to higher levels of economic development as the creative class is more likely to be attracted to more highly developed areas, usually large cities. Furthermore, spillover effects from cultural activity promotes further development under the virtuous cycle. To investigate the relationship between CCI clusters and socio‐economic development, the locational data of municipal level CCI numbers is overlaid with a regional development indicator, a socio‐economic status index, which is based on census data and includes economic and social components. Results show that there is a general positive trend of CCIs locating in larger numbers (clustering) in areas with higher socio‐economic development performances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
- Authors: Drummond, Fiona Jane
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: Cultural industries -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Creative ability -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Arts -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Culture -- Economic aspects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Economic development -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape , Economic development projects -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/71568 , vital:29879
- Description: It is increasingly recognized that the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) can play an important role in economic growth and development. Governments around the world, including South Africa, are implementing culture‐led economic growth and development strategies on national and regional scales. CCIs tend to cluster around large cities because of existing hard and soft infrastructure such as networking advantages and access to skilled labour, however, much less is known about the potential of the CCIs to drive rural development. This thesis thus investigates the potential of the CCIs to cluster in small towns and rural areas. Moreover, it examines the relationship between the CCIs and socio‐economic development. The CCIs have been touted as a catalyst for economic growth and development and so have often been used in urban regeneration schemes. The Sarah Baartman District (SBD) of South Africa’s Eastern Cape has identified culture as a potential new economic driver. Establishing a new development path is necessary as the former economic mainstay, agriculture, has declined in the region, creating poverty and unemployment problems. However, the SBD has only small towns which, according to the literature, are not suited to CCI clustering. Despite this, there is evidence of cultural clustering in some of the SBD’s small towns like Nieu Bethesda and Bathurst. This research therefore conducted an audit of the CCIs in the district and used geographic information systems (GIS) to map their locations by UNESCO Framework of Cultural Statistics (FCS) domains in order to determine the extent to which clustering has occurred in a small town setting. The audit identified 1 048 CCIs operating in the district and determined that clustering is possible within some small towns, depending on their demographic, economic, social, geographic and historic characteristics. For small towns where clusters exist or the potential for cluster formation is present, the domains in which the town holds a comparative advantage, based on domain proportions and location quotients, should be pursued for local economic development (LED). In this case, Visual Arts and Crafts and Cultural Heritage were prominent throughout the district while Design and Creative Services and Performance and Celebration had small regional concentrations. Theory suggests that the presence of CCIs is linked to higher levels of economic development as the creative class is more likely to be attracted to more highly developed areas, usually large cities. Furthermore, spillover effects from cultural activity promotes further development under the virtuous cycle. To investigate the relationship between CCI clusters and socio‐economic development, the locational data of municipal level CCI numbers is overlaid with a regional development indicator, a socio‐economic status index, which is based on census data and includes economic and social components. Results show that there is a general positive trend of CCIs locating in larger numbers (clustering) in areas with higher socio‐economic development performances.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2019
Day-of-the-week effect : evidence from nine sectors of the South African stock market
- Authors: Mbululu, Douglas
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002759 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
- Authors: Mbululu, Douglas
- Date: 2010
- Subjects: Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1024 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002759 , Stock exchanges -- South Africa , Johannesburg Stock Exchange , Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa
- Description: The day-of-the-week effect in share prices is one of the most extensively researched anomalies, especially in developed markets. However, emerging African stock markets have received little attention in this regard. This study breaks new ground in using non-parametric tests directly on skewness and kurtosis to examine whether the day-of-he-week effect exists in nine listed stock market sector indices of the JSE Securities Exchange of South Africa (JSE). Different day-of-the-week effects were found to be present in the statistical moments of returns of these nine JSE sectors
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2010
Developing a socio-economic framework for assessing the effectiveness of Expanded Public Works Programmes (EPWP): The case of the Prosopis mesquite Working for Water clearing project in the Northern Cape Province, South Africa
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Public works South Africa Northern Cape Evaluation , Mesquite , South Africa. Expanded Public Works Programme , Working for Water Programme , Project management Case studies , Livelihood
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419219 , vital:71626 , DOI 10.21504/10962/419219
- Description: The EPWP functions as a bridge between unemployment and entry into the labour market by providing work readiness skills training to its beneficiaries who receive below-market rate stipends for the short- term duration of their participation. The EPWP combines service delivery issues with social development objectives by promoting intensive manual labour in its projects. As a social protection strategy, public works programmes cater to those who do not meet the criteria to receive government social grants. As one of the programmes under the EPWP dealing with the control and eradication of invasive alien plants, the Working for Water (WfW) programme also uses intensive manual labour methods for clearing alien plant species. Although the clearing successes of WfW are well documented, the programme has focused little attention to the longer-term livelihood impacts of the temporary work and skills training provided to beneficiaries. This study suggests this could be due to a lack of the appropriate indicators to measure these outcomes. Therefore, an evaluation framework for environmental public works projects is proposed, which consists of outcome indicators to track the livelihood impact of the work experience and skills training on the beneficiaries post-participation, since the aim of these EPWP interventions is to improve beneficiaries’ labour market outcomes. The Northern Cape province’s Prosopis mesquite clearing project was used as the case study to develop and test the evaluation framework. The outcome indicators were informed by the key stakeholders’ interviews and the beneficiaries’ survey, specifically since the beneficiaries were well placed to give feedback on the benefits of the work experience and training post-participation. The combined strengths of the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and the Capability Approach were useful for formulating the outcomes indicators, while the indicators for the inputs, activities and outputs were formulated from the key stakeholder interviews and online EPWP reports. A mixed methods approach was used and primary data were collected through key stakeholder interviews with the Prosopis mesquite clearing project managers and an online survey with some of the beneficiaries. Online EPWP reports and records obtained from WfW were used as secondary data. Data analysis used RStudio, Microsoft Excel and GraphPad Prism. The data analysis and evaluation framework indicators constituted the results section and aimed to highlight the factors that managers should focus on to achieve the desired livelihood outcomes. The proposed outcome indicators can be used to gauge the effectiveness of environmental public works’ social development interventions. The results revealed that the project budget fluctuations resulted in the Working for Water managers adopting a myopic view in administering the workdays and skills training, which diminished the livelihood impact of the Prosopis mesquite clearing project to merely a ‘make work’ project with no observable longer-term livelihood benefits. The selection input indicators and their utilisation during project activities needs to be better aligned with the desired longer-term livelihood outcomes that these environmental public works projects seek to achieve, mainly that of preparing beneficiaries for jobs in the labour market. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
- Authors: Ntsonge, Sinazo
- Date: 2023-10-13
- Subjects: Public works South Africa Northern Cape Evaluation , Mesquite , South Africa. Expanded Public Works Programme , Working for Water Programme , Project management Case studies , Livelihood
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/419219 , vital:71626 , DOI 10.21504/10962/419219
- Description: The EPWP functions as a bridge between unemployment and entry into the labour market by providing work readiness skills training to its beneficiaries who receive below-market rate stipends for the short- term duration of their participation. The EPWP combines service delivery issues with social development objectives by promoting intensive manual labour in its projects. As a social protection strategy, public works programmes cater to those who do not meet the criteria to receive government social grants. As one of the programmes under the EPWP dealing with the control and eradication of invasive alien plants, the Working for Water (WfW) programme also uses intensive manual labour methods for clearing alien plant species. Although the clearing successes of WfW are well documented, the programme has focused little attention to the longer-term livelihood impacts of the temporary work and skills training provided to beneficiaries. This study suggests this could be due to a lack of the appropriate indicators to measure these outcomes. Therefore, an evaluation framework for environmental public works projects is proposed, which consists of outcome indicators to track the livelihood impact of the work experience and skills training on the beneficiaries post-participation, since the aim of these EPWP interventions is to improve beneficiaries’ labour market outcomes. The Northern Cape province’s Prosopis mesquite clearing project was used as the case study to develop and test the evaluation framework. The outcome indicators were informed by the key stakeholders’ interviews and the beneficiaries’ survey, specifically since the beneficiaries were well placed to give feedback on the benefits of the work experience and training post-participation. The combined strengths of the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and the Capability Approach were useful for formulating the outcomes indicators, while the indicators for the inputs, activities and outputs were formulated from the key stakeholder interviews and online EPWP reports. A mixed methods approach was used and primary data were collected through key stakeholder interviews with the Prosopis mesquite clearing project managers and an online survey with some of the beneficiaries. Online EPWP reports and records obtained from WfW were used as secondary data. Data analysis used RStudio, Microsoft Excel and GraphPad Prism. The data analysis and evaluation framework indicators constituted the results section and aimed to highlight the factors that managers should focus on to achieve the desired livelihood outcomes. The proposed outcome indicators can be used to gauge the effectiveness of environmental public works’ social development interventions. The results revealed that the project budget fluctuations resulted in the Working for Water managers adopting a myopic view in administering the workdays and skills training, which diminished the livelihood impact of the Prosopis mesquite clearing project to merely a ‘make work’ project with no observable longer-term livelihood benefits. The selection input indicators and their utilisation during project activities needs to be better aligned with the desired longer-term livelihood outcomes that these environmental public works projects seek to achieve, mainly that of preparing beneficiaries for jobs in the labour market. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2023
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2023-10-13
Does primary resource-based industrialisation offer an escape from underdevelopment?
- Authors: Ali, Fatimah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002753 , Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Description: It is commonly believed about sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the region has a comparative advantage in primary resources as reflected by its high share of primary exports to total exports. In acknowledging the region's comparative advantage, the study tries to put the determinants from the Wood and Mayer (1998, (999) (W-M) Heckscher-Ohlin based model in the context of two relatively diversified countries (South Africa and Mauritius) and two commodity-export-dependent countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Cô̌̌te d'Ivoire). The study finds that the skill and land resource measures used in the W -M (1998, 1999) thesis do not explain why Nigeria, having a similar level of skill per worker ratio to South Africa, has not diversified. Further, Mauritius having relatively the highest skill per land ratio specialises in low-skill textiles and clothing, while South Africa specialises in the more human capital-intensive "other manufactures" group. The other measure, a low land per worker ratio that explains Mauritius' relatively higher share of manufacturing exports, also fails to apply to Nigeria. The thesis thus concludes that the W-M land and skill measures could only be rough proxies in determining comparative advantage in manufacturing exports. However, employing the Dutch disease hypothesis recognises the potential of land abundance as a natural resource, namely minerals in South Africa, oil in Nigeria, and cocoa in Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire. The Dutch disease is a dynamic process of structural economic and political development that will permit an understanding of why natural resource abundant countries do not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing, at least in the short to medium term. The study therefore investigates commodity dependence and the Dutch disease effects to examine whether primary resource- based industrialisation offers an escape from underdevelopment. It establishes that South Africa, a mineral resource rich country, diversified based on a broad mineral-energy-complex (MEC) reinforcing the notion that land abundant countries will first invest in capital- intensive primary resource processing. However, the thesis concludes that in Nigeria and Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire where external shocks are more predominant probably because of single commodity export reliance, the manufacturing sector lags behind more due to resource and spending effects that a natural resource boom generates in these economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
- Authors: Ali, Fatimah
- Date: 2006
- Subjects: Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: vital:1018 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002753 , Comparative advantage (International trade) , Exports -- Africa, West , Exports -- Mauritius , Exports -- South Africa , Foreign trade promotion -- Mauritius , International trade , Primary commodities -- Africa , Human capital -- Economic aspects -- Africa , Natural resources -- Africa , Africa -- Commerce
- Description: It is commonly believed about sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the region has a comparative advantage in primary resources as reflected by its high share of primary exports to total exports. In acknowledging the region's comparative advantage, the study tries to put the determinants from the Wood and Mayer (1998, (999) (W-M) Heckscher-Ohlin based model in the context of two relatively diversified countries (South Africa and Mauritius) and two commodity-export-dependent countries of sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and Cô̌̌te d'Ivoire). The study finds that the skill and land resource measures used in the W -M (1998, 1999) thesis do not explain why Nigeria, having a similar level of skill per worker ratio to South Africa, has not diversified. Further, Mauritius having relatively the highest skill per land ratio specialises in low-skill textiles and clothing, while South Africa specialises in the more human capital-intensive "other manufactures" group. The other measure, a low land per worker ratio that explains Mauritius' relatively higher share of manufacturing exports, also fails to apply to Nigeria. The thesis thus concludes that the W-M land and skill measures could only be rough proxies in determining comparative advantage in manufacturing exports. However, employing the Dutch disease hypothesis recognises the potential of land abundance as a natural resource, namely minerals in South Africa, oil in Nigeria, and cocoa in Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire. The Dutch disease is a dynamic process of structural economic and political development that will permit an understanding of why natural resource abundant countries do not have a comparative advantage in manufacturing, at least in the short to medium term. The study therefore investigates commodity dependence and the Dutch disease effects to examine whether primary resource- based industrialisation offers an escape from underdevelopment. It establishes that South Africa, a mineral resource rich country, diversified based on a broad mineral-energy-complex (MEC) reinforcing the notion that land abundant countries will first invest in capital- intensive primary resource processing. However, the thesis concludes that in Nigeria and Cǒ̌te d'Ivoire where external shocks are more predominant probably because of single commodity export reliance, the manufacturing sector lags behind more due to resource and spending effects that a natural resource boom generates in these economies.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2006
Economic dualism and labour re-allocation in South Africa, 1917-1970
- Authors: Hindson, Douglas Carlisle
- Date: 1975
- Subjects: Labor policy -- South Africa -- History -- 20th century , Labor laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1090 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012294 , Labor policy -- South Africa -- History -- 20th century , Labor laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa
- Description: The central concern of this study is to analyse how the pattern of development in South Africa has influenced the long term growth of productive employment in the economy. The approach adopted is to appply a model of economic dualism to the South African case. Chapter 1, p. 1.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1975
- Authors: Hindson, Douglas Carlisle
- Date: 1975
- Subjects: Labor policy -- South Africa -- History -- 20th century , Labor laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MA
- Identifier: vital:1090 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1012294 , Labor policy -- South Africa -- History -- 20th century , Labor laws and legislation -- South Africa , Labor economics -- South Africa
- Description: The central concern of this study is to analyse how the pattern of development in South Africa has influenced the long term growth of productive employment in the economy. The approach adopted is to appply a model of economic dualism to the South African case. Chapter 1, p. 1.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1975
Economic evaluation of chemical and biological control methods on four aquatic weeds in South Africa
- Authors: Maluleke, Mary
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Invasive plants -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Introduced organisms -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic resources -- Management , Cost effectiveness , Net present value , Herbicides -- Cost effectiveness , Working for Water Programme , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145953 , vital:38481
- Description: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) of various kinds pose a threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, conservation and overall economy. In a world experiencing exponential increase in IAPs – this issue has become endemic, especially for developing countries such as South Africa. South Africa is a water scarce country and IAPs increase water stress. Thus, South Africa must invest in a more realistic, environmentally and economically inclusive policy outlook on the management of IAPs including aquatic weeds. This is especially urgent when considering the changing global climate, which is predicted to further reduce the quantity and quality of potable water. The Working for Water Programme (WfW) in South Africa aimed at addressing the issue of IAPs in a way that protects the environment as well as produces maximum return to society through poverty alleviation. As such, the aquatic weeds management strategy put in place for four of South Africa’s aquatic weeds Pista stratiotes, Salvinia molesta, Azolla filiculoides and Myriophyllum aquaticum - should be one that is cost-effective, efficient and sustainable; yielding the best possible return on investment. Since these four weeds are already under complete biological control, in the absence of biological agents, the WfW programme would have used herbicides to control these weeds. As such, this thesis conducted a retrospective analysis of the relative herbicide cost-saving associated with the use of biological control. To do this, due to existing limitations, E. crassipes was used as a surrogate weed and its herbicide control costs were used as proxy for the herbicide control cost estimates of the four selected weeds; with reasonable conversion factors applied to cater for the biological difference of the five weeds. Using the cost benefit analysis (CBA) framework, the net present cost (NPC) of each control method was calculated to which the relative cost-saving was considered to represent the avoided cost of using biological control instead of chemical control on these weeds. The avoided cost was used as the main benefit component when deriving the relative benefit cost ratios (BCR). Two scenarios were used, one assuming no follow-up requirement and the other assuming one follow-up requirement for chemical control. Using an 8% discount rate, the study found that the estimated cost of the biological control method on all four aquatic weeds was about R7,843,205 while for chemical control the estimated costs would have costed R149,580,142, R268,264,838 and R881,711,738 for application by means of a boat, bakkie and knapsack. Chemical control cost estimates would have increased to about R164,538,052, R295,216,120 and R1,008,761,000 for boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively when including a possible follow-up programme. These would have led to positive BCRs of 90.24:1, 164.97:1 and 557.99:1 across the three chemical control approaches without a follow-up (with BCR of about 99.67:1, 182.00:1 and 631.56:1 for the boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively with the accepted follow-up programme). When running a sensitivity test with varying discount rates of 5% and 10%, these results remained robust. As such, failing to reject the dominant hypothesis in literature, the main conclusion of the study is that biological control is indeed the more cost-effective management option compared to chemical control with respect to herbicide cost-saving. Further, biological control is most-likely to produce more environmental cost-saving and water-saving over chemical control. The study recommends the continued use of the biological control investment on the four aquatic weeds under study as well as on emerging aquatic weeds such as Iris pseudacorus, Nymphaea mexicana and Sagittaria platyphylla in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Economic evaluation of chemical and biological control methods on four aquatic weeds in South Africa
- Authors: Maluleke, Mary
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Invasive plants -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Introduced organisms -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Biological control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic weeds -- Control -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Aquatic resources -- Management , Cost effectiveness , Net present value , Herbicides -- Cost effectiveness , Working for Water Programme , Water conservation -- South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MCom
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/145953 , vital:38481
- Description: Invasive alien plants (IAPs) of various kinds pose a threat to ecosystems, biodiversity, conservation and overall economy. In a world experiencing exponential increase in IAPs – this issue has become endemic, especially for developing countries such as South Africa. South Africa is a water scarce country and IAPs increase water stress. Thus, South Africa must invest in a more realistic, environmentally and economically inclusive policy outlook on the management of IAPs including aquatic weeds. This is especially urgent when considering the changing global climate, which is predicted to further reduce the quantity and quality of potable water. The Working for Water Programme (WfW) in South Africa aimed at addressing the issue of IAPs in a way that protects the environment as well as produces maximum return to society through poverty alleviation. As such, the aquatic weeds management strategy put in place for four of South Africa’s aquatic weeds Pista stratiotes, Salvinia molesta, Azolla filiculoides and Myriophyllum aquaticum - should be one that is cost-effective, efficient and sustainable; yielding the best possible return on investment. Since these four weeds are already under complete biological control, in the absence of biological agents, the WfW programme would have used herbicides to control these weeds. As such, this thesis conducted a retrospective analysis of the relative herbicide cost-saving associated with the use of biological control. To do this, due to existing limitations, E. crassipes was used as a surrogate weed and its herbicide control costs were used as proxy for the herbicide control cost estimates of the four selected weeds; with reasonable conversion factors applied to cater for the biological difference of the five weeds. Using the cost benefit analysis (CBA) framework, the net present cost (NPC) of each control method was calculated to which the relative cost-saving was considered to represent the avoided cost of using biological control instead of chemical control on these weeds. The avoided cost was used as the main benefit component when deriving the relative benefit cost ratios (BCR). Two scenarios were used, one assuming no follow-up requirement and the other assuming one follow-up requirement for chemical control. Using an 8% discount rate, the study found that the estimated cost of the biological control method on all four aquatic weeds was about R7,843,205 while for chemical control the estimated costs would have costed R149,580,142, R268,264,838 and R881,711,738 for application by means of a boat, bakkie and knapsack. Chemical control cost estimates would have increased to about R164,538,052, R295,216,120 and R1,008,761,000 for boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively when including a possible follow-up programme. These would have led to positive BCRs of 90.24:1, 164.97:1 and 557.99:1 across the three chemical control approaches without a follow-up (with BCR of about 99.67:1, 182.00:1 and 631.56:1 for the boat, bakkie and knapsack approach respectively with the accepted follow-up programme). When running a sensitivity test with varying discount rates of 5% and 10%, these results remained robust. As such, failing to reject the dominant hypothesis in literature, the main conclusion of the study is that biological control is indeed the more cost-effective management option compared to chemical control with respect to herbicide cost-saving. Further, biological control is most-likely to produce more environmental cost-saving and water-saving over chemical control. The study recommends the continued use of the biological control investment on the four aquatic weeds under study as well as on emerging aquatic weeds such as Iris pseudacorus, Nymphaea mexicana and Sagittaria platyphylla in South Africa.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2020
Economic impact studies and methodological bias : the case of the National Arts Festival in South Africa
- Authors: Bragge, Brent Reuben
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects Performing arts festivals- Economic aspects -- South Africa Arts -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Economic impact analysis Edinburgh International Festival -- Economic aspects Klein Karoo Nasionale Kunstefees (Oudtshoorn, South Africa) -- Economic aspects Volksbladfees (Bloemfontein, South Africa) -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:968 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002702
- Description: Over the course of the last three decades, it has become popular practice to evaluate tourism events like cultural festivals in financial terms, through the use of economic impact studies. This can be attributed at least in part to the notable growth in the number of festivals being held globally and, as such, a higher level of competition between festivals for the limited funding which is available. Economic impact studies, and the resultant findings, have thus become powerful tools for the lobbying of sponsorship, and it has become increasingly important that the impact calculations be as accurate as possible, so as to effectively allocate both government and private resources to projects which will be of the greatest benefit to the host region. The allocation of funding is especially vital in an area like the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, which is faced with many financial difficulties. The allocation of public funds to an event like the National Arts Festival, which is hosted in a relatively wealthy part of the province, might be weighed against initiatives which directly benefit the poorer parts of the region. Although it is acknowledged that the benefits which are felt by the host community of a cultural event go beyond that of the financial, it is often on this basis that festivals are most easily compared. The primary goal of the thesis was to analyse the various forms of methodological bias which can exist in the economic impact analyses (EIA) associated with cultural events. Theoretical considerations were discussed, specifically regarding economic impact as a method of measuring value. Various forms of bias (including data collection, the calculation of visitor numbers, multipliers, defining the area of interest, inclusion of visitor spending, and accounting for benefits only, not costs) are put into a real-life context, through the investigation of economic impact studies conducted on three selected South African festivals (the Volksblad, the Klein Karoo Nasionale Kunstfees, and the National Arts Festival), and one international festival (the Edinburgh Festival). An in-depth comparison of two separate studies conducted at the National Arts Festival (NAF) in 2004 (by Antrobus and Snowball) and 2005 (by Saayman et al.) was made, focussing on the manner in which the economic impact was calculated. Having considered the common forms of bias, and assessing several possible reasons for the difference of approximately twenty million Rand in the advertised economic impacts, it was concluded that, most likely, the miscalculation of visitor numbers was the cause. This was confirmed when the Antrobus and Saayman methods were applied to the 2006 NAF data, and noting that the economic impact figures arrived at were strikingly similar. As such, it is advisable that extreme caution be taken when calculating visitor numbers, as they can significantly influence the outcome of an economic impact study. It is recommended that each study should also have transparent checks in place, regarding the key calculation figures, to ensure that less scrupulous researchers are not as easily able to succumb to the pressure event sponsors might impose to produce inflated impact values.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
- Authors: Bragge, Brent Reuben
- Date: 2011
- Subjects: Standard Bank National Arts Festival Standard Bank National Arts Festival -- Economic aspects Performing arts festivals- Economic aspects -- South Africa Arts -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Economic impact analysis Edinburgh International Festival -- Economic aspects Klein Karoo Nasionale Kunstefees (Oudtshoorn, South Africa) -- Economic aspects Volksbladfees (Bloemfontein, South Africa) -- Economic aspects
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Masters , MEcon
- Identifier: vital:968 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002702
- Description: Over the course of the last three decades, it has become popular practice to evaluate tourism events like cultural festivals in financial terms, through the use of economic impact studies. This can be attributed at least in part to the notable growth in the number of festivals being held globally and, as such, a higher level of competition between festivals for the limited funding which is available. Economic impact studies, and the resultant findings, have thus become powerful tools for the lobbying of sponsorship, and it has become increasingly important that the impact calculations be as accurate as possible, so as to effectively allocate both government and private resources to projects which will be of the greatest benefit to the host region. The allocation of funding is especially vital in an area like the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, which is faced with many financial difficulties. The allocation of public funds to an event like the National Arts Festival, which is hosted in a relatively wealthy part of the province, might be weighed against initiatives which directly benefit the poorer parts of the region. Although it is acknowledged that the benefits which are felt by the host community of a cultural event go beyond that of the financial, it is often on this basis that festivals are most easily compared. The primary goal of the thesis was to analyse the various forms of methodological bias which can exist in the economic impact analyses (EIA) associated with cultural events. Theoretical considerations were discussed, specifically regarding economic impact as a method of measuring value. Various forms of bias (including data collection, the calculation of visitor numbers, multipliers, defining the area of interest, inclusion of visitor spending, and accounting for benefits only, not costs) are put into a real-life context, through the investigation of economic impact studies conducted on three selected South African festivals (the Volksblad, the Klein Karoo Nasionale Kunstfees, and the National Arts Festival), and one international festival (the Edinburgh Festival). An in-depth comparison of two separate studies conducted at the National Arts Festival (NAF) in 2004 (by Antrobus and Snowball) and 2005 (by Saayman et al.) was made, focussing on the manner in which the economic impact was calculated. Having considered the common forms of bias, and assessing several possible reasons for the difference of approximately twenty million Rand in the advertised economic impacts, it was concluded that, most likely, the miscalculation of visitor numbers was the cause. This was confirmed when the Antrobus and Saayman methods were applied to the 2006 NAF data, and noting that the economic impact figures arrived at were strikingly similar. As such, it is advisable that extreme caution be taken when calculating visitor numbers, as they can significantly influence the outcome of an economic impact study. It is recommended that each study should also have transparent checks in place, regarding the key calculation figures, to ensure that less scrupulous researchers are not as easily able to succumb to the pressure event sponsors might impose to produce inflated impact values.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2011
Effects of household debt on economic growth in South Africa
- Authors: Bwalya, Rachael Mulenga
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434766 , vital:73103
- Description: South Africa’s household debt relative to GDP has risen rapidly over the past decade. There is concern that high levels of household debt may decrease spending in the future and hence in the long run slow down economic growth. Thus, this study investigates the impact of household debt on growth in South Africa from 1987Q3 to 2022Q1. The research draws upon first-generation theories which include the absolute income hypothesis, life cycle hypothesis, and permanent income hypothesis, and second-generation theories which include the neo-Kaleckian model, the Super multiplier model, and the Steindl model. The impact of this relationship is assessed using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, with a Toda-Yamamoto modification for some regressions. It is discovered that household debt has a positive short-term influence on economic growth, however, the influence is weak, and it decreases in the long run. Types of household debt such as credit card debt have shown to have a positive and strong influence on economic growth in South Africa from the short run to the long run, however, mortgage debt has shown weak positive influence on economic growth from the short 105 run to the long run. The study found that the growth maximizing ratios for household debt to 106 GDP ratio is 70 percent. The growth maximising credit card debt level is ZAR 72 403, in nominal terms and for mortgage debt is ZAR 5 980 000. The findings are expected to assist policymakers such as central banks and government authorities in formulating relevant policies to ensure economic sustainability through macro-prudential policy and strategies for household debt management. , Thesis (MEcon) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
- Authors: Bwalya, Rachael Mulenga
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Master's theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434766 , vital:73103
- Description: South Africa’s household debt relative to GDP has risen rapidly over the past decade. There is concern that high levels of household debt may decrease spending in the future and hence in the long run slow down economic growth. Thus, this study investigates the impact of household debt on growth in South Africa from 1987Q3 to 2022Q1. The research draws upon first-generation theories which include the absolute income hypothesis, life cycle hypothesis, and permanent income hypothesis, and second-generation theories which include the neo-Kaleckian model, the Super multiplier model, and the Steindl model. The impact of this relationship is assessed using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, with a Toda-Yamamoto modification for some regressions. It is discovered that household debt has a positive short-term influence on economic growth, however, the influence is weak, and it decreases in the long run. Types of household debt such as credit card debt have shown to have a positive and strong influence on economic growth in South Africa from the short run to the long run, however, mortgage debt has shown weak positive influence on economic growth from the short 105 run to the long run. The study found that the growth maximizing ratios for household debt to 106 GDP ratio is 70 percent. The growth maximising credit card debt level is ZAR 72 403, in nominal terms and for mortgage debt is ZAR 5 980 000. The findings are expected to assist policymakers such as central banks and government authorities in formulating relevant policies to ensure economic sustainability through macro-prudential policy and strategies for household debt management. , Thesis (MEcon) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
Electricity demand and supply in South Africa: is nuclear energy a feasible alternative to coal for baseload energy supply in South Africa?
- Authors: Maqanda, Vuyani
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434802 , vital:73106 , DOI 10.21504/10962/434802
- Description: Climate change mitigation has created pressure on the energy mix choices of all countries. Highly polluting energy sources are increasingly unpopular. Renewable energy options have emerged as preferred choices for the low-emissions transition. Proponents of nuclear power have promoted the technology as a low-emissions technology by focusing on the operational phase and ignoring the other polluting phases. South Africa generated about 83% of its electricity supply from coal in 2019 and was rated as the 12th most polluting country in the world. In addition to the high pollution levels, the ageing coal fleet suffered from poor maintenance that resulted in frequent power blackouts. One of the government’s energy plans from 2010 proposed the addition of 9 600 MW of nuclear capacity by 2030. However, this plan was not implemented. This study investigates why nuclear power historically never expanded beyond a single power facility in South Africa as well as the possible future role of nuclear power in alleviating South Africa’s current electricity supply constraints and emissions commitments in the period up to 2050. Qualitative analysis is used for this study with a focus on historical document analysis and interviews with energy experts. Two research methods, case studies, and expert opinions were used in this study with data sourced from policy documents, Statistics South Africa, the World Bank, and published articles from various platforms. The Hotelling model, focusing on the impact of price differentials on energy transitions, was used as a theoretical framework. The conclusion from applying the model was that nuclear power was more expensive than the other options even when internalisation of pollution externalities was considered and therefore nuclear power could not displace the cheaper alternatives like coal based on price factors alone. The Multi-Level Perspective, working through institutions, revealed that the institutional setting did not support a transition to nuclear energy. The lack of coordination of strategies derailed the transition. The comparative case study analysis of Germany, the UK, Australia, and India reaffirmed this as countries with better coordination succeeded in transitions. Energy experts offered differing views on the feasibility of nuclear power but many agreed that South Africa should focus on technologies it has better competencies in. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
- Authors: Maqanda, Vuyani
- Date: 2024-04-03
- Subjects: Uncatalogued
- Language: English
- Type: Academic theses , Doctoral theses , text
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/434802 , vital:73106 , DOI 10.21504/10962/434802
- Description: Climate change mitigation has created pressure on the energy mix choices of all countries. Highly polluting energy sources are increasingly unpopular. Renewable energy options have emerged as preferred choices for the low-emissions transition. Proponents of nuclear power have promoted the technology as a low-emissions technology by focusing on the operational phase and ignoring the other polluting phases. South Africa generated about 83% of its electricity supply from coal in 2019 and was rated as the 12th most polluting country in the world. In addition to the high pollution levels, the ageing coal fleet suffered from poor maintenance that resulted in frequent power blackouts. One of the government’s energy plans from 2010 proposed the addition of 9 600 MW of nuclear capacity by 2030. However, this plan was not implemented. This study investigates why nuclear power historically never expanded beyond a single power facility in South Africa as well as the possible future role of nuclear power in alleviating South Africa’s current electricity supply constraints and emissions commitments in the period up to 2050. Qualitative analysis is used for this study with a focus on historical document analysis and interviews with energy experts. Two research methods, case studies, and expert opinions were used in this study with data sourced from policy documents, Statistics South Africa, the World Bank, and published articles from various platforms. The Hotelling model, focusing on the impact of price differentials on energy transitions, was used as a theoretical framework. The conclusion from applying the model was that nuclear power was more expensive than the other options even when internalisation of pollution externalities was considered and therefore nuclear power could not displace the cheaper alternatives like coal based on price factors alone. The Multi-Level Perspective, working through institutions, revealed that the institutional setting did not support a transition to nuclear energy. The lack of coordination of strategies derailed the transition. The comparative case study analysis of Germany, the UK, Australia, and India reaffirmed this as countries with better coordination succeeded in transitions. Energy experts offered differing views on the feasibility of nuclear power but many agreed that South Africa should focus on technologies it has better competencies in. , Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 2024
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2024-04-03
Energy use patterns and trends: the impact of energy policy in South African low-income households
- Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Authors: Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Energy security -- South Africa , Households -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Poor -- Energy assistance -- South Africa , Poor -- South Africa , University of Cape Town. National Income Dynamics Study , Free Basic Electricity Policy (South Africa) , Income and Expenditure Survey (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62264 , vital:28148
- Description: Energy poverty is a growing concern especially amongst low-income populations in developing countries. The transition to modern energy carriers is associated with welfare improvement and it is considered as an important developmental goal to achieve, in order to eradicate energy poverty. As such, the South African government has made energy poverty an issue of policy focus. Literature abounds with different measures of energy poverty; energy programmes and policies are also aimed at improving the welfare of the low-income households in terms of basic services such as electricity. As a point of entry into this study, this thesis explored energy use patterns and trends in low-income South African households. The research objectives addressed in the study included investigating the extent of energy poverty through a multidimensional energy poverty index, examining the extent to which the 'energy ladder' and 'energy stacking' models explains energy transition patterns and to examining whether the Free Basic Electricity Policy has impacted on energy choices and energy poverty. In order to contribute to energy poverty and energy policy discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the dimensions of energy poverty amongst low-income South African households from these three different perspectives (objectives). A positivist approach, by using a quantitative method was used to underpin the study. The study utilised secondary data, which were from the National Income Dynamics Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey. The former was used for the analysis of the multidimensional energy poverty index and energy transition patterns whilst the latter was used for the analysis of the impact of the Free Basic Electricity Policy. The four waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey, with 2008 as the base year and the 2010/2011 version of the Income and Expenditure Survey were used whilst the data were processed through the quantitative software package, STATA version 12. The data were then analysed using the multidimensional energy poverty framework by Nussbaumer et al. (2011) and econometric models, which best fit the objectives. The result of the panel analysis, which assesses the multidimensional energy poverty for low-income households in South Africa showed that low-income households in both urban and rural areas are in a moderate state of energy poverty but different levels. However, the cross-sectional analysis revealed that the percentage of low-income households that are energy poor is reducing for the rural households but increasing for their urban counterparts from 2008 to 2014. The panel and cross-sectional results of the contribution of the energy dimensions in multidimensional energy poverty shows that the low-income households are especially energy poor in terms of heating fuel. The findings from the econometric estimates partly confirmed an energy ladder behaviour for the energy choice for cooking. An energy stacking behaviour was confirmed for the low- income households for these energy services - heating and lighting. Moreover, it was found that with respect to cooking and heating, low-income households living in a modern dwelling, having a small household size and residing in an urban area are less likely to use transitional or traditional energy carriers but most likely to use modern energy carriers. In addition, low-income households are more likely to use modern energy carriers for their cooking and heating in 2010, 2012 and 2014 than in 2008. For lighting energy service, low- income households living in a modern dwelling in an urban settlement are most likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting and less likely to use transitional energy carriers or candles. Only in 2014 were low-income households more likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting than in 2008. The results further showed that modern energy carriers have the highest probability of being preferred for lighting followed by cooking and lastly heating. Also emerging from the findings are that more urban low-income households are receiving the Free Basic Electricity (FBE) grant than their counterparts in the rural areas. The probability of low-income households owning entertainment/education appliance and food preserving appliance is positively influenced by access to Free Basic Electricity. The low- income households living in an urban settlement and in a modern type of dwelling supported this result. However, household size does not seems to support this result should it grow larger.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
- Authors: Israel-Akinbo, Sylvia Olawumi
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Energy policy -- Social aspects -- South Africa , Energy security -- South Africa , Households -- Economic aspects -- South Africa , Poor -- Energy assistance -- South Africa , Poor -- South Africa , University of Cape Town. National Income Dynamics Study , Free Basic Electricity Policy (South Africa) , Income and Expenditure Survey (South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: text , Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10962/62264 , vital:28148
- Description: Energy poverty is a growing concern especially amongst low-income populations in developing countries. The transition to modern energy carriers is associated with welfare improvement and it is considered as an important developmental goal to achieve, in order to eradicate energy poverty. As such, the South African government has made energy poverty an issue of policy focus. Literature abounds with different measures of energy poverty; energy programmes and policies are also aimed at improving the welfare of the low-income households in terms of basic services such as electricity. As a point of entry into this study, this thesis explored energy use patterns and trends in low-income South African households. The research objectives addressed in the study included investigating the extent of energy poverty through a multidimensional energy poverty index, examining the extent to which the 'energy ladder' and 'energy stacking' models explains energy transition patterns and to examining whether the Free Basic Electricity Policy has impacted on energy choices and energy poverty. In order to contribute to energy poverty and energy policy discussion in South Africa, this study has investigated the dimensions of energy poverty amongst low-income South African households from these three different perspectives (objectives). A positivist approach, by using a quantitative method was used to underpin the study. The study utilised secondary data, which were from the National Income Dynamics Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey. The former was used for the analysis of the multidimensional energy poverty index and energy transition patterns whilst the latter was used for the analysis of the impact of the Free Basic Electricity Policy. The four waves of the National Income Dynamics Survey, with 2008 as the base year and the 2010/2011 version of the Income and Expenditure Survey were used whilst the data were processed through the quantitative software package, STATA version 12. The data were then analysed using the multidimensional energy poverty framework by Nussbaumer et al. (2011) and econometric models, which best fit the objectives. The result of the panel analysis, which assesses the multidimensional energy poverty for low-income households in South Africa showed that low-income households in both urban and rural areas are in a moderate state of energy poverty but different levels. However, the cross-sectional analysis revealed that the percentage of low-income households that are energy poor is reducing for the rural households but increasing for their urban counterparts from 2008 to 2014. The panel and cross-sectional results of the contribution of the energy dimensions in multidimensional energy poverty shows that the low-income households are especially energy poor in terms of heating fuel. The findings from the econometric estimates partly confirmed an energy ladder behaviour for the energy choice for cooking. An energy stacking behaviour was confirmed for the low- income households for these energy services - heating and lighting. Moreover, it was found that with respect to cooking and heating, low-income households living in a modern dwelling, having a small household size and residing in an urban area are less likely to use transitional or traditional energy carriers but most likely to use modern energy carriers. In addition, low-income households are more likely to use modern energy carriers for their cooking and heating in 2010, 2012 and 2014 than in 2008. For lighting energy service, low- income households living in a modern dwelling in an urban settlement are most likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting and less likely to use transitional energy carriers or candles. Only in 2014 were low-income households more likely to use modern energy carriers for lighting than in 2008. The results further showed that modern energy carriers have the highest probability of being preferred for lighting followed by cooking and lastly heating. Also emerging from the findings are that more urban low-income households are receiving the Free Basic Electricity (FBE) grant than their counterparts in the rural areas. The probability of low-income households owning entertainment/education appliance and food preserving appliance is positively influenced by access to Free Basic Electricity. The low- income households living in an urban settlement and in a modern type of dwelling supported this result. However, household size does not seems to support this result should it grow larger.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 2018
Equilibrium, expectations and information : a study of the general theory, the neo-classical synthesis and modern classical macroeconomics
- Authors: Torr, Christopher
- Date: 1984
- Subjects: Macroeconomics Equilibrium (Economics) Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1035 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004515
- Description: From Introduction: It is now nearly 50 years since the appearance of Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money and the stream of articles and books on what Keynes really meant or didn't mean shows no sign of abating. In part, this dissertation is a contribution to this voluminous literature, but what follows is hardly an attempt to provide an exhaustive interpretation. Instead the General Theory is examined from a certain angle, with the title "Equilibrium, Expectations and Information" providing the framework for the investigation. That the title has been borrowed from G.B. Richdrdson's 1959 Economic Journal article is no accident. Richardson's work has been unduly neglected and his trichotomy serves as a convenient platform from which to analyse Keynes's method and those of his interpreters, in particular the approaches stemming from the work of Clower and Leijonhufvud. The information structure of the Walrasian type of general equilibrium model is also examined as the latter forms the basis of both the neo-classical interpretation of Keynes's contribution and the rational expectations approach that will be discussed. Finally Richardson's framework is applied in an analysis of two modern classical schools of thought, namely the rational expectations approach headed by Lucas, and the neoRicardian school amongst which Garegnani, Eatwell and Milgate, for example, are prominent. In a sentence, therefore, what follows is an examination of the General Theory and certain interpretations thereof as well as an analysis of modern classical macroeconomics, with the equilibrium-expectations-information framework providing the unifying theme. As will become apparent, the framework does not consist of three watertight compartments. For example, whether a system is in equilibrium or not will depend on whether the expectations of those who have the ablility to effect change are realised. The specification of which agents have this power will depend on the information with which the model builder endows the agents in the model. In discussing this, attention is drawn to Keynes's important distinction between an entrepreneur economy and a cooperative economy. The distinction between the information available to the model builder and that with which he endows the agents in the model is also emphasized.
- Full Text:
- Date Issued: 1984
- Authors: Torr, Christopher
- Date: 1984
- Subjects: Macroeconomics Equilibrium (Economics) Economics
- Language: English
- Type: Thesis , Doctoral , PhD
- Identifier: vital:1035 , http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004515
- Description: From Introduction: It is now nearly 50 years since the appearance of Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money and the stream of articles and books on what Keynes really meant or didn't mean shows no sign of abating. In part, this dissertation is a contribution to this voluminous literature, but what follows is hardly an attempt to provide an exhaustive interpretation. Instead the General Theory is examined from a certain angle, with the title "Equilibrium, Expectations and Information" providing the framework for the investigation. That the title has been borrowed from G.B. Richdrdson's 1959 Economic Journal article is no accident. Richardson's work has been unduly neglected and his trichotomy serves as a convenient platform from which to analyse Keynes's method and those of his interpreters, in particular the approaches stemming from the work of Clower and Leijonhufvud. The information structure of the Walrasian type of general equilibrium model is also examined as the latter forms the basis of both the neo-classical interpretation of Keynes's contribution and the rational expectations approach that will be discussed. Finally Richardson's framework is applied in an analysis of two modern classical schools of thought, namely the rational expectations approach headed by Lucas, and the neoRicardian school amongst which Garegnani, Eatwell and Milgate, for example, are prominent. In a sentence, therefore, what follows is an examination of the General Theory and certain interpretations thereof as well as an analysis of modern classical macroeconomics, with the equilibrium-expectations-information framework providing the unifying theme. As will become apparent, the framework does not consist of three watertight compartments. For example, whether a system is in equilibrium or not will depend on whether the expectations of those who have the ablility to effect change are realised. The specification of which agents have this power will depend on the information with which the model builder endows the agents in the model. In discussing this, attention is drawn to Keynes's important distinction between an entrepreneur economy and a cooperative economy. The distinction between the information available to the model builder and that with which he endows the agents in the model is also emphasized.
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- Date Issued: 1984